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Tony-OH

#3 2020 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

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If you don't like this guy at this point, I don't know what to say. I could see how some will say he won't hit this well when the league adjusts and thus his profile would be as an average starter. I like the power though, so think he's more. Plus, they haven't adjusted yet and I think he has some range in the outfield.

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Huh, I didn't realize the peripherals were that good. I thought, if anything, he was overperforming them a little. I also thought Kjerstad's ceiling was a little higher than Mountcastle's, but perhaps they're more comparable than I thought.

I just didn't think Hall could possibly drop on the list as a result of Bowie unless he went way, way backwards

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MC seems to hit ok, but his defense remains awful, even at 1B. I hope he improves, but if not, he needs to be in a position where he can best help the team, and that’s DH.

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1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Huh, I didn't realize the peripherals were that good. I thought, if anything, he was overperforming them a little. I also thought Kjerstad's ceiling was a little higher than Mountcastle's, but perhaps they're more comparable than I thought.

I just didn't think Hall could possibly drop on the list as a result of Bowie unless he went way, way backwards

Kjerstad's ceiling might be higher because we have less to go on with him. If his improvements this spring were indications that he's made major adjustments and was becoming an impact bat, then he could have a higher ceiling and end up better than Mountcastle. 

But, at this point, we can see how well Mountcastle performed at the MLB level and although he's got a hole low and away that he'll need to make adjustments with, the fact that he just destroyed most mistakes and was already being pitched around tells you a lot about his ability to be an impact bat.

The only thing that holds him back is that he will bring little to no defensive value. honestly though, I could have built a case to put Kjerstad #3 so no one is really "wrong" here.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If you don't like this guy at this point, I don't know what to say. I could see how some will say he won't hit this well when the league adjusts and thus his profile would be as an average starter. I like the power though, so think he's more. Plus, they haven't adjusted yet and I think he has some range in the outfield.

I think he has untapped range. It seems to be tentative when running after balls but it's hard to say because he really wasn't challenged very much. i do like that the early results saw him in as 0 OAA outfielder which means he didn't hurt the team when he was out there.

 

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I think any defensive deficiencies in LF or at 1B are grossly overstated by some (or one, Philip 😉).  Especially considering his lack of experience. I think he could grow into either position just fine.  At worst, as Tony said, he won’t hurt us at either and his bat can be a big plus.

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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Rank Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade
         
3 Ryan Mountcastle 50 60 65
         

 

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/13/2-2020-prospect-ryan-mountcastle/

This was the best, most detailed  write-up so far.   It helps to have some actual data to analyze!

I had Kjerstad ahead of Mountcastle but it’s definitely arguable either way.    Really nice to see Mountcastle get off to a good start in the majors, something we don’t always see.   
 

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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This was the best, most detailed  write-up so far.   It helps to have some actual data to analyze!

I had Kjerstad ahead of Mountcastle but it’s definitely arguable either way.    Really nice to see Mountcastle get off to a good start in the majors, something we don’t always see.   
 

Having the major league data from baseball savant helped to be able to convey the scouting though. I wish we had that data on minor leaguers. 

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2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I think any defensive deficiencies in LF or at 1B are grossly overstated by some (or one, Philip 😉).  Especially considering his lack of experience. I think he could grow into either position just fine.  At worst, as Tony said, he won’t hurt us at either and his bat can be a big plus.

By one

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I don't think the way Mountcastle plays the outfield will matter much.   The O's are about to have 4 young outfielders that field better than he does.  Santander, Hays, Mullins and Diaz.  And even if Mullins only plays vs right-handed pitching that is enough depth to push Mountcastle to 1B/DH.  IMO

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5 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I think any defensive deficiencies in LF or at 1B are grossly overstated by some (or one, Philip 😉).  Especially considering his lack of experience. I think he could grow into either position just fine.  At worst, as Tony said, he won’t hurt us at either and his bat can be a big plus.

Statcast: 0 OAA in LF, -1 at 1B

Rtot: -1 in LF, +1 at 1B

Rdrs: -1 in LF, -3 at 1B

UZR: +0.2 in LF, -0.1 at 1B

All in very small sample sizes, so hard to make much of it.    I agree that there’s a reasonable chance Mountcastle will improve with experience, too.    But I don’t necessarily assume he will.  I expected Mancini to get better in the OF after learning on the fly in 2017, but he didn’t really get any better out there in 2018-19.    

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think the way Mountcastle plays the outfield will matter much.   The O's are about to have 4 young outfielders that field better than he does.  Santander, Hays, Mullins and Diaz.  And even if Mullins only plays vs right-handed pitching that is enough depth to push Mountcastle to 1B/DH.  IMO

Plus Mancini will be gone soon enough and we don't have a big 1B in the pipeline.

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

 I agree that there’s a reasonable chance Mountcastle will improve with experience, too.    But I don’t necessarily assume he will.  I expected Mancini to get better in the OF after learning on the fly in 2017, but he didn’t really get any better out there in 2018-19.    

Mancini was a full time first baseman in college and the minors.  Mountcastle was a shortstop.  Mountcastle is more athletic and faster than Mancini has ever been.  I think he has a much better chance to be an adequate outfielder.

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21 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Mancini was a full time first baseman in college and the minors.  Mountcastle was a shortstop.  Mountcastle is more athletic and faster than Mancini has ever been.  I think he has a much better chance to be an adequate outfielder.

Why do you think Mountcastle will play in the OF when he is likely to be only adequate.   Hays, Mullins, Diaz and Santander all project to be better defensive OFers.

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