Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Sports Guy

Theo Epstein

Recommended Posts

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Spending more on those two is generally better than spending less.

I'm inclined to agree, but we don't know why all the money wasn't spent.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm inclined to agree, but we don't know why all the money wasn't spent.  

 

I agree that we don't, but the trend isn't good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree that we don't, but the trend isn't good.

Do we know how much they spent in the international draft relative to their budget.   Also in the amateur draft.     If I recall we were a few hundred thousand under what we could have spent before hitting any penalty in the amateur.    As for the international, they have definitely stepped up their efforts and their spending sine Elias and Perez came on board.    

As for the Angelos boys it's tough to judge because  the team is in rebuilding mode when it's typical to have a low payroll and 2) we are in uncharted waters with Covid-19 and all of the lost revenue from the 2020 season.     It certainly seems their intentions were to do things differently than their father and what most of us would consider the right way by investing in the amatuer end of the business to get a proper flow of talent coming up through the system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do we know how much they spent in the international draft relative to their budget.   Also in the amateur draft.     If I recall we were a few hundred thousand under what we could have spent before hitting any penalty in the amateur.    As for the international, they have definitely stepped up their efforts and their spending sine Elias and Perez came on board.    

As for the Angelos boys it's tough to judge because  the team is in rebuilding mode when it's typical to have a low payroll and 2) we are in uncharted waters with Covid-19 and all of the lost revenue from the 2020 season.     It certainly seems their intentions were to do things differently than their father and what most of us would consider the right way by investing in the amatuer end of the business to get a proper flow of talent coming up through the system.

Which was more than any other team this draft.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which was more than any other team this draft.

 

I feel you are making a mountain out of a molehill.    The team has a certain amount to spend on the draft.   They choose 6 guys believing that they can get them signed within that budget.   They do a good negotiating and sign all six but end up spending a quarter million dollars less than their budget.   To me that isn’t a problem.    As to international, they are still catching up to the other teams that had commitments from the big ticket guys before Elias and Perez were in our organization.    We knew it would take three years to fully ramp up here.   We made a lot of progress in year one even if we didn’t spend all our allotment because there weren’t enough good players around to spend it on.    Year two is reported to be better than year one but we haven’t seen the results because of the postponement of the signing date. To me we are moving in the right direction there and making excellent strides.    I am not going to judge success or constraints based on whether they spent every last dime.   

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I feel you are making a mountain out of a molehill.    The team has a certain amount to spend on the draft.   They choose 6 guys believing that they can get them signed within that budget.   They do a good negotiating and sign all six but end up spending a quarter million dollars less than their budget.   To me that isn’t a problem.    As to international, they are still catching up to the other teams that had commitments from the big ticket guys before Elias and Perez were in our organization.    We knew it would take three years to fully ramp up here.   We made a lot of progress in year one even if we didn’t spend all our allotment because there weren’t enough good players around to spend it on.    Year two is reported to be better than year one but we haven’t seen the results because of the postponement of the signing date. To me we are moving in the right direction there and making excellent strides.    I am not going to judge success or constraints based on whether they spent every last dime.   

Or Elias is given a budget that is less than the allotment allowed them and he makes draft decisions (going underslot in first round perhaps?) based on those constraints.

I'll accept that your scenario is possible, but I think mine is as well.

As to international, they managed to spend their full allotment the period before but they couldn't find enough players this period?   Did you see the Dodgers just signed a 16 year old that had ties to the Yankees?

 

I might very well be wrong about all of this, but I might be right and if I am it's going to be very hard for Elias to build a winner.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or Elias is given a budget that is less than the allotment allowed them and he makes draft decisions (going underslot in first round perhaps?) based on those constraints.

I'll accept that your scenario is possible, but I think mine is as well.

As to international, they managed to spend their full allotment the period before but they couldn't find enough players this period?   Did you see the Dodgers just signed a 16 year old that had ties to the Yankees?

 

I might very well be wrong about all of this, but I might be right and if I am it's going to be very hard for Elias to build a winner.

You're making progress.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or Elias is given a budget that is less than the allotment allowed them and he makes draft decisions (going underslot in first round perhaps?) based on those constraints.

I'll accept that your scenario is possible, but I think mine is as well.

As to international, they managed to spend their full allotment the period before but they couldn't find enough players this period?

The O’s only spent about $2 mm in the 2018-19 signing period — $1 mm by Duquette during the prime signing period (J2 and shortly thereafter) and $1 mm by Elias in the “leftovers” period.    They spent significantly more in 2019-20 but did not use their full allotment because the top players still were not available to them.    We don’t know the exact spending in the 2020-21 period because the signing date was postponed.   But it looks like the number will be higher (we’d reportedly spent $4.9 mm out of $6.48 mm allotted as of July 7) and we’ll have more guys in the $250k+ bonus range and maybe a couple in the $500k+ range.   That’ll be the end of the period where we were behind other teams two years ago and still feeling the consequences.   We should be at no disadvantage in the cycle after this one.   https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/07/with-international-signing-period-extended-can-os-take-advantage.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The O’s only spent about $2 mm in the 2018-19 signing period — $1 mm by Duquette during the prime signing period (J2 and shortly thereafter) and $1 mm by Elias in the “leftovers” period.    They spent significantly more in 2019-20 but did not use their full allotment because the top players still were not available to them.    We don’t know anything about the 2020-21 period because the signing date was postponed.   But it looks like the number will be higher and we’ll have more guys in the $250k+ bonus range and maybe a couple in the $500k+ range.   That’ll be the end of the period where we were behind other teams two years ago and still feeling the consequences.   We should be at no disadvantage in the cycle after this one.   

