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Analysis of 2020 Rule 5 Eligible players

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On 11/6/2020 at 12:30 PM, luismatos4prez said:

I would like to note that there is a whole lot of room on the 40 man roster. Including Mancini and Martin, there are currently 35. But I don't expect Eshelman, Ruiz, and Nunez to be on for long. Plenty of other guys (i.e. Valaika, Wynns, Sulser) could get axed as well.

6 guys could get added without a problem. That still leaves room for waiver claims, our own Rule 5 picks, a FA signing or two, etc.

 

 

 

 

I would DFA Wynns and Sulser. Offer them both AAA contracts and a invite to ST.  I know Hyde likes Sulser but he will be 31 and had an ERA of over 5.00.  The O's have a good chance of getting him back on minor league contract.   The O's have already signed Taylor Davis to a minor league contract probably just so they could take the risk of putting Wynns through waivers.

With the roster at 33 the O's can add 6 and still have a roster spot open for the Rule 5 draft.

I would put Lowther, Baumann, Diaz, Pop, Wells and Mattson.

Lowther, Baumann and Diaz are no brainers.    

Pop, 24, is just the kind of reliever that a rebuilding team would take in the Rule 5 draft.   His high ceiling makes it too risky to leave him off the roster.

Wells, 24, is coming off a stellar year at AA.  Too tempting for some team even if he does not throw hard.   I don't want some team to take him, mess with him and possible return him after messing with him.  He is part of the O's rebuild.  He needs to stay the O's system and show what he can do at AAA.  He could get a call up in the 2nd half.  Even if he is a long reliever he could be a important part of the rebuild.

Mattson, 25,  had a 2.68 ERA and a 0.0985 WHIP with 61 K and 43 IP at AA.   Acquired for Bundy,  he is a guy Elias is going to want to see not lose.

The O's have announced they are moving Bannon to 2B.  Mostly because he doesn't play 3B very well.  I currently have him 6th in line at 2B behind Valaika, Sanchez, Alberto, Urias and Martin.    That is why I would expose him to the draft. 

I think its crazy to think the Valaika would be DFA after he just put up a 791 OPS.   He actually begins ST as a leading candidate to be a everyday player IMO.

Since the O's will try hard to trade Cobb this off season to dump as much of his salary as they can Eshelman provides swingman depth to begin the season.  Only if the O's acqiure someone better do I see him coming off the roster.  Until then I think he stays.

This list has to be set by November 20th.  And while I think there is a good chance they trade Nunez it probably does not happen before that date so he is probably on the roster on Nov  20.

Ruiz has an option and is 3B depth.   The top candidates for 3B are Sanchez and Alberto maybe in a platoon.   Both are arbitration eligible and probably need to be signed or DFA'd by Dec 2nd to avoid arbitration.  I doubt Elias DFA Ruiz but if he does he will be probably be after Sanchez and Alberto contract status is settled.  So Ruiz is probably on the roster on Nov 20th.

JMO

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There is so much flexibility (replaceable parts) to this 40 man roster that you could easily protect 6-7 guys. Without considering the options starting I would protect the following:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP

If I am concerned about the options then I roll the dice on Hanifee and maybe Mattson. I don't see Bannon as a long-term part so I am not worried about losing him. I lean toward protecting pitchers because of the number needed to handle poor performance and injury. 

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58 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

There is so much flexibility (replaceable parts) to this 40 man roster that you could easily protect 6-7 guys. Without considering the options starting I would protect the following:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP

If I am concerned about the options then I roll the dice on Hanifee and maybe Mattson. I don't see Bannon as a long-term part so I am not worried about losing him. I lean toward protecting pitchers because of the number needed to handle poor performance and injury. 

We. Have so many fringe major leaguers that we can remove them from the roster to protect the 9 that need to be protected. For example, the guy we just picked up on waivers that has the good glove. The glove is great but he can’t hit. So it really doesn’t matter if we lose him on a. Waiver claim.

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15 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think its crazy to think the Valaika would be DFA after he just put up a 791 OPS.   He actually begins ST as a leading candidate to be a everyday player IMO.

Since the O's will try hard to trade Cobb this off season to dump as much of his salary as they can Eshelman provides swingman depth to begin the season.  Only if the O's acqiure someone better do I see him coming off the roster.  Until then I think he stays.

Ruiz has an option and is 3B depth.   The top candidates for 3B are Sanchez and Alberto maybe in a platoon.   Both are arbitration eligible and probably need to be signed or DFA'd by Dec 2nd to avoid arbitration.  I doubt Elias DFA Ruiz but if he does he will be probably be after Sanchez and Alberto contract status is settled.  So Ruiz is probably on the roster on Nov 20th.

JMO

Valaika could be a utility guy, but he doesn't play good defense anywhere. Plus, he's arbitration eligible and his career OPS+ is still 72 even after last year. I'm not a believer, and I doubt Mike gives him a million dollars. DFA and minor league contract to compete with Urias next year is most likely. I'm still naively hoping that Sanchez, Iglesias, and Alberto are 2B/3B/SS next year.

There are Tom Eshelmans on the waiver wire at any point during the season. His 2.42 HR/9 isn't a fluke, he just doesn't have ML stuff.

