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Tony-OH

#4 2020 Prospect: Heston Kjerstad - RF

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This is a conservative write-up from Tony, IMO. The power/obp combo is a higher ceiling than Mountcastle. I agree with the ranking. Mountcastle is here. Kjestad is a long way away. I could even see this guy as far as #6. Still, the ceiling in Camden Yards is awesome. 

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A long way away?

Didn't one of the talking heads say his bat was ml ready now?

 

Elias factor?

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4 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Elias factor?

I would hope that this maneuvering is to enable the team to get as much talent together for as long as possible which at some point will mean aggressive promotions.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

This is a conservative write-up from Tony, IMO. The power/obp combo is a higher ceiling than Mountcastle. I agree with the ranking. Mountcastle is here. Kjestad is a long way away. I could even see this guy as far as #6. Still, the ceiling in Camden Yards is awesome. 

Potentially for sure, but we don't have a ton to go off of because his plate discipline wasn't that great until his shortened junior campaign. Mountcastle is only two years older than Kjerstad and I know we can't dock anyone for missed time this year, but at 21, Mountcastle slashed .297/.341/.464/.806 in Bowie (AA) already. 

But, like I've said elsewhere, I could have easily built a case for him at #3 over Mountcastle and feel they both have about the same ceiling, just one is already here.

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It is a nice move for RM to be placed ahead of a consensus top hitter and legitimate top 10 pick in a draft.  One has to be really pleased with RM's MLB debut and the development RM has shown as a hitter.  Tony used some stats to support RM at 3.  BA had RM a 50 overall in the 2020 Prospect Handbook with a 60 hit tool and 55 power.  Those are strong numbers for Kjerstad to match or exceed and I believe Kjerstad should currently project to do just that.  I like Kjerstad's defensive profile better in RF than RM's at LF and 1B.  The most current ratings on MLB.com have Kjerstad as our 3 with a 55 overall rating and Mountcastle at 5 overall with a 50 rating.  I would prefer Kjerstad at 3, but understand and accept Tony's well-supported opinion.  I hope RM continues to improve as a hitter with continued development in his power and BB/K rates.  

RM, Kjerstad and Adley can easily project to be the offensive backbone of our next competitive (playoff) team.  

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If Kjerstad's left-handed bat is equivalent to Mountcastle's right-handed bat, I will be thrilled.  Ideally, Diaz will become a solid right fielder with Kjerstad in left (or vice versa), Hays in centrer, Mountcastle at 1B, and Rutshman catching.  That has the makings of a pretty potent lineup.

On a side note, I find the work that Vavra is doing in center field very interesting.

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

On a side note, I find the work that Vavra is doing in center field very interesting.

For an organization that loudly laments its lack of middle infield prospects, I'm not sure why they'd take a guy with a good chance to be an MLB 2B and try to make him a center fielder. Hopefully they're trying to see if he can be a super utility player, or something

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1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

For an organization that loudly laments its lack of middle infield prospects, I'm not sure why they'd take a guy with a good chance to be an MLB 2B and try to make him a center fielder. Hopefully they're trying to see if he can be a super utility player, or something

As always I trust and hope they know what they are doing.  We do have Hall, Westburg, Servideo, and Henderson potentially in the middle.  How many true CF prospects?  McKenna, Watson, ??.   Mckenna has stagnated in AA.  Watson is interesting but not a top prospect.  A move of Vavra to CF makes me envision either McKenna moving to LF and repeating Bowie once again or being pushed to AAA finally.  It also puts a Gunnar Henderson/Adam Hall middle INF at Bowie next year into my imagination. 

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2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

For an organization that loudly laments its lack of middle infield prospects, I'm not sure why they'd take a guy with a good chance to be an MLB 2B and try to make him a center fielder. Hopefully they're trying to see if he can be a super utility player, or something

The Rays were using the fourth outfielder regularly against certain Yankees.  I guess if the projected IF of the peak Rutschman teams is the better of Mayo/Gunnar, some very rich SS, Vavra outplaying all the other 2B contenders and a Mountcastle whose offense you don't want to goof around with, he's the OF4.

I am guessing we aren't yet at the end of the trend of hitters intention-ing ground balls out of existence.

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3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

For an organization that loudly laments its lack of middle infield prospects, I'm not sure why they'd take a guy with a good chance to be an MLB 2B and try to make him a center fielder. Hopefully they're trying to see if he can be a super utility player, or something

You can only play so many players in these positions.

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10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You can only play so many players in these positions.

Do we have a better second base prospect in the system?

I assume Vavra is probably somewhere 9-13-ish in Tony's list. Is anyone ranked higher a 2B?

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1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Do we have a better second base prospect in the system?

I assume Vavra is probably somewhere 9-13-ish in Tony's list. Is anyone ranked higher a 2B?

I don’t think we know the answer to that yet.  Maybe they like Hall there more?  Maybe they think Servideo will be better there?

Maybe they prefer Vavra over all of them but think those guys will be good enough and that Vavra could be an outstanding CFer, something we don’t have really at all.

Its a lot of factors at play.

 

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