Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Tony-OH

Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?  

30 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Who are the #19 and #20 Prospects?

    • Adam Hall and Kyle Bradish
    • Darrell Hernaiz and Adam Hall
    • Darrell Hernaiz and Brenan Hanifee
      0
    • Brenan Hanifee and Kevin Smith
    • Kevin Smith and Kyle Bradish


Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Yaz was in the minors for 6 years and a well known college player.  I'd say he was evaluated by many baseball scouts and evaluators for many years.  I don't think you'll find anyone who thought he was a swing change and philosophical change from being an impact player at the ML level.   You didn't have him ranked in our top 30 prospects.  What did you miss?

Elias has brought in different technologies that are supposedly used to help evaluate players as well as help them improve. They used those vests, those devices on the knobs of the bats and Statcast.

What I'm saying is that Elias may want to take a look at what they missed with Yaz. Clearly his development or lack thereof was not on Elias' watch, but he brought in these technologies and they apparently did not indicate that Yaz had the potential to do what he's done.

I also clearly stated that I never had Yaz on any of my lists so you can take the smart ass "What did you miss?" comment and keep it to yourself because that's disrespectful. I don't have nearly the access that the Orioles have on all of his data (Data was collected on AAA players in 2019 and available to the teams) so the question becomes, why did Yaz show nothing and then with some quick changes with SF coaches he becomes an impact player?

If I'm Elias, I want to know the answer to that. 

I also clearly showed that Elias's record of bringing in similar players to a Yaz has been pretty dismal. 

When you take the two together, I think it's fair to ask the question what did they miss? If you don't fine, but at the end of the day, Elias gave away an impact player for nothing and has acquired none in two years. those are facts that can't be denied no matter how much you wanna wear orange colored glasses.

 

  • Upvote 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So if I understand your position, Elias bares no responsibility for quickly evaluating and getting rid of Yaz. So how long does Elias need to have a guy in his organization before he bares some responsibility?

I'm surprised by this comment, Tony.  I'm not sure how you can blame Elias for Yaz coming out of nowhere to perform as he has for the Giants.  You really think there was reason to expect that Elias should have seen that coming?  Wow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I'm surprised by this comment, Tony.  I'm not sure how you can blame Elias for Yaz coming out of nowhere to perform as he has for the Giants.  You really think there was reason to expect that Elias should have seen that coming?  Wow.

You a few others really are missing my point. I'm done trying to make it. Read what I wrote in other posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Elias has brought in different technologies that are supposedly used to help evaluate players as well as help them improve. They used those vests, those devices on the knobs of the bats and Statcast.

What I'm saying is that Elias may want to take a look at what they missed with Yaz. Clearly his development or lack thereof was not on Elias' watch, but he brought in these technologies and they apparently did not indicate that Yaz had the potential to do what he's done.

I also clearly stated that I never had Yaz on any of my lists so you can take the smart ass "What did you miss?" comment and keep it to yourself because that's disrespectful. I don't have nearly the access that the Orioles have on all of his data (Data was collected on AAA players in 2019 and available to the teams) so the question becomes, why did Yaz show nothing and then with some quick changes with SF coaches he becomes an impact player?

If I'm Elias, I want to know the answer to that. 

I also clearly showed that Elias's record of bringing in similar players to a Yaz has been pretty dismal. 

When you take the two together, I think it's fair to ask the question what did they miss? If you don't fine, but at the end of the day, Elias gave away an impact player for nothing and has acquired none in two years. those are facts that can't be denied no matter how much you wanna wear orange colored glasses.

 

I know Elias wants to know if he missed something in his evaluation, sure. Why wouldn't he. But I doubt he is losing sleep over this.

Yaz was traded on March 23, 2019. At that time, he was a 28 year old OF with average speed, maybe an average arm, below average power for a corner OF that does not play CF. He's 5-10 178 lbs. and was no longer a prospect. He was slowed by injuries, often playing dinged up. Dan Duquette alluded to his injuries in an interview that I saw and stated he had struggled with his progression. He had never really excelled in AAA. He was behind Austin Hays, Yusniel Diaz, Anthony Santander, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart for playing time in AA/AAA OF playing time. No one knew that several of these players would struggle with injuries and inconsistency, but they were all much more highly regarded prospects than Yaz. At that time, the only AAA OF he was more highly regarded than was Jaycob Brugman, and he was absolutely terrible. Elias decided to cut bait so that actual prospects could play meaningful innings and get the developmental at bats. No other team even thought so much of him as to take him in the rule 5 draft. Did the Giants know something? No, they just got lucky that this one panned out. They had no idea he would do what he has done, no way. 

