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Philip

Ok, NOW we can blather about the roster: pitching

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Regarding pitching, who do you think will get the axe/be traded before opening day? 
My votes: Hess, Phillips, Sulser, LeBlanc, Stewart, Cobb

The position guys are more complicated and warrant a separate post, but if they aren’t above the Flaherty line, they are vulnerable.

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Guys who could be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster:   Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mattson, Hanifee, Pop.   (There’s a few others who have no risk of being picked.).  How many of those get added determines how many need to be removed (more or less; right now we have 20 pitchers on the 40 man and I’d expect it to stay at about that number).   

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Guys who could be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster:   Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Mattson, Hanifee, Pop.   (There’s a few others who have no risk of being picked.).  How many of those get added determines how many need to be removed (more or less; right now we have 20 pitchers on the 40 man and I’d expect it to stay at about that number).   

Well, you listed six, I listed six, so that could work.

I’m not sure Pop is a risk to get picked, given that he had TJ and didn’t really have any post-recovery time to do game work. I would certainly choose Wells if I were the Pirates or the Rangers, because they both need pitching really badly. Not sure how risky the others would be. That’s worthy of a separate post.

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37 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, you listed six, I listed six, so that could work.

I’m not sure Pop is a risk to get picked, given that he had TJ and didn’t really have any post-recovery time to do game work. I would certainly choose Wells if I were the Pirates or the Rangers, because they both need pitching really badly. Not sure how risky the others would be. That’s worthy of a separate post.

Baumann is a huge risk, more than Wells.  His stock has shot up after his time in Bowie last year.  I am a big dynasty player, and Prospects Live has him as their 264th overall player, and Wells isn't listed.  Prospects1500 has Baumann as our 10th prospect, and Wells as our 17th.  MLB Pipeline has Baumann 10th and Wells 20th.  He has a lot more upside than Wells IMO.  

Pop has the TJS recovery but a two-pitch reliever who was a lock-down guy in AA is a worthwhile risk for the Rule 5 draft, especially with 26 man rosters now.  If I were a GM, I'd rather take the chance on a guy like Pop who could be a very good high-leverage reliever over a guy who might be a back-end starter/long reliever.  

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Most likely to least likely to be protected. 

1. Baumann

2. Lowther 

3.  Wells

4.  Mattson

5.   Haniffee

6.  Pop

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29 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

Baumann is a huge risk, more than Wells.  His stock has shot up after his time in Bowie last year.  I am a big dynasty player, and Prospects Live has him as their 264th overall player, and Wells isn't listed.  Prospects1500 has Baumann as our 10th prospect, and Wells as our 17th.  MLB Pipeline has Baumann 10th and Wells 20th.  He has a lot more upside than Wells IMO.  

Pop has the TJS recovery but a two-pitch reliever who was a lock-down guy in AA is a worthwhile risk for the Rule 5 draft, especially with 26 man rosters now.  If I were a GM, I'd rather take the chance on a guy like Pop who could be a very good high-leverage reliever over a guy who might be a back-end starter/long reliever.  

I appreciate the info, but didn’t Baumann have a serious injury? One that required one of those “we expect he’ll be ready for ST and he won’t need surgery” statements?

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5 hours ago, Philip said:

I appreciate the info, but didn’t Baumann have a serious injury? One that required one of those “we expect he’ll be ready for ST and he won’t need surgery” statements?

He was shut down but they’re saying it’s not too serious.   If I were a team that liked him, I wouldn’t let the injury risk deter me.   They can always give him back, or DL him like we did with Santander and drag out his rehab in a way that gives him plenty of MiL time before he has to serve out his “full season” in the majors. I’d be shocked if Baumann isn’t protected.  

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To me, the first thing they need to do is address the 40 man roster.  Who are you putting on and who are you cutting?

Hess, Kline, Sulser, Phillips and Stewart are all easy drops imo.

Im also not risking losing young talent while holding onto Lakins, Valdez and Jorge Lopez.   I know they talk about López in the rotation but he’s not good.  He has no business being in that discussion.  I probably also drop Eshelman but he would be last on this list and you likely don’t have to do that.

To me, clearing the deck of those types of guys is pretty simple.  You wouldn’t lose any sleep if you cut any of those names.

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49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To me, the first thing they need to do is address the 40 man roster.  Who are you putting on and who are you cutting?

Hess, Kline, Sulser, Phillips and Stewart are all easy drops imo.

Im also not risking losing young talent while holding onto Lakins, Valdez and Jorge Lopez.   I know they talk about López in the rotation but he’s not good.  He has no business being in that discussion.  I probably also drop Eshelman but he would be last on this list and you likely don’t have to do that.

