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Philip

Rule five Choices: other teams unprotected prospects

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What makes you so sure Ruiz has plateaued?    He’s young and inexperienced enough that improvement is a possibility.   I’m not saying it’s a certainty or even a likelihood, but it wouldn’t shock me if he showed some significant improvement like lots of players do at around his age and level of experience.   

A sub 750 OPs in almost 3000 at bats in the minors combined with very mediocre major league time and him getting ready to turn 27 doesn’t exactly instill confidence in me that he is about to break out.

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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

So, lets bring in a replacement level 3B and hope he improves but lets totally disregard the 3B we have of improving?  Yeah.  I got it.  Then when the replacement is just ok after 500-700 AB's we can replace him with another replacement level 3B.  If you can't be an all star within your first 500 ML AB's you gotta go!

Ruiz had two years, and as I said before, bad defense is pretty much bad defense. He hasn’t improved except for a brief dead cat bounce. Yes I think he should move on and we should try with somebody else and there’s nothing wrong with that.

No one here or anywhere thinks that he’s going to be part of our next winning team. Send him off and get someone else.

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30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A sub 750 OPs in almost 3000 at bats in the minors combined with very mediocre major league time and him getting ready to turn 27 doesn’t exactly instill confidence in me that he is about to break out.

I probably should have looked at his minor league stats before asking you that question.    I agree his upside is probably pretty limited.   

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I probably should have looked at his minor league stats before asking you that question.    I agree his upside is probably pretty limited.   

To be fair, I don’t think he was a bad gamble to take to see if he could discover something but I think we have seen enough.

I just  think it’s lazy to not find a better alternative than him.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

To be fair, I don’t think he was a bad gamble to take to see if he could discover something but I think we have seen enough.

I just  think it’s lazy to not find a better alternative than him.

Yes that’s exactly my point. There’s no reason not to try someone else. 

BTW, I remain a fan of Martin and I’m happy to let him have a chance to earn a spot in ST.

 

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

What makes you so sure Ruiz has plateaued?    He’s young and inexperienced enough that improvement is a possibility.   I’m not saying it’s a certainty or even a likelihood, but it wouldn’t shock me if he showed some significant improvement like lots of players do at around his age and level of experience.   

Ruiz is not a major league hitter

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26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Ruiz is not a major league hitter

Well, he is a hitter, and he plays in the major leagues, so that makes him a major league hitter.    

There are only 226 players who had 500+ PA the last two years, and Ruiz is one of them.   

Is he a good major league hitter?   No.   He ranked 203rd in wOBA of the 226.    Just above the bottom 10%.    

Let’s say I lowered the standard to 150 PA to capture a lot of guys who bounced in and out of the league.   Then he ranks 333 of 463.   Solidly above the fourth quartile.  

Bottom line, I wouldn’t expect him to be the worst hitter on any team, even though he’s not very good.  

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12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, he is a hitter, and he plays in the major leagues, so that makes him a major league hitter.    

There are only 226 players who had 500+ PA the last two years, and Ruiz is one of them.   

Is he a good major league hitter?   No.   He ranked 203rd in wOBA of the 226.    Just above the bottom 10%.    

Let’s say I lowered the standard to 150 PA to capture a lot of guys who bounced in and out of the league.   Then he ranks 333 of 463.   Solidly above the fourth quartile.  

Bottom line, I wouldn’t expect him to be the worst hitter on any team, even though he’s not very good.  

What’s the point ....My point is he’s a mediocre to bad player on a losing team. If you want to lose keep guys like him around. He has a OBP in the .280s. The Orioles need to stop wasting time with guys that can’t get on base. IMO you cut Ruiz to go with Nunez. You give Alberto one more year to prove he’s closer to the .329 OBP guy from 2019 than the .306 guy he was this year in 60 games.

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18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

To be fair, I don’t think he was a bad gamble to take to see if he could discover something but I think we have seen enough.

I just  think it’s lazy to not find a better alternative than him.

I do think 3B is one of the harder positions to find a good player unless you develop or trade for one because they rarely are found on the DFA or Rule 5 markets. Thankfully, with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo to a lesser extent in the Organization, there are two-three potential impact players who could end up there. 

In the meantime, I think they will probably end up giving a guy like Bannon an opportunity at some time next year if they don't find a better alternative to Ruiz this offseason or at the end of next spring through DFAs.

Ruiz is a guy that Elias had ties to from his Houston scouting days, and if Ruiz was more athletic and could play other infield positions and outfield he could have value as a utility guy, but he doesn't hit consistently enough to be a good everyday guy at the major league level.

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I remain pretty convinced that our pitching shows enough quantity and enough potential that we really don’t need anybody from outside: now is the time to see what our prospects can do, so throw them into the fray.

But we need better catching, even if the best catcher we have now will only be our future back up, in the infield we have a glaring gap at third. I appreciate the difficulty in finding a worthwhile third baseman, on the other hand it probably would not be difficult to find somebody who is appreciably better than Ruiz. I’d be happy to give Bannon a tryout. Good or bad, he is a potential part of the future, and we might as well find out as soon as possible what he can do. One of the potential 3B guys I mentioned was a closer and throws 93-94, so he might be a possibility as a two-way player( probably not but ya never know.) I’m pretty sure that those are Mike’s two priorities right now

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

I remain pretty convinced that our pitching shows enough quantity and enough potential that we really don’t need anybody from outside: now is the time to see what our prospects can do, so throw them into the fray.

Nuke, these big-league hitters are gonna light you up like a pinball machine for awhile - don't worry about it.  You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance.

I am hopeful the four AUG/SEP Team IP leaders will be Means, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez for the Lindor Cohort closing argument.

Baumann I've gotten to about the same place as I am with Adley/Yusniel, where a Week 2 debut would be thrilling.  I'll accept the adrenaline pushing the April pitches; if something's going to give, I want my 16 months done before October 2022.

 

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It's hard to say whether or not the Orioles will take a rule 5 pick. So many unknowns and a lack of recent data and observation. They pick 5th, and they would have to really like the talent to take one, I think. They have the room on the roster if they want one. It may be more likely they pick up a waiver claim, maybe even find a bargain free agent on a one year deal.

If you find an upgrade to Ruiz that makes sense, great. Do it. I see him staying for now because, as Tony said, a quality 3B is hard to come by. He's a LH bat on a team that is RH dominant, and his defense is better than what 2020 bared. Also, Valaika might get consideration for more time at 3B. I am curious what he would produce with regular playing time there, instead of being at a different position each day. Fangraphs has his 2020 season valued at $1.9 million, so his arbitration estimate of $1.1 is probably going to be seen as reasonable. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pat-valaika/14885/stats#standard

 

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