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GuidoSarducci

How the Orioles could win the World Series in 2021

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The Baltimore Orioles will not win the World Series in 2020.

This is how the Orioles might win the World Series next year (2021)

1. Trevor Bauer (SP) - $35 million. The biggest need for the Orioles a TOR starter.  Bauer is the best FA pitcher on the market, and will command a large contract. 

2. DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B) - $15 million.   Would have to decide whether it makes more sense to have LeMaheiu at third and Alberto at second or vice versa.

3. Alex Colome (CP) - $10 million.  While the Orioles bullpen did performances, there was a real problem with closer.   Colome fulfills this need.

 

Rotation:

1. Bauer

2. Means

3. Cobb

4/5 Two of Akin/Kremer/Eschelman

Bullpen:

Lakins/Scott/Armstrong/Fry

CP: Colome

Lineup:

C  Two of Severino/Sisco/Rustchman

1B Mancini

2B LeMahieu

SS Iglesias

3B Alberto

LF Mountcastle/Stewart

CF Hays/Mullins

RF Santander

DH - platoon of Stewart/Severino/Sisco/etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I appreciate this thought experiment, but I think it’s more productive to think about reasonable possibilities: some addition-by-subtraction moves, plus a couple of additions who surprisingly outperform their traditional expectations( think Steve Pearce) and in-house guys who do the same( John Means, etc) how close can we get? 
remember once in the playoffs, luck is a bigger benefactor of the mediocre teams than it is the truly great ones.

I don’t think there’s any way, but I DO think we can be third in the division and possibly get the 2WC, without any silly FA signings or desperation trades.

Edited by Philip

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Can we beat Boston and Toronto? Maybe. MAYBE. Can we beat Texas, Seattle and Anaheim/Houston? Probably. Can we beat KC and Detroit? Sure!

So yeah we could conceivably get the 2 WC if Cleveland has an off year. 
It requires luck in large measure, ad some poor decisions by the other guys, but yeah, it’s possible.

 

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We are not spending 10 mil on a relief pitcher. I would rather wait and sign Lindor or Correa when we really are more competitive. Certainly I would love to sign Bauer but you're going to have to face that there will be higher bidders. 

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The Orioles, optimistically, were a 60-something win team in 2020.  They need to add roughly 25 wins to be even a wildcard contender.

Bauer/LeMahieu/Colome get you maybe 12 wins, if you're being charitable.  And you are running with the slightly crazy idea that a smaller-market 60-something win team is going to be able to lure three top free agents in one offseason.

So you still need 10-20 wins of improvement out of the existing roster.  I suppose that could happen, but do you really think Severino, Mountcastle, Mullins, Stewart, Iglesias, Santander etc are likely to be a lot better over 162 games?  Or that Mancini comes back from cancer and is immediately really good?  Or that Cobb's arm stays attached?

I think the realistic '21 ceiling is around .500, more likely case around 70 wins.  They're not signing any top free agents, and it would be really positive if they got a lot more growth than backsliding.

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Oh, and the Colome signing would be nonsense.  Paying $10M a year for a modern closer with 7 K/9 during his peak seasons?  You might as well set the money on fire.  He had an 0.81 ERA, so his agent will be selling the heck out of that while doing magic tricks to get you to avoid looking at his 16 strikeouts in 22 innings.

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Yeah, I don't want any part of Trevor Bauer for 35 million.  LeMahieu also turns 33 in July, maybe ok for 3rd base but not for 2nd.  And as pointed out by Drungo, Colome's k rate isn't good.

Even then, that trio doesn't put this team as constructed over the top.  

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I don’t know about you guys, but there are certain thread titles that I get excited to read, and not always for the OP, but moreso for the replies!!! Thanks for your optimism and fandom Guido!!

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The WS is too lofty a goal. But the playoffs is not. I hate the 2WC for lots of reasons,, but as long as it exists, and we don’t do anything drastic to achieve it, it. it might be doable, with wise moves, a bit of luck for us, and some dunderheaded moves by the guys nearest to us, ie Cleveland and Toronto, it could happen.

ah, but who bells the cat? What needs to happen? 


seriously, it all depends on who we take in the Rule 5.

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On 10/27/2020 at 4:23 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

The Baltimore Orioles will not win the World Series in 2020.

This is how the Orioles might win the World Series next year (2021)

1. Trevor Bauer (SP) - $35 million. The biggest need for the Orioles a TOR starter.  Bauer is the best FA pitcher on the market, and will command a large contract. 

2. DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B) - $15 million.   Would have to decide whether it makes more sense to have LeMaheiu at third and Alberto at second or vice versa.

3. Alex Colome (CP) - $10 million.  While the Orioles bullpen did performances, there was a real problem with closer.   Colome fulfills this need.

 

Rotation:

1. Bauer

2. Means

3. Cobb

4/5 Two of Akin/Kremer/Eschelman

Bullpen:

Lakins/Scott/Armstrong/Fry

CP: Colome

Lineup:

C  Two of Severino/Sisco/Rustchman

1B Mancini

2B LeMahieu

SS Iglesias

3B Alberto

LF Mountcastle/Stewart

CF Hays/Mullins

RF Santander

DH - platoon of Stewart/Severino/Sisco/etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry Sir but this is a. Pipe dream. And buying free agents at a premium never seems to work out.

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On 10/27/2020 at 4:23 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

1. Trevor Bauer (SP) - $35 million. The biggest need for the Orioles a TOR starter.  Bauer is the best FA pitcher on the market, and will command a large contract. 

2. DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B) - $15 million.   Would have to decide whether it makes more sense to have LeMaheiu at third and Alberto at second or vice versa.

3. Alex Colome (CP) - $10 million.  While the Orioles bullpen did performances, there was a real problem with closer.   Colome fulfills this need.

So previously I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to the details here, but my guess is that these three are going to cost what you think, and bring the Orioles about seven wins a year, declining as they age.

Bauer is 29 and has had 1.3 seasons where he's looked like an ace.  Career FIP of 3.85.

LeMahieu is 31 and has a career OPS+ of 102. 

And we've talked about Colome and his unimpressive peripherals.

It'll be lovely in a few years when the O's are paying an entire Rays' payroll for three average guys.

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On 10/28/2020 at 4:47 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles, optimistically, were a 60-something win team in 2020.  They need to add roughly 25 wins to be even a wildcard contender.

Bauer/LeMahieu/Colome get you maybe 12 wins, if you're being charitable.  And you are running with the slightly crazy idea that a smaller-market 60-something win team is going to be able to lure three top free agents in one offseason.

So you still need 10-20 wins of improvement out of the existing roster.  I suppose that could happen, but do you really think Severino, Mountcastle, Mullins, Stewart, Iglesias, Santander etc are likely to be a lot better over 162 games?  Or that Mancini comes back from cancer and is immediately really good?  Or that Cobb's arm stays attached?

I think the realistic '21 ceiling is around .500, more likely case around 70 wins.  They're not signing any top free agents, and it would be really positive if they got a lot more growth than backsliding.

You also need to consider that we are subtracting Chris Davis in place of Mancini.  I think that could net us 4 wins.   If we see improvements from younger players and we might just squeak into the playoffs.

I think some players have pretty much peaked, such as Sisco/Severino.  But we also have younger players who could see improvement and breakout years. 

We could also be like the 2012 Orioles who outperformed their Pythagorean record by 11 wins (won 93 when run differential predicted 82)

 

Edited by GuidoSarducci

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