Outfield depth? We need it.

[Philip]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mountcastle was -1.8 dWar in half of an abbreviated season?  I find that hard to believe.  He would have had to make Jose Canseco look like Willie Mays. 

I checked at fangraphs. The stat might be different at BBR, But I always use FanGraphs

[Philip]

29 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mountcastle was -1.8 dWar in half of an abbreviated season?  I find that hard to believe.  He would have had to make Jose Canseco look like Willie Mays. 

I want to stress that was only defensive WAR and not total. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Philip said:

I checked at fangraphs. The stat might be different at BBR, But I always use FanGraphs

You are misinterpreting the meaning of the stat.   dWAR (which is just called “Defense” on Fangraphs) is a combination of the positional value (how difficult is the position to play) and then fielding value (whether the player is above or below average at the positions he played)   Mountcastle had a positional value of -1.8 and a fielding value of +0.1, and with rounding that comes to -1.8.   But that number shows he was basically average at the positions he played, he just happened to play positions that are easy.   By the way, positional value also includes games at DH, which are strongly negative.  

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Plenty of AAAA players have a 1/4 season where they looked like MLB pieces 

Ok..but again, this has nothing to do with your post.

[Number5]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

You are incorrect. I looked him up just to make sure. He had zero outs above average, zero runs prevented, at FanGraphs, he had minus 1.8 dWAR, negative DRS at every position, including sadly, 1B, which was his worst. He has mildly positive OF UZR/150, but that’s his only above zero stat. 
I know that defense stats take a long time to normalize, but defense has always been the knock on MC, he admits it himself, so it is incorrect to suggest he is a positive defender, though he may hit well enough that it doesn’t matter. I would rather have a real Of and put MC at DH.

You say NCRaven is incorrect, then you cite stats that show that Mountcastle was average at the positions he played, which is exactly what NCRaven said.  He said average, not above average.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

You are misinterpreting the meaning of the stat.   dWAR (which is just called “Defense” on Fangraphs) is a combination of the positional value (how difficult is the position to play) and then fielding value (whether the player is above or below average at the positions he played)   Mountcastle had a positional value of -1.8 and a fielding value of +0.1, and with rounding that comes to -1.8.   But that number shows he was basically average at the positions he played, he just happened to play positions that are easy.   By the way, positional value also includes games at DH, which are strongly negative.  

This. And to be clear, the defense value cited by Fangraphs is in runs, not wins.  The dWAR on bb-ref is in wins (roughly runs/10), and also includes the positional adjustment.

Compare Mountcastle to Austin Hayes.  Hayes played 180 innings in center, and 94 in RF/LF.  He was a +3 fielder overall, and his positional adjustment based on that mix of innings was -0.2.  So he he was about three runs better than an average MLB fielder.  Mountcastle was about two runs worse.  So in ~35 games the difference in defensive value between Hayes and Mountcastle was roughly five runs, or half a win.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

You say NCRaven is incorrect, then you cite stats that show that Mountcastle was average at the positions he played, which is exactly what NCRaven said.  He said average, not above average.

Mountcastle didn’t look lost in the outfield. But, in no way do I think we will ever see anything out there from him that would be anything other than ordinary. That said ...If he can OPS .950+ you can live wot he his OF defensive mediocrity 

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

You are misinterpreting the meaning of the stat.   dWAR (which is just called “Defense” on Fangraphs) is a combination of the positional value (how difficult is the position to play) and then fielding value (whether the player is above or below average at the positions he played)   Mountcastle had a positional value of -1.8 and a fielding value of +0.1, and with rounding that comes to -1.8.   But that number shows he was basically average at the positions he played, he just happened to play positions that are easy.   By the way, positional value also includes games at DH, which are strongly negative.  

I appreciate that clarification, but he looked awful. And at baseball savant he’s zero or below zero in everything I checked.

[Sports Guy]

I totally disagree that Mountcastle looked awful out there. Berroa was an awful OFer and he is who we should measure against if we are using the word awful.

Mountcastle looked like a GGer compared to him.

 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

I appreciate that clarification, but he looked awful. And at baseball savant he’s zero or below zero in everything I checked.

Zero is average on Baseball Savant.   

I’m not particularly defending his fielding.   I didn’t watch enough to form a strong opinion one way or the other, and in any event, defensive stats based on 23 games in the outfield have very limited value.    But for whatever value they do have, they don’t support the opinion that Mountcastle shouldn’t carry a glove.   And I don’t think anyone’s opinion should be set in stone based on such a very small sample.   We’ll get a better look next year.   
 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I totally disagree that Mountcastle looked awful out there. Berroa was an awful OFer and he is who we should measure against if we are using the word awful.

Mountcastle looked like a GGer compared to him.

 

The whole idea of “looked awful” is a questionable concept.   If modern metrics have taught us anything, it’s that a guy can look pretty good in the field but actually be below average, or vice versa.   In the OF this has a lot to do with what kind of jump the fielder gets and whether he takes good routes.   Those things are hard to pick up watching on TV and not just focusing on the one player the whole game.  A guy can have OK speed and catch everything he reaches, and yet be below average due to these factors.   Or, a guy can be well above average even if he occasionally drops a ball if these factors play in his favor.   

The other problem with “looks terrible” is that 1-2 plays can skew your opinion of a player, especially if the memorable play (good or bad) occurs before you’ve seen the player a lot.   
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The whole idea of “looked awful” is a questionable concept.   If modern metrics have taught us anything, it’s that a guy can look pretty good in the field but actually be below average, or vice versa.   In the OF this has a lot to do with what kind of jump the fielder gets and whether he takes good routes.   Those things are hard to pick up watching on TV and not just focusing on the one player the whole game.  A guy can have OK speed and catch everything he reaches, and yet be below average due to these factors.   Or, a guy can be well above average even if he occasionally drops a ball if these factors play in his favor.   

The other problem with “looks terrible” is that 1-2 plays can skew your opinion of a player, especially if the memorable play (good or bad) occurs before you’ve seen the player a lot.   
 

Eyes lie

[NCRaven]

Funny thing is to my eyes, he didn't look "awful" at all.  He looked like someone learning a new position on the fly.  If he is athletic enough to truly be an average defender in LF, his bat will provide big time value at that position.

[OriolesMagic83]

If I had to bet on better defensive value going forward, I would choose Mountcastle over Stewart.  I would think that Mountcastle can play an average to slightly below average LF and won't embarass himself.  His best position is probably 1B and his athleticism would be an asset there.  There have been many worse corner OFs for the O's, Delmon Young, Trumbo, and of course Jack Cust come to mind.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

There have been many worse corner OFs for the O's, Delmon Young, Trumbo, and of course Jack Cust come to mind.

Hopefully “better than those guys” is not the standard we’re trying to meet.