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GuidoSarducci

How the Orioles could win the World Series in 2021

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On 10/27/2020 at 6:23 PM, Aristotelian said:

We are not spending 10 mil on a relief pitcher. I would rather wait and sign Lindor or Correa when we really are more competitive. Certainly I would love to sign Bauer but you're going to have to face that there will be higher bidders. 

Neither are the Astros or Indians, not even for All-Stars who are better than Colome at their best.

The Astros call on probably broken Osuna the same one we probably ought to have made with broken Britton that year, but it is one more data point for one or both of owners crying poverty and the Astros looking at the egress of all their good players.

Now, are any members of the last good Astros team part of the next good Orioles team is a juicy bone to pick sometime in the next 6-36 months?

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1 hour ago, GuidoSarducci said:

You also need to consider that we are subtracting Chris Davis in place of Mancini.  I think that could net us 4 wins.   If we see improvements from younger players and we might just squeak into the playoffs.

I think some players have pretty much peaked, such as Sisco/Severino.  But we also have younger players who could see improvement and breakout years. 

We could also be like the 2012 Orioles who outperformed their Pythagorean record by 11 wins (won 93 when run differential predicted 82)

Sure, strange and wonderful things occasionally happen.  If Davis is really gone that'll help a little bit.  There certainly should be some improvement from internal sources.  But Cobb might be traded or get hurt again.  I'd like to think Mountcastle will hit .333 with an .878 OPS, but we'll see.  Similar with Santander.  It's probably 90/10 that Iglesias won't come within 150 points of his 2020 OPS.

I think they win something like 70.

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On 10/27/2020 at 4:23 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

 

How the Orioles Could Win the World Series in 2021

 

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The best bet is to build a deep, young group of players from the minors, draft and cheap, younger role players.  Have 28 contributing role players and future all-stars that can be a good base and take us a year or two to be a .500 team.  Then with a low payroll, and high draft choices, add what you need to be a playoff team after you see what develops.  A bullpen does not need veterans.  It needs young guys with electric stuff.  Lots of them throughout the roster and upper minors....  Most bullpen guys 15 years ago were failed starters.  Even now that is still a good place to get relievers.  Other teams failed starters that are still young but throw well for short stints.  If you have a 28 man roster with a payroll of $30 million and all controllable for 3 more years, that is when you add that #1 and #2 starter and maybe one veteran bullpen guy and a couple of bats.  Continue to see what our outfield is and who shakes out.  I'm sure we have at least two starters out there for a playoff team and one or two role players out there.  Severino and Sisco may not be the top catchers in baseball.  But they may be among the best backup catchers if we let them continue to play and Rutschman becomes an All-star.  Mancini will not be on the next Orioles playoff team most likely but he may be a decent role player or somebody that gets us something via trade in a couple of years.  Alberto, Ruiz, Nunez, Iglesias should not be a starting playoff infield but every team needs a couple of veteran backups.  Perhaps Alberto fits that role nicely and we continue to draft and develop more infielders.  Draft, develop, depth and deal from depth.  And hope and pray that Rodriguez and Hall make it as at least #3 and #4 starters and we have Means, Rodriguez and Hall at the BACK of the rotation.  Lately we have made the mistake of having guys like Bundy, Cobb, Guthrie, Lopez, Cabrera, Ponson, Bedard, etc.... at the front of our rotation and attempted to add behind them.  Get those type of guys, develop them, bring them along as not the featured guys and then when we are really ready go out and get the Ace or Two.  Kind of like Astros developing McCullers and others in their lineup and bullpen and then deal from depth and excess budget and get Verlander and Cole and Greinke..

 

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On 10/28/2020 at 7:47 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

And you are running with the slightly crazy idea that a smaller-market 60-something win team is going to be able to lure three top free agents in one offseason.

 

It's what good message-boarding has been about for over 20 years.  Good thing it is only Orioles fans who think they can sign the top free agents every off-season.

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2 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

It's what good message-boarding has been about for over 20 years.  Good thing it is only Orioles fans who think they can sign the top free agents every off-season.

In 1996 the Orioles signed or otherwise acquired Roberto Alomar, BJ Surhoff, Todd Zeile, David Wells, Randy Myers, Roger McDowell, and had recently picked up Bobby Bonilla and Scott Erickson.  Sure, they were drawing almost four million fans a year and other teams with ridiculous RSNs printing cash weren't a thing.  They'd had winning records each of the four prior seasons.  In the end the payroll was totally unsustainable and the average age of the team a couple years later was about 36.

Whatever, that should be every year!

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On 10/28/2020 at 7:47 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles, optimistically, were a 60-something win team in 2020.  They need to add roughly 25 wins to be even a wildcard contender.

Bauer/LeMahieu/Colome get you maybe 12 wins, if you're being charitable.  And you are running with the slightly crazy idea that a smaller-market 60-something win team is going to be able to lure three top free agents in one offseason.

So you still need 10-20 wins of improvement out of the existing roster.  I suppose that could happen, but do you really think Severino, Mountcastle, Mullins, Stewart, Iglesias, Santander etc are likely to be a lot better over 162 games?  Or that Mancini comes back from cancer and is immediately really good?  Or that Cobb's arm stays attached?

I think the realistic '21 ceiling is around .500, more likely case around 70 wins.  They're not signing any top free agents, and it would be really positive if they got a lot more growth than backsliding.

I could see this team becoming a 70-80 win team assuming some young players step up, Cobb can stay healthy and guys like Baumann, Lowther and/or Zimmermann can step up next year and be effective at the major league level.

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