To me, clearing the deck of those types of guys is pretty simple.  You wouldn’t lose any sleep if you cut any of those names.

I agree with this post.  Most of these guys are worth walking away from or trying to pass through waivers.  Except Phillips, Lakins, and Sulser.

I never jumped off the bus on Phillips.  For some reason, I always felt like he got bad luck and his stuff wasn't terrible.  What we towards the end of this season from him keeps him on the 40 because he showed flashes of what his stuff suggested at times.  He's only 25 and has a 12K/9 the last two seasons with a FIP slightly under 4.00.  I still think he has value.  Lakins is only 26 and he was a solid contributor this year.  I think Sulser was mishandled this season and does have some stuff. I would have used him like LH Reliever and I don't know if every put him in the closer spot.  I would have went with a committee from the start.   I am fine with cutting him bc of his age, but I still think he could be developed into a potential trade piece.

Lopez reminds me of an Aaron Brooks type. I can live or die without him but I bet he stays on the roster in a similar way to Wojo.  He could make it till till May or June next season before another one of our AAA guys is ready.  Eshelman did ok this year, but he doesn't fit in long term, just not enough stuff.  I like Valdez, but again, older.

My question is do you think Lakins, Valdez, Sulser, or Eshelman has done enough with this season or flashed enough "stuff" to be dealt in a trade for a Dominican League ball player or a PTBNL?  Would another team find any of these guys useful on their 40 man?

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11 hours ago, Philip said:

Regarding pitching, who do you think will get the axe/be traded before opening day? 
My votes: Hess, Phillips, Sulser, LeBlanc, Stewart, Cobb

The position guys are more complicated and warrant a separate post, but if they aren’t above the Flaherty line, they are vulnerable.

Were you attired in a smoking jacket, drinking a cabernet or "real beer" when you unwound into this droll discussion?  @Moose Milligan

 

I agree with all of your choices - succinct and non-loquacious!  😍  #dontmesswithTX 

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1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

I agree with this post.  Most of these guys are worth walking away from or trying to pass through waivers.  Except Phillips, Lakins, and Sulser.

I never jumped off the bus on Phillips.  For some reason, I always felt like he got bad luck and his stuff wasn't terrible.  What we towards the end of this season from him keeps him on the 40 because he showed flashes of what his stuff suggested at times.  He's only 25 and has a 12K/9 the last two seasons with a FIP slightly under 4.00.  I still think he has value.  Lakins is only 26 and he was a solid contributor this year.  I think Sulser was mishandled this season and does have some stuff. I would have used him like LH Reliever and I don't know if every put him in the closer spot.  I would have went with a committee from the start.   I am fine with cutting him bc of his age, but I still think he could be developed into a potential trade piece.

Lopez reminds me of an Aaron Brooks type. I can live or die without him but I bet he stays on the roster in a similar way to Wojo.  He could make it till till May or June next season before another one of our AAA guys is ready.  Eshelman did ok this year, but he doesn't fit in long term, just not enough stuff.  I like Valdez, but again, older.

My question is do you think Lakins, Valdez, Sulser, or Eshelman has done enough with this season or flashed enough "stuff" to be dealt in a trade for a Dominican League ball player or a PTBNL?  Would another team find any of these guys useful on their 40 man?

Sulser, Lakins and Phillips can be picked up at any point...in other words, those types of arms are always available..for free.

You don’t hold a place on your roster for those types of guys if it means losing younger, quality assets.

To me, it’s really that simple.

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7 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I hope they are all gone. Clean the box out. This is still a 60 win team with them. Bring up the young arms. Please.

C'mon, that's not being honest.  There could be some good pieces here.

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Cobb will be on the 40 man in November/December  but I think the O's will try to trade him and eat half his salary.

Starters (9) Means, (Cobb), Kremer  Akin, Lopez, Zimmermann, Stewart, Baumann,  Lowther

Relievers:  (1O) Harvey,  Scott, Tate, Fry, Lakins, Valdez, Pop, Eshelman, Mattson, Armstrong

My real question is will the O's offer Alberto and Nunez arbitration and risk paying them 3M each.  If they are projected to get that much in arbitration, do they have any trade value?

  

 

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10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Most likely to least likely to be protected. 

1. Baumann

2. Lowther 

3.  Wells

4.  Mattson

5.   Haniffee

6.  Pop

RZ you are normally pretty good at who gets added to the roster for the Rule 5 draft.  What is your take?  Bannon? Diaz?  Which pitchers are added?

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

RZ you are normally pretty good at who gets added to the roster for the Rule 5 draft.  What is you take?  Bannon? Diaz?  Which pitchers are added?

Thanks. I'm not following like I used to but I would say Baumann, Lowther, and Diaz are no-brainers for being added.

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