As far as the technology, it isn't something that will diagnose and fix every swing. It gives you lots of data, and it takes time, more than a few weeks, to work through any changes/adjustments needed. Obviously, Elias and his staff were not impressed with what they saw compared to the other guys. Then, Yaz was traded and something changed over the next few months in AAA for him. Great for him. Maybe he started to make good changes from what he learned from the Elias staff, but it took time to begin to show in games. That is often the case with swing changes, approach adjustments. Maybe it was the Giants who found something. Maybe it was something else, who knows. 

Was he going to be the same player in Baltimore, facing the AL East? IDK, I would guess likely not. There have been many examples over they years of players who had impact careers out West and got traded to an Eastern team, only to struggle. Would it have been nice to see him do that here in Baltimore, of course. I just don't see why this has become such a hotly contested thing. Hindsight is easy to see clearly. His tools have never indicated this kind of production. There is not one prospect report that says he would do anything like he is doing. 

I know you are pretty positive about Elias and Sig. To point to Elias's failure to produce waiver wire pick ups and minor trades into an impact player is incomplete, honestly, in COVID 2020 crazy season. He has no money to spend, and yet most of the ML team was picked up off waivers and minor league free agency and still competed on most nights. The final record looks worse than it was. I would say his record was excellent in the first half. Santander got hurt and many young players struggled badly. Solid approaches went out the window entirely. 

  • Pedro Severino had an OPS north of .850 in July/August and he began to look like an all star (offensively), but he chased much more in September and his numbers faded badly to .250/.322/.388/.710
  • Jose Iglesias was an impact signing, despite the injuries and many at bats in the DH role .373/.400/.556/.956
  • Hanser Alberto is what he is a well below-average defender with little power, and he faded badly in September as well .283/.306/.393/.698
  • Pat Valaika was very good, I thought, for what his role is. .277/.315/.475/.791
  • Rio Ruiz is probably not the answer at 3B, but I think he gets one more year to see if he can figure it out .222/.286/.427/.713
  • Richie Martin will be vastly improved, he reported so much stronger than in 2019 and I think his injury robbed him of a breakout of sorts, the swing looked so much more fluid and quick in Spring camp.
  • Ramon Urias might just make Alberto expendable, and I believe he will hit and produce better overall numbers and play better defense.
  • Obviously, Dwight Smith Jr. was a failure. Early in 2019, he certainly looked like he was a certain upgrade to Yaz. The the injuries in late May, neck and shoulder. He has not been the same since.

Most of the resources have gone into minor league and international infrastructure. To criticize Elias for the Yaz trade in hindsight, honestly it's silly. No one batted an eye at the time of the deal. Can we just be happy for the guy and not look for someone to blame? If there is a pattern here, then ok, there's a problem. This one baffles everyone because no one saw this coming.

And where would Yaz play in our OF next season? Over Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mancini...? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I know Elias wants to know if he missed something in his evaluation, sure. Why wouldn't he. But I doubt he is losing sleep over this.

Yaz was traded on March 23, 2019. At that time, he was a 28 year old OF with average speed, maybe an average arm, below average power for a corner OF that does not play CF. He's 5-10 178 lbs. and was no longer a prospect. He was slowed by injuries, often playing dinged up. Dan Duquette alluded to his injuries in an interview that I saw and stated he had struggled with his progression. He had never really excelled in AAA. He was behind Austin Hays, Yusniel Diaz, Anthony Santander, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart for playing time in AA/AAA OF playing time. No one knew that several of these players would struggle with injuries and inconsistency, but they were all much more highly regarded prospects than Yaz. At that time, the only AAA OF he was more highly regarded than was Jaycob Brugman, and he was absolutely terrible. Elias decided to cut bait so that actual prospects could play meaningful innings and get the developmental at bats. No other team even thought so much of him as to take him in the rule 5 draft. Did the Giants know something? No, they just got lucky that this one panned out. They had no idea he would do what he has done, no way. 

