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State of the System: Outfield - Grade A

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Wow, I was thinking more like C. We've got good depth but I don't really see an elite guy anywhere in the system. No way you can give the system an A when the MLB club is at best C. 

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8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Wow, I was thinking more like C. We've got good depth but I don't really see an elite guy anywhere in the system. No way you can give the system an A when the MLB club is at best C. 

I'm also thinking that some of these "grades" are quite generous.

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I think you could say our corner outfield is B+/A-. That's Kjerstad, Mountcastle, Diaz, Santander, etc. The ceiling there is very nice.

Our CF is C-. Sure, if Hays becomes a 150 game/year guy, it's better, but will he? I have 0 confidence in McKenna, though it's not crazy to think he can be a 4th outfielder (really 5th, defense only).

Composite, probably a B/B-.

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On 10/4/2020 at 10:36 AM, Frobby said:

I think overall you are proving to be a very easy grader.  

Starting pitching: A

Relief pitching: B

Corner IF: B+
 

Middle IF: C+
 

OF: A

CA: A-

That’s a B+ organization overall in terms of talent.   I don’t see how we’re anything near that yet.    

I appreciate the reviews and the work they took, but this is just a little too rosey overall. 
 

SP: (C-) We have two bonafide prospects in Hall and Rodriguez. They’re not even projected as #1 or #2 starters. Kremer and Akin has their moments but are likely back end guys. Means really struggled, and also has durability issues. We have a lot of “depth”. That’s good. But that depth is right now in the form of 10-20 “Jason Berken/Tyler Wilson/Brad Bergeson “types” that we hope develop into back end rotation types/relievers. 
 

Relief Pitching: (C) We have some decent arms at the MLB level to build around.  Harvey, Scott, Tate, Fry, Armstrong.  Carroll and Kline have been disappointments.  Pop is an unknown.  Some of the Starting Pitching “depth” will help fill out the Relief talent pool.

Catcher: (A) We have AR and Severino/Sisco. That’s an A in my book. 
 

Outfield: (B+) We have really nice corner pieces at the MLB level right now in Mountcastle and Santander. Diaz and Kjerstad are the next wave. What really holds the grade back is injuries, and question marks at CF. Mullins and Hayes aren’t sure things. Mckenna has struggled in the minors. The rest are more suspects than prospects at this point. 

Middle Infield (D) We’re still really thin at SS, and our prospects are a long ways away.  Remember that Mountcastle was once a “SS”.  A lot can change from A ball to MLB.  Vavra really helps at 2B.  We can name a lot of players, but that doesn’t make them realistic pieces at the MLB level(Sorry Rylan Bannon).  
 

Corner Infield (D+)  Lots of ???? here.  Will Mancini come back, if so he’s likely traded at best anyways.  Is Nevin a 1B or 3B?  Is Westburg the long term answer at 3B?  Ruiz/Alberto could likely team platoon up to give us quality MLB play for the next two seasons, but are we willing to pay for that?

Overall, I think we’re still a C or C- at best.  That might be slightly pessimistic because we just missed an entire MILB season to evaluate, but it is what it is at this point.  We’re going to have another high draft pick, and big bonus pool.  Elias seems like he’ll trade some guys that are going into Arb.  We really need to get out of the bottom 5(or bottom 2) in international signings.  Our trajectory looks like we’ll be in the B to B- range come this time next year in terms of overall system talent.  
 

We’re heading into year 3 of a 5 year plan, and we lost a whole MILB season.  We might be looking at a 6 year plan here.  At this point we’re locked into Elias for that, for better or worse.

 

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On 10/4/2020 at 11:24 AM, ScGO's said:

What he said.  Looking at where we were, and now, where we are going, these grades reflect the plan, talent, depth, and philosophy.  The overall talent at the MLB level is not an A when compared to all 30 teams, but the grades reflect the O's efforts, plan, and talent throughout the entire system judged only against themselves and what the front office has be able to do within their capabilities, limitations and resources.

By that measure no team in the majors would rate below a C or a C+, and at least 25 teams would be at a B or higher.

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In terms of depth, the OF is the deepest area in the organization, but I"m not convinced we have a true star level player in the bunch. I like what I saw from Mountcastle, but want to see if over a full 162-game season before I buy in too heavily. And, while Santander was certainly a great Rule-5 find with some pop, he had a .sub-.300 OBP last year and was better, but still not great at .315 in 2020. Hays has questions. Mullins' offense is a question. There is a lot of depth, but I need some true star power before I give it an "A".

This is a B+ from me.

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There is another post talking about making Santander expendable.  I agree, and this is a big reason I went A.  We are pretty fortunate to have essentially 6 MLB ready OF'ers in Santander, Hayes, Mountcastle, Mullins, Stewart, and Diaz.  All 6 are also young and talanted enough to have more "ceiling."  Perhaps they all don't make it, but so far they have all shown enough to be excited about their return in 2021.  Santander could be an All Star, Hayes shows  the potential to hit .300 with 20+ dingers, Mullins could steal 25+ bases and OPS over .700 with solid D, Stewart has shown excellent OBP potential and pop but seems to be playing "not to fail" at times and if he could get over that, he could be an .800 OPS contributor, and Diaz is the next big prospect up.  All 6 are still unproven and could fizzle out before we return to the playoffs, but I like our odds. 

I think the milb depth is quality too with the last couple drafts having some focus on creating OF depth.  Don't sleep on McKenna either. He was always young for Bowie and he has struggled with AA, but he did quietly keep flashing some OBP skills during that time period.  If he could find that .377 stroke he had at Frederick a few years back and couple that with the same OBP rates, he could be a solid top of the line up guy with the potential to steal 20+ bags (not that I expect him to hit .377).  He did kill it in the AZ Fall League too.  Any reports on him out of the Bowie Camp?

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