That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap.
I know how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA. He did that in less than 1/4 of a season. While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something.
First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season. He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season. He has to prove that not only can he stay healthy and play everyday but that playing everyday won’t wear him down as the season goes on. In 2019, he had 380ish PA and his OPs was under 600 for the last month of the season. Did he wear down? Just got cold? Who k laws but he has to show that he can do it over 550+ at bats.
He has basically shown, so far, that he is a guy that will hit 260-265. Could that improve? Sure. Do I expect him to take some huge leap? No way. I would expect him to be in the 255-280 range. Not a terribly low floor but not a high ceiling either.
As Frobby mentioned, his ISO isn’t likely to be sustainable, so predicting a slugging around 500 (career 476) makes sense to me. That is improvement.
Its the OBP that gets me here. His just doesn’t walk much. Yes, in the SSS of last year, his Bb rate improved a little. Could it go to 7 or even 8%? Yes, I think it can. As he shows more power and continues to improve, it’s possible teams stay away from him more. If he does that, that brings him into the Nunez area of walk rates. Nunez was roughly a 250/310 hitter with a 7.5ish% walk rate. As I said, I would expect Santander to have a better BA and that is what will drive that OBP. So, even if he got into those Nunez rates, we are still talking a 315-340 OBP.
RZ’s projection is on the high side of a reasonable ceiling. Reasonable being defined as something that you don’t have to sit there and be overly optimistic to say he can get there. Playing the odds so to speak.
Im just not sure where you think he can realistically add another 50 points of OPS. Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season. 3 of the last 4 years, we have seen about an average of 25 players have a 900 OPS or higher. That includes the SSS of last year. Prior to that stretch, it was usually in the 15 player range.
I think Mancini is a more complete hitter than Santander is. You are essentially saying Santander will take the same leap Mancini did in 2019. One difference is that Mancini had already shown he could play a full season and that he could hit in the 290s at the ML level. His leap was still totally unexpected, at least to the level it went and I would be surprised if he got to that level again. Again, it’s possible...but I think it’s over the top to say it should happen. Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.