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10M of Cobb's salary will be deferred in 2021

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I am sure Elias will try to trade Alex Cobb this off season but  10M of his 15m salary will be deferred according to Cot's Contracts.

Here are the noted from Cots:

  • $20M is deferred ($6.5M of 2018 salary and $4.5M annually of 2019-21 salaries), to be paid $2M on 11/30/22 and $1.8M annually each 11/30, 2023-32)
  • if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020, an additional $5.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, to be paid $1.75M annually each 11/30, 2033-35

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

Cots has the O's projected payroll to be 62.3m but  with the 4m deferred of Davis listed salary and the 10M from Cobb's salary the O's would pay out  48.3M in 2021. This is before the decision to non tender any of the players eligible for salary arbitration.

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I already did the math and posted this  previously.  Cobb had 52.1 IP in 2020 during the Os 60 game schedule.  When Cobb's 2020 IP are pro-rated over 162 games, one gets 140.2.  This projected pro-rated number is more than the 130 minimum IP over a full season in his contract that presumably would avoid the deferral of the 2020 $5.5M.

We will have to see what happens and perhaps Cobb will want this $ deferred, but I would not assume the additional $5.5M is deferred for 2020.  On a pro-rated basis, Cobb met the minimum to avoid the deferral.

Now, I don't know if the pro-rated number is the way this would be calculated, but it would be the most logical way to do it to me.

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I just wonder how that effects his trade value?   The O's would have to send money with him either way but a team only needing to pay him 5m in 2021 may be more attractive than 10.5M.  The deferral make make the salary less painful in the near term.

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