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Tony-OH

Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?  

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  1. 1. Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

    • Adam Hall and Kyle Bradish
    • Darrell Hernaiz and Adam Hall
    • Darrell Hernaiz and Brenan Hanifee
      0
    • Brenan Hanifee and Kevin Smith
    • Kevin Smith and Kyle Bradish


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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely how a smart organization will think.  You don’t have an infinite number of spots.  You have to see other players.  When a guy has been in your organization for several years and is far older than the competition, there isn’t a lot of reason to keep him around.  
 

You can’t just hang onto guys forever and hope it clicks for them.

What spot was Yaz taking up in AAA? the Orioles gave Mason Williams (27) 494 PAs and Christopher Bostick (26) 442 PAs in the outfield. 

Yaz barely got a look in spring training before they jettisoned him, and just a year after he OPS'd .801 in Norfolk (before they introduced the superballs in 2019 that made it a hitter's league). He's a guy who outperforms his expected stats (WOBA .400 vs .355 xWOBA) and I think he probably didn't score high on exit velocity and launch angle with Orioles during spring training and Elias felt that along with age made him worthless.

I'm not saying that the Orioles should have known he would break out with some changes, but it does bare looking at the process a little closer. What scouting did they use to bring in Dwight Smith Jr.? Who didn't know he was a disaster in the outfield? For some reason the Blue Jays DFA'd after he had hit well in his major league debut, so what did they see that the Orioles FO did not?

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What spot was Yaz taking up in AAA? the Orioles gave Mason Williams (27) 494 PAs and Christopher Bostick (26) 442 PAs in the outfield. 

Yaz barely got a look in spring training before they jettisoned him, and just a year after he OPS'd .801 in Norfolk (before they introduced the superballs in 2019 that made it a hitter's league). He's a guy who outperforms his expected stats (WOBA .400 vs .355 xWOBA) and I think he probably didn't score high on exit velocity and launch angle with Orioles during spring training and Elias felt that along with age made him worthless.

I'm not saying that the Orioles should have known he would break out with some changes, but it does bare looking at the process a little closer. What scouting did they use to bring in Dwight Smith Jr.? Who didn't know he was a disaster in the outfield? For some reason the Blue Jays DFA'd after he had hit well in his major league debut, so what did they see that the Orioles FO did not?

 

 

I don’t quite get the focus on DS Jr.  They took a flyer on a younger player who had good success in a SSS in the majors.  Maybe they didn’t feel he would play much OF or that his defense was good enough for a team that was going to be lucky to win 60 games.

He was a stop gap, nothing acquisition.  He’s just meaningless.

And when Yaz OPs’ed 800 in Norfolk, he was also on the verge of filing for social security, so that just doesn’t resonate with me that much.

Now, I do agree that perhaps they didn’t need to drop him but if they saw no reason to keep him, why keep him?  If you don’t see him as anything of value at the Ml level and he has been around your organization for a while, what’s the point?  At least a guy like Mason Williams can play CF a little bit and has some speed.  He could be a piece you use for a short stint.  If Yaz is bringing nothing to the table, why keep him?

And btw, at the time, guys like Diaz, Stewart and Hays were possibly going to be at Norfolk soon.  Had they known injuries would occur and hold some of those guys back, maybe they don’t trade Yaz but at the time, they wanted to see those players more..as they should have.

28 year old career minor league with a sub 800 OPS is not a player you think is going to succeed in the majors.  No one would think that.

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t quite get the focus on DS Jr.  They took a flyer on a younger player who had good success in a SSS in the majors.  Maybe they didn’t feel he would play much OF or that his defense was good enough for a team that was going to be lucky to win 60 games.

He was a stop gap, nothing acquisition.  He’s just meaningless.

And when Yaz OPs’ed 800 in Norfolk, he was also on the verge of filing for social security, so that just doesn’t resonate with me that much.

Now, I do agree that perhaps they didn’t need to drop him but if they saw no reason to keep him, why keep him?  If you don’t see him as anything of value at the Ml level and he has been around your organization for a while, what’s the point?  At least a guy like Mason Williams can play CF a little bit and has some speed.  He could be a piece you use for a short stint.  If Yaz is bringing nothing to the table, why keep him?

And btw, at the time, guys like Diaz, Stewart and Hays were possibly going to be at Norfolk soon.  Had they known injuries would occur and hold some of those guys back, maybe they don’t trade Yaz but at the time, they wanted to see those players more..as they should have.

28 year old career minor league with a sub 800 OPS is not a player you think is going to succeed in the majors.  No one would think that.

Agreed, and I don't think anyone will argue that, but the point you are missing if that the Orioles choose DSJ over Yaz through their process. That process failed obviously in this case. That's not an opinion, those are facts. 

Now Yaz could be a total one off, but I'm honestly more concerned over the scouting that missed DSJ's obvious short comings defensively.

The fact that DSJ was younger was certainly a plus for him, and again, I'm not saying this is some huge issue, but at the end of the day a team that is trying to rebuild gave away a player that has turned into an impact guy.