I am mixed up because of the changing dates.  Didn't Elias say they would not trade any slots his first full season?  I assumed he spent all the allotment if he didn't trade any slots.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One conspiracy theory dies and another one is born.   First, it was that the owners wouldn't let Elias truly implement his international signing plan.    That myth was obliterated.   Now we have some cap on draft spending.   Sure, it makes no sense.    Would the owners tell Elias that he needed to stay 200K or 300K under the maximum they had to spend?   Does that make sense?     First it was, Elias was not going to be able to spend on international amateurs.   Now that he has and he and Perez are proving that they are the real deal, it's no longer that they aren't players in the Latin market it's that they haven't been allowed to spend every available penny down there.   A broken clock is right twice a day but a broken record is just plain annoying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

One conspiracy theory dies and another one is born.   First, it was that the owners wouldn't let Elias truly implement his international signing plan.    That myth was obliterated.   Now we have some cap on draft spending.   Sure, it makes no sense.    Would the owners tell Elias that he needed to stay 200K or 300K under the maximum they had to spend?   Does that make sense?     First it was, Elias was not going to be able to spend on international amateurs.   Now that he has and he and Perez are proving that they are the real deal, it's no longer that they aren't players in the Latin market it's that they haven't been allowed to spend every available penny down there.   A broken clock is right twice a day but a broken record is just plain annoying.

If he isn't able to spend his full allotment than he isn't able to truly implement his international signing plan.

One leads directly to another.

As to why they might limit his spending, that's simple, it's their money.

We know the following.

Elias didn't spend all his allotment on the draft.

Elias didn't spend all his allotment on the International market.

According to the two coaches in question they were let go because of money.

The O's consolidated the ML pitching coach and director of pitching positions which is almost assuredly saving them money.

 

I can see cutting ML spending as close to the bone as possible when a team isn't in contention.  But the draft, the International market, and coaching are areas they should be spending on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1 Elias didn't spend all his allotment on the draft.

2 Elias didn't spend all his allotment on the International market.

Relative to the first point, We had about $250K that wasn't allotted but we also signed a bunch of non-drafted guys for $20 K so are we sure it wasn't actually spent? Relative to point 2, player's bonuses from some countries (Venezuela??) aren't reported due to safety concerns so we really don't know what was actually spent. You may be right but there is no way to actually know.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mr. Elias, we have a draft spending pool of $13,894 but you are not allowed to spend a penny over $13,697,30.     Don't ask us how we arrived at that figure!   Don't ask.   It's a conspiracy theory.   There is no need for you to know!    We just like to save.   $13,697.30.   No more than that!

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mr. Elias, we have a draft spending pool of $13,894 but you are not allowed to spend a penny over $13,697,30.     Don't ask us how we arrived at that figure!   Don't ask.   It's a conspiracy theory.   There is no need for you to know!    We just like to save.   $13,697.30.   No more than that!

Aren't they cutting coaches (according to the coaches) over a couple hundred K?

We know the O's left more unspent than any other team.  We know they went with a signability choice at 1-2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Santander played well, and his defense earned a GG finalist spot, though Gallo clearly beat him. Defense is important. As he learns the intimate details of RF at OPACY, his D can be expected to improve. I don’t think offense improves linearly: as he addresses his flaws-or doesn’t- he will either dramatically improve, or stay about the same. His BABIP was .248, which is below league average(?) and his K rate was only 15.6%. His walk rate is pretty low, which indicates he has a good eye and makes contact, so even if nothing changes, I’d expect better production when the hits stop finding so many gloves. He was worth.9 WAR in 60 games. I’d expect 2 or above if he plays 150 games. Hays’ bat is a bit more suspect, but it’s logical for him to come into his own as he faces more MLB-level pitching. But his defense is wonderful, and even if he isn’t hitting as well as he should, he’s likely better on offense than Mullins( unless Mullins himself has come into his own, and his 2020 is his new normal.) Either way, I’m not worried about OF production, so long as Mc and Mancini aren’t out there.
    • I also think .900 OPS is very optimistic for Santander, when you consider that his .890 last year was built on a .315 ISO.    That’s Chris Davis in his best seasons-type power.   There were only six major league qualifiers last year with a .315+ ISO, and five in 2019.   I think Santander has nice power but not at that level.   Anything over .200-.225 would be gravy.    
    • Hays needs to be able to stay healthy for a season or he might just end up being the Nolan Reimold of the 2020's Orioles. 
    • The Rule V thing is a wellspring for me of the bigger Santander enthusiasm. We'll see what kind of dance teams dance about stuff like...Gosh, Adley and Yusniel missed development so they can't break in for a long while yet, but Rule V is a similarly big obstacle (maybe worse if you buy in to the trope too early exposure to stuff in The Show can "ruin" a guy), so he's perhaps developmentally younger, and there's a fair bit of delta on the medium-term projection if Santander's 2020 performance can count as "baseball 24" even though he was 25.
    • Fair enough..Wildcard tends to have these completely over the top takes based off of SSS that just don’t make sense.     His use of the word should Deserves to be called out imo.  
    • My point has nothing to do with the relative merits of your prognostication, or of Wildcards. It has to do with you finding it necessary to be kinda nasty in criticizing Wildcard's speculation, and then immediately speculating on the same subject. I don't care whether you disagree with him. It just seemed a few notches over the top to me.
    • Should means that if Santander had a slash line of 280/325/500, hit 25 homers and drove in 85, Wildcard is saying he would be disappointed in that season. If I had to guess, 90+% of Orioles fans would sign up for that season for him right now.  That would likely exceed or meet most projections and predictions of him.  Yet Wildcard would say, he should have done better. Thats an over the top take to have on him. No one, outside of maybe Santanders family, would say he should do that and if he doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.     I am expecting him to be in line with what has done in his career with some slight improvements. I think it’s fair to have those expectations.  
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...