#5 2020 Prospect: Gunnar Henderson - SS

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/14/5-2020-gunnar-henderson-ss/

[Philip]

Well rats. I suck at this.

[NCRaven]

As always, love the write ups more than who goes where.  Even if I’m doing pretty good with that this year.

[Philip]

Maybe I’m just getting old, but the photographs on the scouting report sure seem to show a little boy. If somebody told me that was a 14-year-old high school freshman, I would believe them. He really looks young.

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

As always, love the write ups more than who goes where.  Even if I’m doing pretty good with that this year.

They are always much more important than the order, particularly when we have a lot of similar prospects for most like outcomes and ceiling. As I said, 5-7 could have moved in any order really and a case could be built. Basically I have them grouped like this so far:

Tier One
Rutschman

Tier Two
Rodriguez
Mountcastle
Kjerstad

Tier Three
Henderson
Hall
#7 prospect

[Frobby]

So far I’ve had each pairing correct, but I had 3/4 reversed and 5/6 reversed.    

Overall, the report on Henderson could not have been more encouraging, while the report on Hall is a bit discouraging but not yet fatal.   Next year will be huge for Hall to show improvement in control and command.    Hopefully the team has given him some feedback on how to achieve gains in that area this offseason.   

In addition to where they are ranked, I like to see how the scouting grades changed from one year to the next.   Last year Hall was graded 30 current value, 60 future value, 70 ceiling.   This year Tony has him at 30/50/65.    That drop in future value is pretty significant.    Hopefully, not irreversible.    
 

Gunnar went from 20/50/60 to 30/50/65.    Nice forward progress there.    

 

[Philip]

Question: if a team privately decides that a high-potential prospect isn’t going to live up to the hype, how easy/likely is it to foist him onto some unsuspecting team in a trade? Every trade of a prospect is trading away potential that could come back and bite them in the butt when it is fully realized, but it might still be justifiable to get what you can on the ground that you don’t think he’s going to be very much.

My concerns about Sedlock seem to have been justified. If Hall can’t improve his control he might be another agonizing Miss( hoping not) But is it possible that the team might decide to move on from him?

[weams]

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

They are always much more important than the order, particularly when we have a lot of similar prospects for most like outcomes and ceiling. As I said, 5-7 could have moved in any order really and a case could be built. Basically I have them grouped like this so far:

Tier One
Rutschman

Tier Two
Rodriguez
Mountcastle
Kjerstad

Tier Three
Henderson
Hall
#7 prospect

I think this is a more logical way to group prospects. Why doesn’t everybody do that? Lump all the guys together. All the 60s, all the 50s, all the 40s, and so on?

Then, how do you place them with in their group is based on how badly you need their skill set, how old they are, and other less important factors.

[VaBird1]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/14/5-2020-gunnar-henderson-ss/

I was hoping for 6.   So nice to have such quality.

[OrioleDog]

I'll be curious to see if he entices Cal to do any spring mentoring come '22 or '23, and watching Games Played by Position when minors games resume closely.  I'm a stick in the mud for shortstops play shortstop, so will be rooting for no 3B/2B flexing for his long term value.  It'll be nothing but a windfall for the org if he does it, but the rosiest projections in my head are still Tejada: Next Generation and if he's really a fast mover maybe the Machado thing happens in August 2022.   Vavra's already got an A ball MVP - I hope to see Henderson contend for one of those in '21.

[weams]

I think he will be our next great SS

[Sports Guy]

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/10/bevy-of-shortstops-wont-immediately-bump-henderson-from-position.html