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Philip

Ok, NOW we can blather about the roster: pitching

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Realistically, could we eat 1/2 of Cobb’s salary and trade him?  I’m not so sure on that one. 
 

He’s not good enough to crack a “contenders” rotation, and he’s too expensive for a fringe contender to buy in the offseason. 
 

I think we’ll some interesting trades involving any of the players in arbitration(Nunez, Alberto, Severino), or our “established” relievers that have some value(Fry, Armstrong) Just to clear 40 man roster space. 

Given our SP situation, it’s looking like 2023 is the earliest that we could contend. Especially if we go back to the old playoff format. 

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s also a relatively irrational thought that they won’t need him.

In many ways, I’m 100% on board with what you are saying.  However, your outlook is talking about many things going right.

Lets not forget that you actually need Mancini to come back and have his skills back.  You need Santander, Hays, Stewart and (eventually) Diaz to both play well and stay healthy, something none of these guys have consistently shown they can do.

Nunez provides insurance for those issues.

Now, The flip side To that is, who cares?  If those guys are hurt or aren’t performing, Nunez doesn’t keep us afloat or carry this team when they are out. He’s just another body, even if he is offensively one of the better players on the team.

 I’m just not on board with losing him for free.  I think it’s a relatively poor move heading into the upcoming season, not just because I think he provides some value on the field but because of the insurance aspect I mentioned.  

Do you think Nunez has any trade value at a 3m salary?

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7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think Nunez has any trade value at a 3m salary?

I don’t think the salary matters to be honest.  By that I mean, most teams will have 3 million to pay for his bat...if they need it.  I also don’t know that you can assume he gets 3M (or more).

The question is, who needs a DH?  If the NL has the DH next year, it will be helpful but I don’t see that happening.  
 

The need for his skill set is the bigger hindrance in trading him vs the salary imo.

If we cut him, I could see Tampa or Oakland scooping him right up (if they have a need at that position)

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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think the salary matters to be honest.  By that I mean, most teams will have 3 million to pay for his bat...if they need it.  I also don’t know that you can assume he gets 3M (or more).

The question is, who needs a DH?  If the NL has the DH next year, it will be helpful but I don’t see that happening.  
 

The need for his skill set is the bigger hindrance in trading him vs the salary imo.

If we cut him, I could see Tampa or Oakland scooping him right up (if they have a need at that position)

I think its interesting to fill out a 26 man roster with Davis on it and see how Nunez effects the at bats of other  young players.   Does it hold back Diaz from being called up in May because they are not at bats for him?  Nunez has no options so if he is on the team he has to be on the 26 man roster.

I did it and had a problem finding at bats for Nunez.  I would be interested if you see the same situation.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Do you think Nunez has any trade value at a 3m salary?

I do not expect Nunez would earn a $3 mm salary as a first time Arb eligible Super 2.    Alberto earned $1.65 mm this year in his first Arb year, and he was more valuable last year than Nunez was this year and had 3.085 years of service.    I look for Nunez to be in the $1.5 - 2 mm range.    

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think its interesting to fill out a 26 man roster with Davis on it and see how Nunez effects the at bats of other  young players.   Does it hold back Diaz from being called up in May because they are not at bats for him?  Nunez has no options so if he is on the team he has to be on the 26 man roster.

I did it and had a problem finding at bats for Nunez.  I would be interested if you see the same situation.

Ideally, I would start the year with Mountcastle, Hays and Santander in the OF, Mancini at first and Nunez/Stewart at DH.  Davis would be gone.

When I am defining ideal there, I’m doing it with a combo of my personal ideal world and what I expect the Os to do.  By that I mean, I feel 2 of Davis, Nunez and Santander should be gone but I don’t think that happens, so I’m compromising some.

I would want/expect Diaz to be up by mid May or so and he gets to play everyday, as he would be the best defensive COer we have.

At that point, someone has to move (thus why I want 2 of the aforementioned players gone).  However, that may take care of itself on its own because of performance issues, health, etc..

That’s a long winded way to say I don’t think getting them the at bats is a problem until Diaz is up.  At that point, you have a logjam.

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If the NL has the DH next year, it will be helpful but I don’t see that happening.  
 

Renato is kind of a poster child for clubs kind of needing to know this before tendering decisions.  At say $1.75MM, demand for a guy like him maybe depends more on the 15 extra jobs than if his OPS+ is 115, 120 or 125.

If as in my ideal world we get Adley, Yusniel, Baumann on April 15th and Trey is well (imagine he gets Bowie/Norfolk for a week or two but no more than that if he holds up), he becomes Benny Ayala fast and that guy is Reliever #7 now.

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32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He got 6.5M coming off of a sub 700 OPS season.

Both player and club perhaps have significant warts to the other 29 clubs/575 players, so they're a good match for each other.

We do well enough in the first half next year, maybe we trade Diaz and Kremer in reverse for Correa, Altuve and Greinke.  It goes without saying the $30M/year guys have to be paid down to about $20M/year for the acquirer.

