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Tony-OH

#7 2020 Prospect: Michael Baumann - RHP

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Tony,  I think the write up for Baumann and the ranking is confusing.

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Baumann has established himself as the 2nd best pitching prospect with a chance to stick as a starter. Doesn’t have the pure stuff as DL Hall, but commands the ball better and may be actually undervalued at this position in the rankings.

Tony, you are setting the rankings.  Why should Baumann be undervalued?  If you think he is better than Hall shouldn't you rank him ahead of Hall.

But the forecast is the opposite.  Hall as a middle of rotation starter with a ceiling of top of the rotation.  Baumann as a 4th or 5th starter with a ceiling of middle of the rotation.

Kind of confusing.

Glad you are high on Baumann!!

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33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony,  I think the write up for Baumann and the ranking is confusing.

Tony, you are setting the rankings.  Why should Baumann be undervalued?  If you think he is better than Hall shouldn't you rank him ahead of Hall.

But the forecast is the opposite.  Hall as a middle of rotation starter with a ceiling of top of the rotation.  Baumann as a 4th or 5th starter with a ceiling of middle of the rotation.

Kind of confusing.

Glad you are high on Baumann!!

I agree that was confusing.   But we know Tony vacillated on who to rank higher, so I’ll just consider them more or less equivalent with Hall having the greater upside but greater risk.   

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For me, Baumann just keeps improving his stuff, raising his floor, maybe pushing up his ceiling.  

Maybe Tony is holding back on the likely destination of a 4/5.  I am not sure there are too many 4/5s with MB's velo.  Improving secondaries is music to my ears.  I would bump MB into a likely 3/4 mid-rotation guy and don't think I would be on too lonely an island saying MB is a likely 3 - we could be in trouble if our best pitcher in camp is a 4/5!

IMO, MB is a key prospect just outside our top five who can play a pivotal role in the franchise's fortunes if he can reach that 3 level.  If we internally assume GrayRod will be a 2/3, then adding an internally-developed 3 to the mix lets the FO focus on acquiring one TOR without having to make a second, expensive SP acquisition in order to legitimately compete (depending, of course, on where Means shakes out and how long he is in the organization).

I think MB will start 2021 in the minors, but we will see him promoted some time in May.  Anyone wanting to bet the over on the Os 2021 win total might find a successful MLB debut by MB as the easiest way to surprise on the upside.

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Oh, I see what happened.  Tony said he had Hall at 7th and then at the last minute changed him to 6th.  Baumann was ahead of Hall.

I still think its sad the Hall has dropped this far.

Tony, when do you see Baumann being called up to the O's?  Does he have a chance for OD or will it be later in the year?

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57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony,  I think the write up for Baumann and the ranking is confusing.

Tony, you are setting the rankings.  Why should Baumann be undervalued?  If you think he is better than Hall shouldn't you rank him ahead of Hall.

But the forecast is the opposite.  Hall as a middle of rotation starter with a ceiling of top of the rotation.  Baumann as a 4th or 5th starter with a ceiling of middle of the rotation.

Kind of confusing.

Glad you are high on Baumann!!

It's not the ceiling here but the likelihood of reaching that ceiling. I choose to go with Hall over Baumann because of his extreme ceiling but think Baumann has a better chance of reaching that ceiling. 

Also remember I said I could have built a case for 5-7 to be in any order. Don't get too caught up in the pure numbers here.

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23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Oh, I see what happened.  Tony said he had Hall at 7th and then at the last minute changed him to 6th.  Baumann was ahead of Hall.

I still think its sad the Hall has dropped this far.

Tony, when do you see Baumann being called up to the O's?  Does he have a chance for OD or will it be later in the year?

I think Baumann would have had a chance to make his major league debut this year before the injury. If he doesn't make his major league debut next year I'd be shocked. I would not be surprised if he's not pushing for a rotation spot out of spring training.

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The bit about locating the high spin 4-seam low in zone was interesting - I wonder if the org sees that as something to coach out of him.

I thought the idea of high (back)spin high fastballs and high (forward)spin breaking balls was to always have the pitch viciously breaking up/down away from the swing.   It's always good to command the ball where you want, but if aiming for low strikes, seems like excellent spin would inch it back towards the barrel.  I wonder if he is just so adept at the 4-seam he just likes it even for low pitches, but normally isn't that what the 2-seam sinker is for?

On the other hand, unless you're Zack Britton, I guess the world of today is sinkers are lame, generally descending to meet the plane of those sweet sweet slight uppercuts.   The way I understand the gist of how the Pirates failed to maximize Cole/Glasnow was prescribing too many low 2-seam type pitches.

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2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

The bit about locating the high spin 4-seam low in zone was interesting - I wonder if the org sees that as something to coach out of him.

I thought the idea of high (back)spin high fastballs and high (forward)spin breaking balls was to always have the pitch viciously breaking up/down away from the swing.   It's always good to command the ball where you want, but if aiming for low strikes, seems like excellent spin would inch it back towards the barrel.  I wonder if he is just so adept at the 4-seam he just likes it even for low pitches, but normally isn't that what the 2-seam sinker is for?

On the other hand, unless you're Zack Britton, I guess the world of today is sinkers are lame, generally descending to meet the plane of those sweet sweet slight uppercuts.   The way I understand the gist of how the Pirates failed to maximize Cole/Glasnow was prescribing too many low 2-seam type pitches.

I'd say to look at Curt Schilling for a guy who used his 4-seemer in the zone at varying levels. It can definitely be effective. 

[As an aside, this is quite a talent to be sitting at #7. If he's healthy, he could be a really important piece down the road. I absolutely believe he belongs above Kremer/Akin/Diaz et al.]

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