Fair point about Ruiz. He is who he is: an above average 3B defender with a weak bat. But you're right that he probably stays on over the winter.

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5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We. Have so many fringe major leaguers that we can remove them from the roster to protect the 9 that need to be protected. For example, the guy we just picked up on waivers that has the good glove. The glove is great but he can’t hit. So it really doesn’t matter if we lose him on a. Waiver claim.

Here's the problem with that. Let's say we add all of:

Yusniel Diaz - OF
Michael Baumann - SP
Zac Lowther - SP
Alex Wells - SP
Zach Pop - RP
Brenan Hanifee - SP
Isaac Mattson - RP
Rylan Bannon - INF

Then you need some room later of for acquisitions so now you have to risk them on a waiver claim (much more likely to happen than a Rule 5 selection). Obviously Diaz, Baumann and Lowther are obvious adds, but unless Elias think the rest will not only get selected, but actually stick all year with another team, it makes more sense to gain an extra year of protection without clogging up a 40-man spot.

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3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Valaika could be a utility guy, but he doesn't play good defense anywhere. Plus, he's arbitration eligible and his career OPS+ is still 72 even after last year. I'm not a believer, and I doubt Mike gives him a million dollars. DFA and minor league contract to compete with Urias next year is most likely. I'm still naively hoping that Sanchez, Iglesias, and Alberto are 2B/3B/SS next year.

There are Tom Eshelmans on the waiver wire at any point during the season. His 2.42 HR/9 isn't a fluke, he just doesn't have ML stuff.

Fair point about Ruiz. He is who he is: an above average 3B defender with a weak bat. But you're right that he probably stays on over the winter.

I'm not sure I would call him an above average defender. He's average at best but I don't think he brings additional value defensively. statcast had him -5 OOA last year and 0 this year. BR had him -0.3 in 2019 and 0.3 this year. At the end of the day, he doesn't hurt you over there but his defense doesn't make up for his weak bat at the corner. if Ruiz was the athlete that Flaherty was he would make a decent utility guy but he really doesn't move very well in is probably stuck 3B-1b, and maybe some corner outfield.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure I would call him an above average defender. He's average at best but I don't think he brings additional value defensively. statcast had him -5 OOA last year and 0 this year. BR had him -0.3 in 2019 and 0.3 this year. At the end of the day, he doesn't hurt you over there but his defense doesn't make up for his weak bat at the corner. if Ruiz was the athlete that Flaherty was he would make a decent utility guy but he really doesn't move very well in is probably stuck 3B-1b, and maybe some corner outfield.

I don't think there is a clear upgrade to Ruiz at 3B.   I am of the belief that after 500-700 AB's that he has that there is still a little hope that he makes advances offensively.    I agree he is average at 3B but that's not a bad thing.    He had a nice second half in 2019 and had the hot start, albeit very SSS, last year and then got hurt right away.   I hate to give up on him prematurely when there really is no clear upgrade out there.

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18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think there is a clear upgrade to Ruiz at 3B.   I am of the belief that after 500-700 AB's that he has that there is still a little hope that he makes advances offensively.    I agree he is average at 3B but that's not a bad thing.    He had a nice second half in 2019 and had the hot start, albeit very SSS, last year and then got hurt right away.   I hate to give up on him prematurely when there really is no clear upgrade out there.

As of right now, I think he's a favorite to start at 3B once again, but not because I think he's a long term answer, but for now, there is no one better to take his spot currently on the 40-man.

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18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As of right now, I think he's a favorite to start at 3B once again, but not because I think he's a long term answer, but for now, there is no one better to take his spot currently on the 40-man.

Possible platoon with Alberto if he is retained???

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We. Have so many fringe major leaguers that we can remove them from the roster to protect the 9 that need to be protected. For example, the guy we just picked up on waivers that has the good glove. The glove is great but he can’t hit. So it really doesn’t matter if we lose him on a. Waiver claim.

I agree, I can name at least 10 guys that could be released and replaced easily. I'd like to see the O's part ways with Pedro Severino especially. I'd like to see Sisco start 100 games and see what he can do with regular ABs. 

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think there is a clear upgrade to Ruiz at 3B.   I am of the belief that after 500-700 AB's that he has that there is still a little hope that he makes advances offensively.    I agree he is average at 3B but that's not a bad thing.    He had a nice second half in 2019 and had the hot start, albeit very SSS, last year and then got hurt right away.   I hate to give up on him prematurely when there really is no clear upgrade out there.

Alberto playing 3B vs lefties would be an upgrade.    Also Sanchez has had offensive years where his numbers would be a upgrade at 3B.  He is just not consistent with his offensive.  2021 is his walk year before FA.   He may be motivated to have a good year especially after being DFA and seeing his salary drop.

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15 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

I agree, I can name at least 10 guys that could be released and replaced easily. I'd like to see the O's part ways with Pedro Severino especially. I'd like to see Sisco start 100 games and see what he can do with regular ABs. 

I’d think that Severino has some trade value 

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On 11/8/2020 at 5:31 PM, wildcard said:

Wells, 24, is coming off a stellar year at AA.  Too tempting for some team even if he does not throw hard.   I don't want some team to take him, mess with him and possible return him after messing with him.

 

When is the last we could say THAT with a straight face?

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