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Frobby

Hanser Alberto’s season

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If Alberto is non tendered or traded then Valaika is the heir apparent for the O's 2nd base job.   He had a 791 OPS mainly because he got regular at ba for the first time in his MLB career.  He is a better defensive 2nd baseman than Alberto. His errors this year were at SS not 2B.

Herrera and Urias would be the competition for 2nd base in ST.   Herrera got rave reviews at Bowie for being a tough out and Urias has a history of being good defensively at 2nd.  Much better precentage than at SS. 

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3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Well, that is the answer to your question "why bring him back?" He may be the best internal option for a placeholder until Gunnar/Vavra are ready. As long as he doesn't cost too much I don't see the harm. 

Exactly, I remember that Buck was fond of saying, “if not him, who?” Which, in addition to being bad grammar, is a deflection of the responsibility, that he abrogated, to bring in competent players.

But in this case, it’s valid. Alberto is here because we don’t have anybody better, and don’t say that Valaika is better. Unless you’re into Vikings, he has no more place here than Alberto does, and they’re both gone as soon as we can find somebody better, but we don’t have anybody better yet.

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5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Exactly, I remember that Buck was fond of saying, “if not him, who?” Which, in addition to being bad grammar, is a deflection of the responsibility, that he abrogated, to bring in competent players.

But in this case, it’s valid. Alberto is here because we don’t have anybody better, and don’t say that Valaika is better. Unless you’re into Vikings, he has no more place here than Alberto does, and they’re both gone as soon as we can find somebody better, but we don’t have anybody better yet.

You could say that about most players in MLB.  

Valaika offense and defense are better than Alberto at 2B. The numbers bears that out.  And Valaika projects to be about 1.5m cheaper in 2021.

 

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

You could say that about most players in MLB.  

Valaika offense and defense are better than Alberto at 2B. The numbers bears that out.  And Valaika projects to be about 1.5m cheaper in 2021.

 

Oh I don’t particularly care which of those two guys os our stopgap for next season.

Hmmm actually maybe I do. Alberto hits lefties well.  Valaika is just kind of meh overall. That gives reason for discussion.

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

If Alberto is non tendered or traded then Valaika is the heir apparent for the O's 2nd base job.   He had a 791 OPS mainly because he got regular at ba for the first time in his MLB career.  He is a better defensive 2nd baseman than Alberto. His errors this year were at SS not 2B.

I don’t think we saw enough of Valaika defensively at 2B (73 innings total) to draw any conclusions about whether he’s better than Alberto.    I tend to doubt he is, but I don’t really have a strong view about it.    

I thought Valaika did a nice job with the bat, and in particular, showed more power than I would have expected.   I’m not sold that he’s a .791 hitter, but he showed enough to hold his 40-man spot this winter.  
 

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If we couldn’t keep Villar at $8.2 million, who could “play” SS, then I don’t see how we can keep Alberto at $3 million. 
 

It would be funny if we non tendered/traded Alberto, then gave Villar $3-4 million on a 1 year deal. 

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9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we saw enough of Valaika defensively at 2B (73 innings total) to draw any conclusions about whether he’s better than Alberto.    I tend to doubt he is, but I don’t really have a strong view about it.    

I thought Valaika did a nice job with the bat, and in particular, showed more power than I would have expected.   I’m not sold that he’s a .791 hitter, but he showed enough to hold his 40-man spot this winter.  
 

According to Baseball Reference   Valaika has played  329.2 innings at 2B is the majors and has committed one error for a .995 fielding percentage and he has a 4.94 range factor.  

Alberto has 1273 innings at 2B in the majors with a 987 fielding percentage and 4.40 range factor.

Both of those are pretty good  but Valaika is better in fewer innings at 2B.

I think you will find that the advance fielding stats will be similar in the outcome that Valaika numbers will be better than Alberto's at 2B.

Valaika had a better OPS in 2020 than Alberto had in either 2019 or 2020.

And Valaika salary will be cheaper.   I think that is enough reason for Elias to either non tender or trade Alberto rather than pay him 3M in 2021.

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14 hours ago, wildcard said:

You could say that about most players in MLB.  

Valaika offense and defense are better than Alberto at 2B. The numbers bears that out.  And Valaika projects to be about 1.5m cheaper in 2021.

 

What numbers would those be?

Valaika had 583 MLB PAs and a .691 OPS, but a 72 OPS+ because much of that was in Colorado.  He's a -7 fielder overall.  All that adds up to about a win below replacement.  He's 28.

Alberto has 973 MLB PAs and a .678 OPS, good for an 81 OPS+.  He's a +7 fielder overall, and totals 2.9 WAR.  He turns 28 in a few weeks.