If I were running things, I would want to reassess the process and the people who gave me the information to see where the breakdown happened? Was it something we missed, or did he just miraculously changed his stroke and suddenly became an impact player at the MLB level? 

Remember, it was not the current FOs development people who supposedly changed his stroke to be more level and go gap to gap vs a more upper cut power stroke. 

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Just to piggyback off of this.

Can you imagine if we found out the Os were dropping younger, higher upside players in favor of 27 year old mediocre players in hopes you catch lightning in the bottle?

They would be crucified for that and rightfully so.  
 

It’s just not a smart use of resources.

You're smarter than this, SG.

I'm not advocating that the FO keep old failed minor leaguers in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. I'm advocating that they understand what they missed so they can capitalize on those assets in the future.

If you don't think it was a process failure, I don't know what to say. 

You're essentially saying a 27 y.o. isn't worth the energy. I'm saying that 27 year old can be a 22-23 year old with similar issues in the future, and I don't want us to miss him.

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36 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You're smarter than this, SG.

I'm not advocating that the FO keep old failed minor leaguers in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. I'm advocating that they understand what they missed so they can capitalize on those assets in the future.

If you don't think it was a process failure, I don't know what to say. 

You're essentially saying a 27 y.o. isn't worth the energy. I'm saying that 27 year old can be a 22-23 year old with similar issues in the future, and I don't want us to miss him.

In 99% of the cases like Yaz, the 27 y/o isn’t worth the energy, time or resources.  He is the 1%.  I would never plan for the 1%.

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59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Agreed, and I don't think anyone will argue that, but the point you are missing if that the Orioles choose DSJ over Yaz through their process. That process failed obviously in this case. That's not an opinion, those are facts. 

Now Yaz could be a total one off, but I'm honestly more concerned over the scouting that missed DSJ's obvious short comings defensively.

The fact that DSJ was younger was certainly a plus for him, and again, I'm not saying this is some huge issue, but at the end of the day a team that is trying to rebuild gave away a player that has turned into an impact guy.

If I were running things, I would want to reassess the process and the people who gave me the information to see where the breakdown happened? Was it something we missed, or did he just miraculously changed his stroke and suddenly became an impact player at the MLB level? 

Remember, it was not the current FOs development people who supposedly changed his stroke to be more level and go gap to gap vs a more upper cut power stroke. 

Well, we don’t know what the thought process was on Smith to make this judgment.  
 

What we do know is that they obtained Smith 3 weeks prior to trading Yaz.  There certainly could be a connection there or it could simply be a coincidence.

One thing we know is that they played Smith a lot and they never should have (although we were always going to suck, so whatever) and they felt that Yaz couldn’t be in that role.  They were wrong, I agree.  If you want to fault them for Taking a flyer on him and not scouting him correctly, that’s fine..seems to be a lot of hand wringing over nothing though.

 

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I simply disagree re: Yaz.

Re: Smith, I assume they had some scouting/analytic reason to think the bat could be plus. There's no way they actually considered fielding as important, or they wouldn't have taken that flyer. If they didn't even know his fielding was atrocious and only thought they could piece together a solid bat/fielder, then it was a massive failure. I really think they were taking a flyer on a potential impact bat though because it's hard to believe they weren't aware of his defense. It just turned out that he wasn't the bat they hoped.

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I simply disagree re: Yaz.

Re: Smith, I assume they had some scouting/analytic reason to think the bat could be plus. There's no way they actually considered fielding as important, or they wouldn't have taken that flyer. If they didn't even know his fielding was atrocious and only thought they could piece together a solid bat/fielder, then it was a massive failure. I really think they were taking a flyer on a potential impact bat though because it's hard to believe they weren't aware of his defense. It just turned out that he wasn't the bat they hoped.

It did make it easier to not promote guys.

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8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because he's the one got away.  And people love to point to it as incompetence.

What everyone fails to understand is that every franchise has stories like this.  We've got a thread applauding Santander getting a Gold Glove nomination, yet no one here pats ourselves on the back for getting that guy from Cleveland, but eeeeeeeeveryone wrings their hands over letting Yaz go.

Every franchise has this happen to them, we're not any different.  

I certainly pat the O’s on the back for getting Santander. I loathe Dan, but I sure give him due credit for getting Santander. He’s certainly among the best overall rule 5 picks of the last decade or so. I think the best might be Joe Biagini, but only at the moment, because The San Tan Man(tr) may surpass him next year.

Regarding Yak, Grant Brisbee’s end of season Giants grades point out that Yaz was top ten in every offensive category( except walks, I think) and he was good on defense as well. I don’t mind letting him go, but I do mind refusing to give him a chance. It’s not like anybody on a 47-win team was blocking him, so there will never be an acceptable excuse.

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I am with SG on the DSJ vs. Yaz decision. Yaz had to go to San Francisco to become who he currently is. Something clicked there, and not in Baltimore with the previous regime. Yaz is, as SG said, a 1% outlier. Good for him. Seems like a great guy. But he was not a prospect anymore. Anyone could have taken him as a rule 5, but that did not happen either. So, 29 teams missed him, not just Baltimore. 
 

