Outfield depth? We need it.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Flatly disagree.  

Santander 1.7 rWAR, 37 games 

Hays 0.7 rWAR, 33 games

Stewart 0.6 rWAR, 31 games

Mountcastle 0.5 rWAR, 35 games

Mullins 0.4 rWAR, 48 games 

Every single one of them played significantly over replacement value.  The O’s were 5th in the AL in Wins Above Average for the outfield, at +1.1.   These were small sample sizes, and we could see regression in 2021, but given the ages and experience levels of these players, I’d say the more likely scenario is that as a group we see improvement on a performance that already was pretty good.    

 

 

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

i was trying to say 1 of Mountcastle or Mancini likely wind up at first. 

I think Mancini plays first if he's able to play in the field.

I'm not at all certain that Mountcastle would be better served at first. 

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Look at the number of games.  

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Remember WAR is a cumulative stat, if each played a full season those numbers would be higher, so long as they kept hitting

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...you got me one guy with close to WAR and everybody else less than 1. Less than 1 hardly screams star.

Most of them played less than a quarter of a full season.  

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Remember WAR is a cumulative stat, if each played a full season those numbers would be higher, so long as they kept hitting

Sure ...but there’s nothing saying that Mullins doesn’t go into a spiral. Hayes stays healthy. Really , Mountcastle is the only OF that I feel comfortable with his growth and progression. Santander did well but he hasn’t started a full season yet either.

[Roll Tide]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most of them played less than a quarter of a full season.  

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

None of this has anything to do with what you initially said.  You made it seem like their WAR wasn’t a big deal because it’s a low number.  But without the context of games played, that’s just a false statement.

No one is saying they would have all been 3-4 WAR guys but they showed that ability in the sample size of 2020.

[Roll Tide]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

None of this has anything to do with what you initially said.  You made it seem like their WAR wasn’t a big deal because it’s a low number.  But without the context of games played, that’s just a false statement.

No one is saying they would have all been 3-4 WAR guys but they showed that ability in the sample size of 2020.

Plenty of AAAA players have a 1/4 season where they looked like MLB pieces 

[scOtt]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Never mind then.

Can't resist...

 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think that you can project their 2020 stats X 3 or 4. As I mentioned....let’s see Mullins hit consistently for a full season, let’s see if Hayes can stay off the DL, and I’m willing to give Santander a mulligan based solely on the fact that he really hasn’t been injured prior to this season.

I made it very clear in my post that it was a small sample size and they could regress.    But the simple fact is, they all performed significantly above replacement level in the relatively short time they played.   And, because of their age and experience level, as a group  I like their chances of improving rather than regressing.   That’s not to say that all of them will improve.   But collectively I think the chances of improvement are better than 50/50.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Sure ...but there’s nothing saying that Mullins doesn’t go into a spiral. Hayes stays healthy. Really , Mountcastle is the only OF that I feel comfortable with his growth and progression. Santander did well but he hasn’t started a full season yet either.

I kind of agree and WHO saw THAT coming!!!? 😛

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Mountcastle and Mancini are not outfielders, unless standing in the outfield with a glove counts.

You keep saying this about Mountcastle and you keep being wrong.  He was roughly average in LF with very little game experience behind him.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

You keep saying this about Mountcastle and you keep being wrong.  He was roughly average in LF with very little game experience behind him.

You are incorrect. I looked him up just to make sure. He had zero outs above average, zero runs prevented, at FanGraphs, he had minus 1.8 dWAR, negative DRS at every position, including sadly, 1B, which was his worst. He has mildly positive OF UZR/150, but that’s his only above zero stat. 
I know that defense stats take a long time to normalize, but defense has always been the knock on MC, he admits it himself, so it is incorrect to suggest he is a positive defender, though he may hit well enough that it doesn’t matter. I would rather have a real Of and put MC at DH.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Philip

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

You are incorrect. I looked him up just to make sure. He had zero outs above average, zero runs prevented, at FanGraphs, he had minus 1.8 WAR, negative DRS at every position, including sadly, 1B, which was his worst. He has mildly positive OF UZR/150, but that’s his only above zero stat. 
I know that defense stats take a long time to normalize, but defense has always been the knock on MC, he admits it himself, so it is incorrect to suggest he is a positive defender, though he may hit well enough that it doesn’t matter. I would rather have a real Of and put MC at DH.

Mountcastle was -1.8 dWar in half of an abbreviated season?  I find that hard to believe.  He would have had to make Jose Canseco look like Willie Mays.