I think scientists probably have a pretty good idea of how many infections there will be in March 2021 and how many people will have been vaccinated by then. And I seriously doubt that the vaccination priorities are going to go to healthy men ages 20-40 who are not essential workers. I agree we are getting ahead of ourselves, but teams aren’t going to be in any hurry to play games in empty stadiums.
And this, my friends, is why Chris Davis won’t be cut this winter. Starting in May means the O’s would save $4-6 mm off his salary, assuming the salaries are cut proportionally to games missed. By the way, I don’t know if that is a correct assumption, because I’m not sure if the deal that MLB cut with the players for 2020 carries over into 2021 or not if games are missed.
My quibble here is that the term “market rate” means what teams are willing to pay. I’d say teams don’t pay these players their theoretical value. But we mean the same thing.
I don’t think the market is static. Two players could have identical performance and demand could be higher or lower depending on circumstances. Let’s say you have two players who each were worth 1.0 WAR. One is a DH, the other is a middle infielder. Those two players may have equal value hypothetically, but one could be in greater demand than the other depending on what’s available in the market. A team that already has two DH types and a shortage of middle infielders is not going to be willing to pay the same amount for each player.