As far as the technology, it isn't something that will diagnose and fix every swing. It gives you lots of data, and it takes time, more than a few weeks, to work through any changes/adjustments needed. Obviously, Elias and his staff were not impressed with what they saw compared to the other guys. Then, Yaz was traded and something changed over the next few months in AAA for him. Great for him. Maybe he started to make good changes from what he learned from the Elias staff, but it took time to begin to show in games. That is often the case with swing changes, approach adjustments. Maybe it was the Giants who found something. Maybe it was something else, who knows. 

Was he going to be the same player in Baltimore, facing the AL East? IDK, I would guess likely not. There have been many examples over they years of players who had impact careers out West and got traded to an Eastern team, only to struggle. Would it have been nice to see him do that here in Baltimore, of course. I just don't see why this has become such a hotly contested thing. Hindsight is easy to see clearly. His tools have never indicated this kind of production. There is not one prospect report that says he would do anything like he is doing. 

I know you are pretty positive about Elias and Sig. To point to Elias's failure to produce waiver wire pick ups and minor trades into an impact player is incomplete, honestly, in COVID 2020 crazy season. He has no money to spend, and yet most of the ML team was picked up off waivers and minor league free agency and still competed on most nights. The final record looks worse than it was. I would say his record was excellent in the first half. Santander got hurt and many young players struggled badly. Solid approaches went out the window entirely. 

  • Pedro Severino had an OPS north of .850 in July/August and he began to look like an all star (offensively), but he chased much more in September and his numbers faded badly to .250/.322/.388/.710
  • Jose Iglesias was an impact signing, despite the injuries and many at bats in the DH role .373/.400/.556/.956
  • Hanser Alberto is what he is a well below-average defender with little power, and he faded badly in September as well .283/.306/.393/.698
  • Pat Valaika was very good, I thought, for what his role is. .277/.315/.475/.791
  • Rio Ruiz is probably not the answer at 3B, but I think he gets one more year to see if he can figure it out .222/.286/.427/.713
  • Richie Martin will be vastly improved, he reported so much stronger than in 2019 and I think his injury robbed him of a breakout of sorts, the swing looked so much more fluid and quick in Spring camp.
  • Ramon Urias might just make Alberto expendable, and I believe he will hit and produce better overall numbers and play better defense.
  • Obviously, Dwight Smith Jr. was a failure. Early in 2019, he certainly looked like he was a certain upgrade to Yaz. The the injuries in late May, neck and shoulder. He has not been the same since.

Most of the resources have gone into minor league and international infrastructure. To criticize Elias for the Yaz trade in hindsight, honestly it's silly. No one batted an eye at the time of the deal. Can we just be happy for the guy and not look for someone to blame? If there is a pattern here, then ok, there's a problem. This one baffles everyone because no one saw this coming.

And where would Yaz play in our OF next season? Over Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mullins, Mancini...? 

Clearly I am failing to get my point across. I'm tired. Have any opinion you want.

At the end of the day, you have an opinion, I have facts. My facts state that Elias has dumped one player that became an impact player and he has not acquired any. Does that mean he will never acquire any? No. 

Does it mean he missed something of that the technology may not always have the answers, incomplete. I like a lot of what Elias has done in changing things within the organization, but so far his talent evaluations of players he's brought in have not been very good. Grant it, these guys are waiver claims and few of them will turn into anything, but so far he's found middle/long relievers and utility guys or sub par guys they've run out as starters the last two years.

I expect things to improve, but what we don't know yet is whether he will be given a budget to help improve the team in the future. Afterall, if they are really making coaching moves based on salary (I still don't believe this) then you can throw away any chances of the team being competitive soon so he will need to build completely from within.

My hope was that Elias had the technological and scouting eye to find unearthed talent in other organizations. Instead, he failed to pick up Yaz's potential and the guys he has selected have not shown they are part of a winning future.  Sure, maybe we can give him a pass on Yaz, but he also hired the coaches yet the SF coaches in less then a few weeks found a way to make Yaz an impact player.

The man at the top gets credit when things go well, but also must take the blame when they don't.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Number5 said:

You really think there was reason to expect that Elias should have seen that coming? 

I think the point that Tony and I are trying to make that people might not get is this.

