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Frobby

Fangraphs’ Longenhagen looks at Akin, Kremer, Mountcastle, Harvey and Urías

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2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Wait... Akin has a "plus changeup"?

Absolutely.  There were times when he could spot it down and away with deception and movement.   He was dominant at times with it.  Consistently is what divides average and greatness.  I would guess the changeup only became a real weapon for him over the last two years so perhaps consistency with it is not a pipe dream. 

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30 minutes ago, weams said:

Akin is gonna be a good pitcher. If the Orioles give up on him, you will read about him for years afterwards.

Kind of reminds me of Bedard a bit with his curve.

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41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Absolutely.  There were times when he could spot it down and away with deception and movement.   He was dominant at times with it.  Consistently is what divides average and greatness.  I would guess the changeup only became a real weapon for him over the last two years so perhaps consistency with it is not a pipe dream. 

I suppose I think of command as a requirement for "plus" status. 

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9 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I suppose I think of command as a requirement for "plus" status. 

Tanner Scott has a plus fastball whether he throws it for strikes or not.  Command is a separate category to me.  He does command it at times.  He can repeat location with it but he loses the feels at certain points in a game.  

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Left handers, especially can be efficiently wild, that is, not let the LHB own the batters box.   Fewer HR in that case,  over the short Right Field fences in the AL.   I remember Koufax in his early years being very good at that.   Then he improved his control some and got batters out with super stuff.   Akin needs to improve on that phase of his game.  Do not give the batters box to those  strong, hulking LHB.  

 

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I agree in part.  Fastball and breaking pitch slightly in Kremer's favor.  However, Akin at times showed a plus changeup.  I don't think Kremer's is even in the same zip code but I didn't see much of either so I'm all ears.

I really like the cutter I saw from Kremer.    I think that’s his third pitch.   Didn’t really see him throw a change much , those I confess I haven’t looked at any breakdowns of how often he threw his various pitches.  

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2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Kind of reminds me of Bedard a bit with his curve.

And my painting skills remind me of Rembrandt.   

Seriously, Bedard’s curve was one of the very best major league pitches I’ve seen in the 21st century.   Top top shelf.    Akin’s looks decent enough but it’s not in that ballpark IMO.
 

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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really like the cutter I saw from Kremer.    I think that’s his third pitch.   Didn’t really see him throw a change much , those I confess I haven’t looked at any breakdowns of how often he threw his various pitches.  

OK, now I’ve looked.

Kremer: 51.2% FB, 19.1% CT, 27.2% CU, 2.6% CH.

Akin 62.0% FB, 10.0% SL, 10.6% CU, 17.4% CH.

I’m actually not sure if Akin has a distinct slider and curve, or whether he really just throws a slurve that gets put in one of the two buckets based on how much it happens to break on each occasion or how fast the pitch is thrown.

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7 hours ago, Philip said:

I just read the FanGraphs article. Boy is he hard on us. Only four guys with >|=50 FV. Harsh.

I would not say he’s harsh on the Orioles.    He’s just a strict grader generally.    Among the 30 teams, he only ranks 112 players at 50 or higher — 3.7 per team.   Of those, only 40 rank 55 or higher — 1.3 per team.   So for the O’s to have four guys at 50 or higher with two of those at 55 or higher puts them at above average in both categories.

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On 10/11/2020 at 7:31 AM, Frobby said:

I like Kremer a bit more than Akin.   Akin’s stuff is not quite as good, but he’s more deceptive.   But deception wears down as hitters become more looks.    Give me Kremer for the long run.   I like both, though.  

I still think Akin is going to end up in the pen. Not because he doesn't show three major league average pitches, but it takes him a lot of pitches to get batters out and he would probably always be a 5 inning starter with inconsistent outings. 

I think he can be just absolutely nasty out of the pen, but the question will be can he work on back to back days and be effective? 

Saying that, I expect the Orioles to give him a whole season next year in the rotation to prove it. I think we'll see #5 results for a few years and then someone (depending on whether he's traded or not at some point) will convert him when better starter options show up.

The good news is he's a major league pitcher in some role and will be for a long time as long as he stays healthy, which is something he's always been able to do.

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On 10/11/2020 at 8:59 AM, Jagwar said:

Wait... Akin has a "plus changeup"?

I would say he can flash a plus changeup, but it's more average. Savant has him at -3% vs avg on drop but 14% vs avg on fade (horizontal). The pitch plays well against his high Bauer Unit fastball (26.0) so he had a high WHIF rate (36% the highest of all his pitches). The problem though is he tends too miss to much high or in the middle of the plate and it gets hit hard when he does. When he finishes low and away with the pitch it can be a swing and miss pitch. 

Part of Akins issues has always been consistent command of his pitches and making too many mistakes in the middle of the plate. He had a 50% hard hit rate (bottom 2% of league) because of those misses in the middle of the plate. While a small sample size at the major league level, it backs up what I've been saying about Akin for years from watching him in the minors.  

The stuff is there. The consistent command has never been there often enough and it's why you will see outstanding starts followed by disasters. 

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21 hours ago, Frobby said:

OK, now I’ve looked.

Kremer: 51.2% FB, 19.1% CT, 27.2% CU, 2.6% CH.

Akin 62.0% FB, 10.0% SL, 10.6% CU, 17.4% CH.

I’m actually not sure if Akin has a distinct slider and curve, or whether he really just throws a slurve that gets put in one of the two buckets based on how much it happens to break on each occasion or how fast the pitch is thrown.

Where are you getting those from? Savant has all of his breaking balls as sliders. Saying that, it is a bit of a hybrid pitch. It's a little slow for a true slider and has more horizontal break as a lot of curveballs. From a scouting standpoint, I'd call it a slurve but it has more of a slider shape than a true 12-6 curveball.

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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Where are you getting those from? Savant has all of his breaking balls as sliders. Saying that, it is a bit of a hybrid pitch. It's a little slow for a true slider and has more horizontal break as a lot of curveballs. From a scouting standpoint, I'd call it a slurve but it has more of a slider shape than a true 12-6 curveball.

I’m getting them from Fangraphs.  They actually have two different flavors of pitch breakdown, “pitch type” and Pitch Info pitch type.”   But they both show the same breakdown.   Here’s Akin’s page: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keegan-akin/19362/stats#pitch-type

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38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m getting them from Fangraphs.  They actually have two different flavors of pitch breakdown, “pitch type” and Pitch Info pitch type.”   But they both show the same breakdown.   Here’s Akin’s page: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keegan-akin/19362/stats#pitch-type

I looked up Brooks Baseball and they have the same as Fangraphs. Brooks baseball has a significant Vmovement difference as well a a 5 MPH difference in speed which would tell me they are two different pitches. It does make me question the pitch data available in baseball savant now a bit. 



Baseball Savant needs to get its act together...

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