Jump to content
Tony-OH

#13 2020 Prospect: Terrin Vavra - 2B/UTL

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I was just surprised that our 13th prospect didn’t have a higher likely outcome.

It was 2nd division starter or utility guy, right? And with a 50 ceiling. That's a ML player who, best case, is a good starter on a good team or likely is still a guy with some value to a ML team. Especially if he can hold his own in the outfield. My take here is that:

1) Tony's understandably being conservative in general on this list because he hasn't seen a lot of these guys for a full year.
2) He's going by what he's heard.
3) There are guys lower on this list that are a bit farther away but who have higher potential.
4) Vavra, based on Tony and rankings from other sites with some credibility, has some potential to be a real contributor to the ML team within 2 years.

I actually think Tony's grade is pretty accurate based on the feedback, but whether he should be ranked over Baumler, Mayo, Rom, Smith, Hall, Wells, Bradish, Stowers, Hernaiz, Haskin and others is up for debate and, ultimately, not really important. Heck, at least one site has him at 7. They must think he's decent.

All those guys have risk and they all have had a big layoff from baseball, or at least from being seen. Vavra got put here because he's closer, he has produced on the field, and thus has somewhat lower risk, is my guess.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/20/2020 at 12:12 PM, Philip said:

That’s what I was wondering. A while ago, I checked about a dozen farm systems to see where the final 50 FV player was.  I don’t remember where the Orioles were exactly,  high single digits like eight or nine or something, and I do remember that compared well with the other systems I checked.

I think generally people tend to overestimate the number of players that a good farm system typically produces over a given period of time.   Let’s define a 50 as a guy who produces 10 WAR in the 6+ years he’s under team control.    In 2013, 200+ players debuted, but only 33 met that standard.    So basically, an average of one per team per year.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think generally people tend to overestimate the number of players that a good farm system typically produces over a given period of time.   Let’s define a 50 as a guy who produces 10 WAR in the 6+ years he’s under team control.    In 2013, 200+ players debuted, but only 33 met that standard.    So basically, an average of one per team per year.   

Yep, same thing when folks call a mid to late first round pick a bust because they are merely a ML player and not a really good ML player.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Philip said:

Defense gets harder as one progresses through the minors because Exit velocity increases with more advanced hitters. So it is possible for defense to decline a bit. But I’m not sure that mediocre defense regularly improves during the journey through the minors. It is not wrong to point out that Vavra has not shown impressive defense in the minors, nor am I blowing anything out of proportion. And I certainly haven’t said,” it’s just the minors,” because defense is defense. Fumbling a ball in AAA is no different than booting one in the bigs. If miller is an example of a good hit bad glove utility guy, we might find that he is an exception to the rule. Certainly he would be as an Oriole. To qualify hitting by saying “it’s the minors” is entirely valid. On what planet do you think AA pitching is like ML pitching?
i wasn’t lamenting anything. I was just surprised that our 13th prospect didn’t have a higher likely outcome.

Ok, I didn’t say you did. Was talking about offense.
 

- You said lack of defense only works if he has a strong bat.
- I asked you to define strong bat because he’s shown .400+ OBP and .900+ OPS in each of the last two seasons. 
- you replied that it’s only been shown in the minors, which could be said of most guys on this list (or any team’s farm), so it doesn’t really mean much as a rebuttal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Ok, I didn’t say you did. Was talking about offense.
 

- You said lack of defense only works if he has a strong bat.
- I asked you to define strong bat because he’s shown .400+ OBP and .900+ OPS in each of the last two seasons. 
- you replied that it’s only been shown in the minors, which could be said of most guys on this list (or any team’s farm), so it doesn’t really mean much as a rebuttal. 

Oh, yes that’s a valid point. I should have said it remains to be seen. His offense in the minors has been good but lots of guys hit well in the minors without that success translating into the bigs. Yes that kind of goes without saying, but defense is defense regardless of level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is in the last 30 seconds of this 50-minute podcast, but FWIW they had the Hartford (Rockies AA) play by play guy as a guest Nevin expert, and skimming Vavra at the end he said he thought Vavra would have had a good chance to make the Yard Goats this year (i.e., do the Low-A to AA double bump in 2020).

The other Nevin nuggets were August 2019 Eastern League Player of the Month, and giving the near 1B only 2019 positional context as in part being driven by having Colton Welker as a teammate.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Nah, I’m not wrong. however, If I may my father’s comment half way through a performance of Mahler 8: ” well, I’ve had about as much of this as I can stand. Let’s go find something interesting to eat.“ And that is what I am going to do… God bless you and happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
    • I posted way back at the beginning of the thread that I thought it was possible Nunez had another level of improvement left in him.   If I’m guessing (which is all it is), I think Hays and Santander will be better hitters than Nunez at their respective peaks.    But I don’t know it for sure.   It’s sort of a moot point since we agree Nunez isn’t really competing with those two for at bats.   As to Stewart, I’m guessing he will not turn out to be as good a hitter as Nunez, though I’m not sure about that, either.  
    • o   The St. Louis Cardinals franchise has been around since 1882. That's 139 seasons. In all of that time (1882-present), who holds the all-time Cardinals franchise record for most consecutive strikeouts in a game? Is it Bob Gibson ??? Grover Cleveland Alexander ??? Jesse Haines ??? Dizzy Dean ??? No. While those superstars shined brightly for many years and many games for the Redbirds (especially Gibson and Haines), none of them holds the franchise record (1882-present) for the most consecutive strikeouts in a game. If not one of them, then who ??? Perhaps Bob Forsch, Steve Carlton, Mort Cooper, or John Tudor ??? Nix again. Believe it or not, it is none other than JOHN SMOLTZ. In 2009, in the twilight of his career and well past his prime, future Hall-of-Famer Smoltz struck out 7 consecutive batters on August 23rd against the Padres ........ IN HIS VERY FIRST GAME AS A CARDINAL. And mind you, this WAS NOT vintage John Smoltz. This was a 42 year-old pitcher who was hanging on at the end of his storied career, probably for no other reason than wanting to get every inch of love out of the game that he had been playing for the better part of his life. In fact, previous to the Cardinals signing him as a free agent that August, Smoltz has been absolutely dreadful pitching for the Red Sox (which is why they released him in the first place), going 2-5 with an 8.33 ERA. Smoltz pitched 6 more games for the Cardinals, and retired at the end of the season. Strange, but true.   o
    • I’m not sure I buy your Baseball Savant argument.   It’s not like Nunez started playing yesterday.   We’ve seen him perform for parts of three seasons.    His style of hitting (somewhat low BA and OBP, fairly high K rate, good power) has some value.    The average team had a .227/.312/.407 OPS at DH last year.    Nunez has hit .253/.319/.463 for us the last three years, and better than that last year.    So he is a good enough hitter to help some team primarily at DH.
    • Not really..you showed he’s not elite.  Obviously.  No one has argued otherwise.  
    • Hays and Santander could be better hitters but they aren’t now and if you want to assume that those guys will get better, Nunez could as well.   Sure, Stewart benefits but he also could get at bats regardless if Nunez is here.  I can’t imagine Mancini is an everyday player right off the bat.  
    • Updated post on first page of thread with 40 man roster info (post #10 I think) for the Shaw/Eshelman move.   I listed Shaw as an outfielder because he has played most of his MLB games in left.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...