With DSJ, they saw a guy who can hit any and all pitching, and likely thought he was enough of an athlete to improve in LF and be maybe a tick below average out there. Instead, they got a guy who had some injuries, shoulder and neck, that really affected him in 2019. I think his throwing was much better in the Spring of 2019 when I saw him. After that, he was out of shape, timid and really ambivalent about his defense. The shoulder took a below average arm and turned it into a little league arm. The neck injury incurred when he ran into the wall, likely made him never want to take a risk again out there. And it shows. 
 

Two years ago, this looked a lot better than it turned out. The facts are the facts, but I think most teams would have done what the Orioles did. 

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6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Agreed, and I don't think anyone will argue that, but the point you are missing if that the Orioles choose DSJ over Yaz through their process. That process failed obviously in this case. That's not an opinion, those are facts. 

Now Yaz could be a total one off, but I'm honestly more concerned over the scouting that missed DSJ's obvious short comings defensively.

The fact that DSJ was younger was certainly a plus for him, and again, I'm not saying this is some huge issue, but at the end of the day a team that is trying to rebuild gave away a player that has turned into an impact guy.

If I were running things, I would want to reassess the process and the people who gave me the information to see where the breakdown happened? Was it something we missed, or did he just miraculously changed his stroke and suddenly became an impact player at the MLB level? 

Remember, it was not the current FOs development people who supposedly changed his stroke to be more level and go gap to gap vs a more upper cut power stroke. 

I agree completely that there was a problem with the process, but we may all thank our Lord that the people who screwed up that process are now gone. 

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I liked Yaz.   But, come on.  He OPS'd .801 at his 3rd season at Norfolk.    2016, Age 26, 680 OPS.   2017 .739 OPS.   2018  .801 OPS.      Please tell me we aren't using statistics to say that Yaz, at age 28, in his 3rd try at AAA, with an .801 OPS was anything but a 4th outfielder candidate for the future.    In hindsight, you take Yaz over Dwight Smith 100 of 100 times.   At the time, Yaz was a potential 4th OF.  Dwight Smith was a longshot but  the chances of his offensive lightbulb going on seemed better than Yaz's.    As someone else said, there were 29 other teams, if they had seen something in Yaz, could have taken him in the Rule 5.   No one saw the untapped potential.  No one.    It would be interesting to hear from Yaz what changes he did make.   That would be interesting.   His career was at a crossroads.   28 years old and still a AAA player.    Good for him but no one saw it coming.

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13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I liked Yaz.   But, come on.  He OPS'd .801 at his 3rd season at Norfolk.    2016, Age 26, 680 OPS.   2017 .739 OPS.   2018  .801 OPS.      Please tell me we aren't using statistics to say that Yaz, at age 28, in his 3rd try at AAA, with an .801 OPS was anything but a 4th outfielder candidate for the future.    In hindsight, you take Yaz over Dwight Smith 100 of 100 times.   At the time, Yaz was a potential 4th OF.  Dwight Smith was a longshot but  the chances of his offensive lightbulb going on seemed better than Yaz's.    As someone else said, there were 29 other teams, if they had seen something in Yaz, could have taken him in the Rule 5.   No one saw the untapped potential.  No one.    It would be interesting to hear from Yaz what changes he did make.   That would be interesting.   His career was at a crossroads.   28 years old and still a AAA player.    Good for him but no one saw it coming.

We were a 47-win team. That team should give chances to everybody in the system. They gave David Williams six at bats, and good for him. He struck out in five of them and was never seen again. Fine.

They should have given him a chance. He’s a NL top-10 offense player. And the Giants didn’t sacrifice a virgin or anything to get that out of him.
The difference between Smith and Yaz was that we HAD Yaz. He was already here. There was no reason not to give him a chance.

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4 minutes ago, Philip said:

We were a 47-win team. That team should give chances to everybody in the system. They gave David Williams six at bats, and good for him. He struck out in five of them and was never seen again. Fine.

They should have given him a chance. He’s a NL top-10 offense player. And the Giants didn’t sacrifice a virgin or anything to get that out of him.
The difference between Smith and Yaz was that we HAD Yaz. He was already here. There was no reason not to give him a chance.

 

They gave him a chance.  3 years in AAA.   Hindsight is 20/20.   They had Smith, Mullins, Santander, Mancini, etc.   That's who they gave the chances to.   It's called roster decisions.   This one came back to bite them but no one saw it coming.   Unless of course, perhaps you stated how Yaz was a breakout candidate at the time of the trade?

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

They gave him a chance.  3 years in AAA.   Hindsight is 20/20.   They had Smith, Mullins, Santander, Mancini, etc.   That's who they gave the chances to.   It's called roster decisions.   This one came back to bite them but no one saw it coming.   Unless of course, perhaps you stated how Yaz was a breakout candidate at the time of the trade?

No, I didn’t say he was anything. I said he should’ve had a chance and Smith wasn’t even on the team. Like I said, nobody was blocking him and there’s no reason not to give him a chance. You’ve never heard of David Williams but they gave him six at bats.

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