Seems pretty clear to me that neither are stars, or even regulars on a good team, but Alberto has a very good case for being the better player.  The only case I see for Valaika is if you put almost all your weight on the last 200-300 ABs... ahh... now I get it.

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21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What numbers would those be?

Valaika had 583 MLB PAs and a .691 OPS, but a 72 OPS+ because much of that was in Colorado.  He's a -7 fielder overall.  All that adds up to about a win below replacement.  He's 28.

Alberto has 973 MLB PAs and a .678 OPS, good for an 81 OPS+.  He's a +7 fielder overall, and totals 2.9 WAR.  He turns 28 in a few weeks.

Seems pretty clear to me that neither are stars, or even regulars on a good team, but Alberto has a very good case for being the better player.  The only case I see for Valaika is if you put almost all your weight on the last 200-300 ABs... ahh... now I get it.

When Valaika has gotten regular playing time in the majors he has done pretty well.

In 2017 he got 195 PAs and had an 817 OPS.  Most the those PAs were when Story was injured so Valaika was playing fairly regularly during that period.

In 2020 he played pretty regularly, got 150 PAs and  had a 791 OPS.    In the other years he did not get regular playing time and that is reflected in his offense numbers.

As a utility player he has played many positions thus the lower overall fielding rate.  But if you look at how he has preformed at 2B the fielding rate is higher than Alberto at 2B.

There is reason to be believe that Valaika given regular playing time will perform well.  Its appears he will perform better than Alberto has in the last two years.

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31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When Valaika has gotten regular playing time in the majors he has done pretty well.

In 2017 he got 195 PAs and had an 817 OPS.  Most the those PAs were when Story was injured so Valaika was playing fairly regularly during that period.

In 2020 he played pretty regularly, got 150 PAs and  had a 791 OPS.    In the other years he did not get regular playing time and that is reflected in his offense numbers.

As a utility player he has played many positions thus the lower overall fielding rate.  But if you look at how he has preformed at 2B the fielding rate is higher than Alberto at 2B.

There is reason to be believe that Valaika given regular playing time will perform well.  Its appears he will perform better than Alberto has in the last two years.

I think Valaika can perform decent with the bat, not so sure about the defense.  There's not much you can do to prove to me that moving 100 feet to the other side of the infield will automatically transform him into a better fielder.  It's just as easy to boot a ground ball at 2nd base as it is at SS.  

Again, wildcard, small sample size at 2B.

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8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think Valaika can perform decent with the bat, not so sure about the defense.  There's not much you can do to prove to me that moving 100 feet to the other side of the infield will automatically transform him into a better fielder.  It's just as easy to boot a ground ball at 2nd base as it is at SS.  

Again, wildcard, small sample size at 2B.

1) The throws are shorter from 2B compared to SS and he does not have to rush as much.  That appears to lead to fewer errors on his part.  He probably does not have a major league SS arm.

2) Elias is going to have to make a decision on whether to pay Alberto about 3M in his 2nd arbitration year.  That decision will come in the next few months.  His best option to replace Alberto is Valaika.   SSS is all he has to make that decision on.   But that is not new to him.  He has made decision on Alberto, Ruiz, Sisco, Severino, and many pitchers based on SSS over the last two years.  It called looking at the player and giving him a opportunity.    He has other back up players in the organization including Herrera, Martin, Urias, and Bannon.     

I am expressing an opinion based on what I think Elias will do given the SSS data he has.   Lets see what he does.  But make no mistake about it, Elias has and will continue to make decisions based on SSS results.

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

1) The throws are shorter from 2B compared to SS and he does not have to rush as much.  That appears to lead to fewer errors on his part.  He probably does not have a major league SS arm.

2) Elias is going to have to make a decision on whether to pay Alberto about 3M in his 2nd arbitration year.  That decision will come in the next few months.  His best option to replace Alberto is Valaika.   SSS is all he has to make that decision on.   But that is not new to him.  He has made decision on Alberto, Ruiz, Sisco, Severino, and many pitchers based on SSS over the last two years.  It called looking at the player and giving him a opportunity.    He has other back up players in the organization including Herrera, Martin, Urias, and Bannon.     

I am expressing an opinion based on what I think Elias will do given the SSS data he has.   Lets see what he does.  But make no mistake about it, Elias has and will continue to make decisions based on SSS results.

We'd have to break down whether his errors came on ground balls or throws.  Quite frankly, I can't remember them all and I don't know how to look that information up.

3 million on Alberto is ok.  I would agree that Valaika could be a leading candidate to replace him if he decides to make a change.  

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9 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think with 2B and 3B depth as big a question mark as it is, you basically have to keep him unless you find a trade for him. 

It depends on if being competitive is a goal for next season.  If the plan is to secure another high draft pick then it doesn't matter.

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