If there's one case where you want to know what you missed and why you missed it, it's the case of the player who suddenly becomes a big time impact guy when he leaves. I don't care about his age. I care what he became. If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why.

In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think the point that Tony and I are trying to make that people might not get is this.

If there's one case where you want to know what you missed and why you missed it, it's the case of the player who suddenly becomes a big time impact guy when he leaves. I don't care about his age. I care what he became. If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why.

In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

I think people get the point you are making.  They just think it’s wrong or don’t exactly agree with the entirety of what you are saying.

And, even more than that, they disagree that the technology is going to show enough in a small sample size of a few weeks for this to be brought up at all.

It seems that some want to place the blame on Elias, his staff and his methods and say all of that failed when it comes to Yaz.  All we are saying is that he wasn’t here long enough for that to be true and he wasn’t here long enough because he proved over a long stretch of time that he wasn’t a good player.  
 

I think if you want To blame anyone, you blame Duq and the people he has working for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

All we are saying is that he wasn’t here long enough for that to be true and he wasn’t here long enough because he proved over a long stretch of time that he wasn’t a good player.  

If that's the case, that they were really only here a few weeks, I agree that it's not worth fretting too much over. Tony's other points about finding our own Yaz are good ones I think, but my concern was over losing an impact guy in the first place without knowing it. If that's on Duq, fine. I thought Elias was here longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personal note, I do wish people would not take disagreements personally or even just with irritation.  This thread turned into a fantastic read and discussion, I've enjoyed reading the discussion on both sides of the table.  One thing I did not take not of with this Yaz discussion (and maybe I missed it, it was a lot to read) is that the Giants were desperate for outfield help at the time.   Even more than our awful rebuilding team, right?   And that also allowed for an extended look for Yaz?  Maybe the light doesn't come on if he doesn't get this opportunity (which, right or wrong, it didn't look like he was going to get with the O's).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If that's the case, that they were really only here a few weeks, I agree that it's not worth fretting too much over. Tony's other points about finding our own Yaz are good ones I think, but my concern was over losing an impact guy in the first place without knowing it. If that's on Duq, fine. I thought Elias was here longer.

So Elias was hired in late November.  He obviously had to spend a lot of time implementing a lot of things before he even got to ST.  Yaz was traded in late March.  He essentially had about a month with him and let’s face it, Yaz wasn’t exactly high on his priority list.

I think that’s all people are saying.

I agree with the larger point about not being able to find diamonds in the rough although I think they have gotten a lot out of Alberto.  I also like Armstrong.  Still, a large majority of these players are always going to fail because, well they aren’t good.  They are placeholders.  I’m not worried about judging Elias on these types of players.  Where I think he has failed is just flat out not acquiring better talent.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Clearly I am failing to get my point across. I'm tired. Have any opinion you want.

At the end of the day, you have an opinion, I have facts. My facts state that Elias has dumped one player that became an impact player and he has not acquired any. Does that mean he will never acquire any? No. 

Does it mean he missed something of that the technology may not always have the answers, incomplete. I like a lot of what Elias has done in changing things within the organization, but so far his talent evaluations of players he's brought in have not been very good. Grant it, these guys are waiver claims and few of them will turn into anything, but so far he's found middle/long relievers and utility guys or sub par guys they've run out as starters the last two years.

I expect things to improve, but what we don't know yet is whether he will be given a budget to help improve the team in the future. Afterall, if they are really making coaching moves based on salary (I still don't believe this) then you can throw away any chances of the team being competitive soon so he will need to build completely from within.

My hope was that Elias had the technological and scouting eye to find unearthed talent in other organizations. Instead, he failed to pick up Yaz's potential and the guys he has selected have not shown they are part of a winning future.  Sure, maybe we can give him a pass on Yaz, but he also hired the coaches yet the SF coaches in less then a few weeks found a way to make Yaz an impact player.

The man at the top gets credit when things go well, but also must take the blame when they don't.

 

No, I get it. I respectfully disagree that there is a problem here. Every other team missed on him. Every organization has these kinds of things happen. Now and then, an outlier comes along. There are things that happen in the development of players that you cannot quantify or expect based on three weeks of data.
 

One of the things that has not been mentioned much is how he has come to take care of his body. Earlier in his minor league career, he did not do as well conditioning his body. He has come to understand the conditioning that it takes to stay healthy. I think that physical training, along with whatever adjustments in approach and swing, has made a difference. 
 

