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#13 2020 Prospect: Terrin Vavra - 2B/UTL

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

I was just surprised that our 13th prospect didn’t have a higher likely outcome.

It was 2nd division starter or utility guy, right? And with a 50 ceiling. That's a ML player who, best case, is a good starter on a good team or likely is still a guy with some value to a ML team. Especially if he can hold his own in the outfield. My take here is that:

1) Tony's understandably being conservative in general on this list because he hasn't seen a lot of these guys for a full year.
2) He's going by what he's heard.
3) There are guys lower on this list that are a bit farther away but who have higher potential.
4) Vavra, based on Tony and rankings from other sites with some credibility, has some potential to be a real contributor to the ML team within 2 years.

I actually think Tony's grade is pretty accurate based on the feedback, but whether he should be ranked over Baumler, Mayo, Rom, Smith, Hall, Wells, Bradish, Stowers, Hernaiz, Haskin and others is up for debate and, ultimately, not really important. Heck, at least one site has him at 7. They must think he's decent.

All those guys have risk and they all have had a big layoff from baseball, or at least from being seen. Vavra got put here because he's closer, he has produced on the field, and thus has somewhat lower risk, is my guess.

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On 10/20/2020 at 12:12 PM, Philip said:

That’s what I was wondering. A while ago, I checked about a dozen farm systems to see where the final 50 FV player was.  I don’t remember where the Orioles were exactly,  high single digits like eight or nine or something, and I do remember that compared well with the other systems I checked.

I think generally people tend to overestimate the number of players that a good farm system typically produces over a given period of time.   Let’s define a 50 as a guy who produces 10 WAR in the 6+ years he’s under team control.    In 2013, 200+ players debuted, but only 33 met that standard.    So basically, an average of one per team per year.   

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think generally people tend to overestimate the number of players that a good farm system typically produces over a given period of time.   Let’s define a 50 as a guy who produces 10 WAR in the 6+ years he’s under team control.    In 2013, 200+ players debuted, but only 33 met that standard.    So basically, an average of one per team per year.   

Yep, same thing when folks call a mid to late first round pick a bust because they are merely a ML player and not a really good ML player.

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6 hours ago, Philip said:

Defense gets harder as one progresses through the minors because Exit velocity increases with more advanced hitters. So it is possible for defense to decline a bit. But I’m not sure that mediocre defense regularly improves during the journey through the minors. It is not wrong to point out that Vavra has not shown impressive defense in the minors, nor am I blowing anything out of proportion. And I certainly haven’t said,” it’s just the minors,” because defense is defense. Fumbling a ball in AAA is no different than booting one in the bigs. If miller is an example of a good hit bad glove utility guy, we might find that he is an exception to the rule. Certainly he would be as an Oriole. To qualify hitting by saying “it’s the minors” is entirely valid. On what planet do you think AA pitching is like ML pitching?
i wasn’t lamenting anything. I was just surprised that our 13th prospect didn’t have a higher likely outcome.

Ok, I didn’t say you did. Was talking about offense.
 

- You said lack of defense only works if he has a strong bat.
- I asked you to define strong bat because he’s shown .400+ OBP and .900+ OPS in each of the last two seasons. 
- you replied that it’s only been shown in the minors, which could be said of most guys on this list (or any team’s farm), so it doesn’t really mean much as a rebuttal. 

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19 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Ok, I didn’t say you did. Was talking about offense.
 

- You said lack of defense only works if he has a strong bat.
- I asked you to define strong bat because he’s shown .400+ OBP and .900+ OPS in each of the last two seasons. 
- you replied that it’s only been shown in the minors, which could be said of most guys on this list (or any team’s farm), so it doesn’t really mean much as a rebuttal. 

Oh, yes that’s a valid point. I should have said it remains to be seen. His offense in the minors has been good but lots of guys hit well in the minors without that success translating into the bigs. Yes that kind of goes without saying, but defense is defense regardless of level.

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It is in the last 30 seconds of this 50-minute podcast, but FWIW they had the Hartford (Rockies AA) play by play guy as a guest Nevin expert, and skimming Vavra at the end he said he thought Vavra would have had a good chance to make the Yard Goats this year (i.e., do the Low-A to AA double bump in 2020).

The other Nevin nuggets were August 2019 Eastern League Player of the Month, and giving the near 1B only 2019 positional context as in part being driven by having Colton Welker as a teammate.  

 

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