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BohKnowsBmore

Could an uncertain economic situation for teams actually make Cobb more appealing this offseason?

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It's no secret that many teams' near-term economic circumstances are a bit up in the air at the moment, making budget decisions a bit more tricky. I think we have mostly all penciled in Means - Cobb - Kremer - Aiken in for our OD rotation, but I started thinking about whether a trade of Cobb might actually be MORE likely in the current environment. If the O's are willing to eat his 2021 salary in full (or nearly in full), he might be an appealing addition to a team who wants to solidify the middle/back-end of its rotation but doesn't want to commit an eight-digit salary to upgrade it's #4 spot. 

What level of prospect would another team be willing to part with for a free ($-wise) season of Cobb? Maybe something like an average organization's #8-10 prospect? Higher? Lower?

For reference, Cobb was worth 0.6 fWAR and 1.0 rWAR in 2020, so ~1.8 - 3.0 WAR over a full season.

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Looking at the FA starters and their projected salaries on MLBTR Cobb looks like he is worth about 1/5M.     I doubt the O's eat 10M.  Instead they probably wait until the trade deadline and hope Cobb has a good season so his price goes up.

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I get the thought, but as you noted, the Orioles would have to be willing to eat basically ALL of his salary and I don't know that the Orioles are going to be willing to do that unless the prospect coming back is really top-level and I don't think you will get that given the injury risk that Cobb carries.

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7 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I get the thought, but as you noted, the Orioles would have to be willing to eat basically ALL of his salary and I don't know that the Orioles are going to be willing to do that unless the prospect coming back is really top-level and I don't think you will get that given the injury risk that Cobb carries.

You could pay 100% and not get a quality prospect back.  Like was said earlier Cobb looks like a 1yr/5M signing on the FA market.

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On 11/9/2020 at 4:14 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

It's no secret that many teams' near-term economic circumstances are a bit up in the air at the moment, making budget decisions a bit more tricky. I think we have mostly all penciled in Means - Cobb - Kremer - Aiken in for our OD rotation, but I started thinking about whether a trade of Cobb might actually be MORE likely in the current environment. If the O's are willing to eat his 2021 salary in full (or nearly in full), he might be an appealing addition to a team who wants to solidify the middle/back-end of its rotation but doesn't want to commit an eight-digit salary to upgrade it's #4 spot. 

What level of prospect would another team be willing to part with for a free ($-wise) season of Cobb? Maybe something like an average organization's #8-10 prospect? Higher? Lower?

For reference, Cobb was worth 0.6 fWAR and 1.0 rWAR in 2020, so ~1.8 - 3.0 WAR over a full season.

No. I don’t think so. 

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On 11/9/2020 at 4:51 PM, wildcard said:

Looking at the FA starters and their projected salaries on MLBTR Cobb looks like he is worth about 1/5M.     I doubt the O's eat 10M.  Instead they probably wait until the trade deadline and hope Cobb has a good season so his price goes up.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

Not sure I agree. Who in the 1/$5M (or less) starter bucket had a better 2020 than Cobb? He's already had the positive reclamation year that most of those guys' contract estimates have built in re: uncertainty.

Based on recent performance, Garret Richards at 2/$16M seems like the better comparison. Different profiles, but a better combination of results / distance from lost season than any of the guys in the bucket you are suggesting. 

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I doubt there is a MLB GM dumb enough to trade us a legitimate prospect for Cobb. What did we give up for Bud Norris and Scott Feldman? Wait, don't answer that!

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I doubt there is a MLB GM dumb enough to trade us a legitimate prospect for Cobb. What did we give up for Bud Norris and Scott Feldman? Wait, don't answer that!

Much as I disliked the Norris trade I don't think he is a good comp for 2021 Cobb.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Much as I disliked the Norris trade I don't think he is a good comp for 2021 Cobb.

Contract status alone makes it a poor comparison. He was a 28-year-old pitcher with 2.5 years of control at the time of the trade from Houston to Baltimore.

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On 11/9/2020 at 4:51 PM, wildcard said:

Looking at the FA starters and their projected salaries on MLBTR Cobb looks like he is worth about 1/5M.     I doubt the O's eat 10M.  Instead they probably wait until the trade deadline and hope Cobb has a good season so his price goes up.

I think that's where the Orioles probably are with Cobb. Even though he was mediocre in 2020, i doubt he has much trade value, especially with his current contract and economic uncertainty around baseball. 

Probably makes sense to keep him around and see if he gets off to a hot start next year and gains some value for a team that is perhaps desperate for some starting pitching and may give up some #8-#12 level type of prospect for him. 

Of course, if the Orioles get any trade offer they may dump him like this did with Villar because of the contract. 

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48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think that's where the Orioles probably are with Cobb. Even though he was mediocre in 2020, i doubt he has much trade value, especially with his current contract and economic uncertainty around baseball. 

Probably makes sense to keep him around and see if he gets off to a hot start next year and gains some value for a team that is perhaps desperate for some starting pitching and may give up some #8-#12 level type of prospect for him. 

Of course, if the Orioles get any trade offer they may dump him like this did with Villar because of the contract. 

Not to go too far down the semantics rabbit hole, but I would argue he was better than mediocre in 2020, actually a bit above average for all SP. ERA+ of 106. WAA of 0.5.

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1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not to go too far down the semantics rabbit hole, but I would argue he was better than mediocre in 2020, actually a bit above average for all SP. ERA+ of 106. WAA of 0.5.

Just depends on your definition of mediocre I guess.  

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1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not to go too far down the semantics rabbit hole, but I would argue he was better than mediocre in 2020, actually a bit above average for all SP. ERA+ of 106. WAA of 0.5.

Fair enough.   I’d agree he was decent.  Of course, the season was so short he was unable to prove whether he can stay healthy over a full year.    To me that’s the big issue with Cobb.    

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