You have hindsight facts, it’s a great benefit to have. I, and others, am pointing out the factors of the decision at that time. I agree they should analyze this and learn what they can, but to dwell on this as a failure, nah. I’m just happy for Yaz. He was not going to get playing time in AAA with the Orioles in 2019. 
 

And I think this will happen more now that there is a focus on scouting and player development. We just will not have room for all of them. The rise of the farm system under Elias has been well documented. To point out the misses is only part of the story. Is the development of the players he kept more important in the long term than a 28 year old who was, in fact, mediocre at AAA for several years? We’ll know that answer in a few years. 

I agree with you on most things, and I do hold him accountable. Some of his trade acquisitions look a bit sketchy so far, agreed. But to judge him on one outlier that got sent out, and several guys off waiver claims, nah, that’s not me. Way too early to be throwing bricks at Elias for player acquisition for me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

No, I get it. I respectfully disagree that there is a problem here. Every other team missed on him. Every organization has these kinds of things happen. Now and then, an outlier comes along. There are things that happen in the development of players that you cannot quantify or expect based on three weeks of data.
 

One of the things that has not been mentioned much is how he has come to take care of his body. Earlier in his minor league career, he did not do as well conditioning his body. He has come to understand the conditioning that it takes to stay healthy. I think that physical training, along with whatever adjustments in approach and swing, has made a difference. 
 

You have hindsight facts, it’s a great benefit to have. I, and others, am pointing out the factors of the decision at that time. I agree they should analyze this and learn what they can, but to dwell on this as a failure, nah. I’m just happy for Yaz. He was not going to get playing time in AAA with the Orioles in 2019. 
 

And I think this will happen more now that there is a focus on scouting and player development. We just will not have room for all of them. The rise of the farm system under Elias has been well documented. To point out the misses is only part of the story. Is the development of the players he kept more important in the long term than a 28 year old who was, in fact, mediocre at AAA for several years? We’ll know that answer in a few years. 

I agree with you on most things, and I do hold him accountable. Some of his trade acquisitions look a bit sketchy so far, agreed. But to judge him on one outlier that got sent out, and several guys off waiver claims, nah, that’s not me. Way too early to be throwing bricks at Elias for player acquisition for me. 

I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think we really disagree all that much. I'd like to just add that just because I'm pointing out that his player acquisitions so far have been less than successful does not mean it will always be that way. 

It's not like taking chances on guys like Ruiz or Wojo wasn't worth a shot considering the internal alternatives, it's just that his process has yet to yield any real fruit. For all of Duquette's down points, he did find Santander in a Rule 5 draft and Nunez on waivers even towards the end of his reign. 

I'd just like to see Elias and crew find a diamond in the rough and polish it into a jewel with their process, scouting and coaching. 

To me, Hanser Alberto was a relatively successful pickup. 3.4 rWAR in what amounts to 1.4 seasons, compared to Núñez’s 2.2 rWAR in 1.8 seasons.   Yeah Nunez has the better bat but Alberto’s overall package is better IMO since he has some defensive value.    

For that matter, Alberto’s 3.4 rWAR the last two seasons is more than Santander’s 2.9, though I’d certainly say the trend favors Santander being the better player over the next several years.    I’m looking forward to seeing if Santander can sustain the progress he’s shown the last two years.    
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why.

In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

I don’t think the Yaz/Arrieta analogy is very apt.   Arrieta was a highly regarded 5th round pick who got a large signing bonus, was Carolina League pitcher of the year, was in the BA top 100 a couple of times and progressed reasonably quickly to the majors without a ton of MiL hiccups.   His talent was obvious for all to see, and the puzzle was why wasn’t it translating to major league success.    Yaz on the other hand was a 14th round pick senior sign who never really excelled in higher levels of the minors.    It was frustrating when Arrieta succeeded so quickly with the Cubs because it really seemed like we should have been able to unlock his talent.    Yaz’s success, on the other hand, seemed to come out of nowhere.   I found that more astounding than frustrating.   It’s a shame Elias’s staff didn’t see that in Yaz in the very short time they had to look at him, but I don’t see it as a big failure, whereas I do see our failure to unlock Arrieta’s abilities as a big failure.

  • Upvote 2
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...