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Fangraphs top 50 FA

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Surhoff kind of gets a bad rap here.   His first two return seasons he was paid $1.0 mm and $800 k and produced 0.7 and 1.4 rWAR in part time play.    Both seasons, he played more than expected because guys like Bigbie, Matos and Gibbons kept either getting hurt or underperforming.   But he gave us pretty decent bang for the buck in those years.    He came crashing down to earth in 2005 at age 40 when the O’s brought him back for a third season.   

I was really impressed with Surhoff’s hitting skills his last few years.  He was a tough out and was almost 40.  

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17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He was fine.  It's the front office that put the team in a position where a going nowhere 70-win team had to give significant at bats to a 40-year-old.

Like I said, I think he got more at bats than expected by default.  Looking at 2003, the O’s paid Marty Cordova $3.1 mm to play in 9 games.   They paid $7 mm for David Segui to play in 67 games.   They gave a lot of at bats to Gibbons, Matos and Bigbie but there were holes in the lineup from those two veterans.   

Let’s just say I understand your problem with the whole philosophy of signing Surhoff, but there were other moves made in those years that were far, far worse.    They paid Tony Batista $6.5 mm that year.   
 

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I think he got more at bats than expected by default.  Looking at 2003, the O’s paid Marty Cordova $3.1 mm to play in 9 games.   They paid $7 mm for David Segui to play in 67 games.   They gave a lot of at bats to Gibbons, Matos and Bigbie but there were holes in the lineup from those two veterans.   

Let’s just say I understand your problem with the whole philosophy of signin Surhoff, but there were other moves made in those years that were far, far worse.    They paid Tony Batista $6.5 mm that year.   
 

Maybe the rest of the team could have asked Surhoff things like, “How are you able to hit .300 when you are 39?” Or “How do you have a .350 OBP when you are 39 and don’t hit for power anymore?”   

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5 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

Maybe the rest of the team could have asked Surhoff things like, “How are you able to hit .300 when you are 39?” Or “How do you have a .350 OBP when you are 39 and don’t hit for power anymore?”   

And he would have answered “Get off my lawn!!!”

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19 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is it just me, or is this an exceptionally weak class?  The #8 on the whole list is a KBO import that we're not even sure is going to translate to a MLB player. Kevin Gausman is #14, 60 innings removed from a 5.72 ERA in 2019.

Yeah, not a lot of top end talent here.    Only two guys pegged at $100 mm+, and nobody over $140 mm.    Things got a lot less interesting when Mookie signed his extension.    

I have a feeling the market is going to be pretty limp with all the teams hurting from lost revenue this year and a lot of uncertainty about next year.    

 

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, not a lot of top end talent here.    Only two guys pegged at $100 mm+, and nobody over $140 mm.    Things got a lot less interesting when Mookie signed his extension.    

I have a feeling the market is going to be pretty limp with all the teams hurting from lost revenue this year and a lot of uncertainty about next year.    

 

Which is kind of funny in a way.  Yes, you don’t know how much revenue you can generate but if you sign player X and games are missed, you aren’t spending as much on that player for 2021.  There is a good chance you are getting these guys cheaper than normal but to also not have to pay as much as their salary on 2021?  That further helps out with the signing, although you would obviously rather pay the full amount because that means a full seasons worth of revenues.

It could be a slow moving FA period.  Figure teams will wait a little while to see what happens with the virus and give them a better idea of where things will be.

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9 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

Maybe the rest of the team could have asked Surhoff things like, “How are you able to hit .300 when you are 39?” Or “How do you have a .350 OBP when you are 39 and don’t hit for power anymore?”   

I'm pretty sure they knew.  They all knew.

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There are a few I would call on at the very least.

8. Ha-seong Kim, SS/3B, Age 25

The salary projections here aren't scary, and he's young enough to invest in the risk/reward.  Elias should call on him.  Plus if you get Kim, you can probably let go of one or more or all of Iglesias, Sanchez, Alberto, and Valaika and save money there in the near term.

16. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Age 31

I'd kick the tires on Simmons and just watch his market.  If he could be got for relatively cheap, he could be a guy to go 3 years on.  I'd rather they go for Kim, but if Simmons can be got for 7 mil or less a year, O's can save some money by again parting ways with Iglesias, Sanchez, Alberto, and/or Valaika to afford him.  We would have one of the best defensive SS to stabilize the defense and guide them through the rebuild and possibly into our first year or two in contention.  You'd hope someone in the system would be ready by then. 

19. Tommy La Stella, 2B/1B/3B, Age 32

Would be the perfect complement to platoon with Hanser Alberto in the infield.  His price would have to drop quite a bit, and if it does, he would help stabilize the infield and line up quite a bit. Would probably have to pass on Sanchez (although he would be nice to throw in to the La Stalla/Alberto rotation) and one or both of Valaika and Ruiz to save some money.

26. Kolten Wong, 2B, Age 30

Another one to watch the price on.  If it drops enough, he may be more affordable than the arbitration of Sanchez. Solid defense and bounce back candidate. Could drop Alberto as well.

32. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Age 31

Same scenario as Wong. Strengthens the D.

46. Robbie Ray, SP, Age 29

His 2020 was pretty bad, but he's always had tons of potential and flashed it many times.  I wonder if his price drops to the point that you can offer him a one year deal on the cheap.  If he turns it around, he could be a big trade chip.

50. Chris Archer, SP, Age 32

Article suggests he might be had on a minor league deal as he is coming back from surgery.  Probably no better place to compete for a pitching spot than in Baltimore.  low risk/high reward potential.  Trade chip if he can turn it around.

 

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I have looked through this list and see several guys who could inexpensively upgrade the team, at catcher and 3B and even at SS, probably for less than the cost of a month of Chris Davis. I strongly agree that we shouldn’t make any dumb FA signings, but some smart ones could definitely be made..

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On 11/1/2020 at 9:42 AM, ScGO's said:

There are a few I would call on at the very least.

8. Ha-seong Kim, SS/3B, Age 25

The salary projections here aren't scary, and he's young enough to invest in the risk/reward.  Elias should call on him.  Plus if you get Kim, you can probably let go of one or more or all of Iglesias, Sanchez, Alberto, and Valaika and save money there in the near term.

16. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Age 31

I'd kick the tires on Simmons and just watch his market.  If he could be got for relatively cheap, he could be a guy to go 3 years on.  I'd rather they go for Kim, but if Simmons can be got for 7 mil or less a year, O's can save some money by again parting ways with Iglesias, Sanchez, Alberto, and/or Valaika to afford him.  We would have one of the best defensive SS to stabilize the defense and guide them through the rebuild and possibly into our first year or two in contention.  You'd hope someone in the system would be ready by then. 

19. Tommy La Stella, 2B/1B/3B, Age 32

Would be the perfect complement to platoon with Hanser Alberto in the infield.  His price would have to drop quite a bit, and if it does, he would help stabilize the infield and line up quite a bit. Would probably have to pass on Sanchez (although he would be nice to throw in to the La Stalla/Alberto rotation) and one or both of Valaika and Ruiz to save some money.

26. Kolten Wong, 2B, Age 30

Another one to watch the price on.  If it drops enough, he may be more affordable than the arbitration of Sanchez. Solid defense and bounce back candidate. Could drop Alberto as well.

32. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Age 31

Same scenario as Wong. Strengthens the D.

46. Robbie Ray, SP, Age 29

His 2020 was pretty bad, but he's always had tons of potential and flashed it many times.  I wonder if his price drops to the point that you can offer him a one year deal on the cheap.  If he turns it around, he could be a big trade chip.

50. Chris Archer, SP, Age 32

Article suggests he might be had on a minor league deal as he is coming back from surgery.  Probably no better place to compete for a pitching spot than in Baltimore.  low risk/high reward potential.  Trade chip if he can turn it around.

 

This isn't a bad list. I don't have a problem with tiring kicking on these guys, but I don't expect any of them to be honest. I wouldn't mind signing Ray is the Orioles brass think there is something they can fix. I also don't mind a gamble on Archer if there's a good prognosis on the surgery and he's really available on a minors deal.

I like he idea of Wong or Hernandez up the middle with Iglesias. And while I like Simmons, i think he's going to be too expensive in a weak market. I also expect us to pass on Kim.

Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles don't sign any free agents to Major League deals.

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