Bregman will take more than Diaz/Kremer.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I do not expect Nunez would earn a $3 mm salary as a first time Arb eligible Super 2.    Alberto earned $1.65 mm this year in his first Arb year, and he was more valuable last year than Nunez was this year and had 3.085 years of service.    I look for Nunez to be in the $1.5 - 2 mm range.    

Alberto isn't comparable to Nunez.   Nunez is a run producer that hits homers.  Alberto is a run scorer that does not hit a  lot of homers.   Mancini is more comparable to Nunez.   He is not as good which will be reflected in his salary.   Mancini got 4.75m in his year of arbitration.   Mancini at the time was a poorly rate defense COF/DH/1B.   He had any 899 OPS hitting 35 HR, 97 RBI.  Nunez for the last two season has been on a 30+ HR, 90ish  RBI pace with a 785ish OPS as a DH/1B   I think because has been a full time player and run producer to is in line for a 3M arbitration award.  JMO

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7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s also a relatively irrational thought that they won’t need him.

In many ways, I’m 100% on board with what you are saying.  However, your outlook is talking about many things going right.

Lets not forget that you actually need Mancini to come back and have his skills back.  You need Santander, Hays, Stewart and (eventually) Diaz to both play well and stay healthy, something none of these guys have consistently shown they can do.

Nunez provides insurance for those issues.

Now, The flip side To that is, who cares?  If those guys are hurt or aren’t performing, Nunez doesn’t keep us afloat or carry this team when they are out. He’s just another body, even if he is offensively one of the better players on the team.

 I’m just not on board with losing him for free.  I think it’s a relatively poor move heading into the upcoming season, not just because I think he provides some value on the field but because of the insurance aspect I mentioned.  

Everything you say is valid, but the point is that we have enough guys who are overall superior to Nunez that there’s no harm in losing him. His spot will be taken by someone more versatile. Even if they don’t have his 30 home run power, they’ll have better defense at more positions( even one position would be “more”)run better, and offer more flexibility with the roster.

Im sure @Frobby can find out immediately how many players were worth .3 fWAR this season, yet hit as well as Nunez did. My guess is “several.” If he’s really unique, Nunez might have more trade value than I’m expecting. Either way, he’s expendable, and I expect him to be expended. Trumbo was traded to the Os for nothing, remember.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Alberto isn't comparable to Nunez.   Nunez is a run producer that hits homers.  Alberto is a run scorer that does not hit a  lot of homers.   Mancini is more comparable to Nunez.   He is not as good which will be reflected in his salary.   Mancini got 4.75m in his year of arbitration.   Mancini at the time was a poorly rate defense COF/DH/1B.   He had any 899 OPS hitting 35 HR, 97 RBI.  Nunez for the last two season has been on a 30+ HR, 90ish  RBI pace with a 785ish OPS as a DH/1B   I think because has been a full time player and run producer to is in line for a 3M arbitration award.  JMO

I’ve been hunting around for a better comp for Nunez, a 1B/DH type who’s offensively similar and has been healthy in the two years prior to arbitration.   I haven’t come up with a really decent comp, but based on some weak data points I now think my $1.5 - 2 mm range was low.   I don’t think Nunez is a more valuable player than Alberto, but the 1B/DH types seem to get paid better.    

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6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

If we cut him, I could see Tampa or Oakland scooping him right up (if they have a need at that position)

Of course. Anyone with a need would scoop him up, and no one without a need would do so.

But your comment reflects the weakness in your argument. “If we cut him” if we cut him, Texas( with a team, a TEAM batting average of .216) and Pittsburg will “knives out and blood flows” to get him off waivers. But they won’t TRADE for him, unless it’s a courtesy no-name guy with no future.

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2 hours ago, Philip said:

Everything you say is valid, but the point is that we have enough guys who are overall superior to Nunez that there’s no harm in losing him. His spot will be taken by someone more versatile. Even if they don’t have his 30 home run power, they’ll have better defense at more positions( even one position would be “more”)run better, and offer more flexibility with the roster.

Im sure @Frobby can find out immediately how many players were worth .3 fWAR this season, yet hit as well as Nunez did. My guess is “several.” If he’s really unique, Nunez might have more trade value than I’m expecting. Either way, he’s expendable, and I expect him to be expended. Trumbo was traded to the Os for nothing, remember.

No, we have several guys we HOPE are superior to Nunez.

Nunez is an established 800+ OPS 30+ homer type guy.  None of these other guys really are outside of Mancini, who we have no idea what to expect.

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2 hours ago, Philip said:

Of course. Anyone with a need would scoop him up, and no one without a need would do so.

But your comment reflects the weakness in your argument. “If we cut him” if we cut him, Texas( with a team, a TEAM batting average of .216) and Pittsburg will “knives out and blood flows” to get him off waivers. But they won’t TRADE for him, unless it’s a courtesy no-name guy with no future.

There’s no weakness in any argument there.

If we cut him, team X will pick him up is accurate.  If team X wants him but they know the Os will cut him, why trade for him?  Btw, I’m aware that if someone really wants him, they could try to trade for him to insure that he goes there but again, the market for him will be relatively limited either way.

But if the Os sign him or make their intentions know that they won’t cut him, a trade partner is more likely to emerge, if one exists.

I don’t expect to get a ton for him though.

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