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wildcard

Salary Arbitration makes O's infield uncertain

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The non tender date is December 2nd.  8 days away.   It may provide insight into what the O's infield will look like is 2021.

The O's have 7 salary arbitration eligible players.   Mancini, Sanchez, Alberto, Santander, Severino, Valaika and Armstrong.

Safe:   Mancini and Santander will be offered arbitration.   Elias does not have to negotiate their contracts before Dec 2nd.

Worth the money:  Armstrong has projections between 700k and 1m.  He is probably worth the money so Elias probably offers him arbitration which will have little impact of the payroll.

Elias needs to make decisions  on whether to sign these players or non tender them by December 2nd:

Sanchez:  Cots Contracts projects him at 4M.  That is probably too rich for the O's.  His Gold Glove would be a defensive upgrade at 2B and a backup at SS.   He can also play 3B.  His projected production is in the 660 OPS range.  So it would be a defense over offense signing.   Sanchez made 4.6m in 2019 but was non tendered to avoid arbitration by the White Sox prior to the 2020 season.  With Iglesias a 3.5m,  Elias probably wants a salary below that for Sanchez.   Its probably sign by Dec 2nd or be non tendered is my guess.  Iglesias and Sanchez could be quite a keystone pair if he signs.

Alberto:  Projects to be close to a  400 OBP and a 900 OPS vs lefties in a platoon.   He has been in the low 600s OPS vs righties.  His defense is average at 2B and 3B.   MLBTR projects him somewhere between 2.3m and 4.1m.  Elias will not want to go to arbitration with him.   He will have to agree to something close to the low end of this range to stay.   My guess is it has to happen by Dec 2nd or he will be non tendered.

Severino:   The O's would probably like to keep him until Rutschman is ready.   MLBTR projects his salary to be between   1.4m and 2.3m.  The O's would probably be fine with something on the lower end of that range.  Wynns has been kept on the 40 man roster in case they can not agree.   My guess is he has to sign before December 2nd or be non tendered.  

  Valaika:   Raised his value last year with a 791 OPS.  The improvement is probably because he played almost everyday. That was  at multiple positions.   He probably will not be needed in the outfield or at 1B this coming season.  His best position is 2B but he can play SS or 3B.  MLBTR projects him for a salary between 1.1m to 1.9m.   O's would probably like to see if he can duplicate his OPS in 2021 and would be fine with something on the lower end of that range.   He probably has to be signed by Dec 2nd.  

Depending on how this works out and what Elias sees on the waiver wire will determine next seasons infield.  Ruiz will also come to compete for a spot in ST if he is able to stay on the roster throughout he off season.  

JMO..... What do you think?

 

 

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I think not offering these guys arbitration will be very unpopular to the average fan and viewed as cheap.

 

who cares about Sanchez who is a utility player at best due to his bat. I’d like to see Alberto return but I’d be okay with Valaika as the everyday starter at. 2B.

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45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the Os should make some trades and get higher upside players and get rid of a lot of these guys.

You really think there are teams out there that want to take on these guys and go to arbitration with them?

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9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You really think there are teams out there that want to take on these guys and go to arbitration with them?

Who said anything about teams taking on these players?

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I cannot imagine how Cot’s projects Sanchez at $4 mm.   We’re talking about a guy who was non-tendered in 2019, was signed to a minor league deal by the Giants and later released, then was signed to a minor league contract by the White Sox and released again.    If the O’s offer him any kind of major league deal he should jump at it.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the Os should make some trades and get higher upside players and get rid of a lot of these guys.

I agree that most of these guys are completely replaceable...but it would likely be trading better players than these to get players that can probably be picked up for nothing.   Not sure what or who you think the Os should trade.

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39 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree that most of these guys are completely replaceable...but it would likely be trading better players than these to get players that can probably be picked up for nothing.   Not sure what or who you think the Os should trade.

There are plenty of blocked, ML ready prospects that could/should be available in trades.

We have plenty of MiL depth to pull off a deal or 2 for these types of players.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are plenty of blocked, ML ready prospects that could/should be available in trades.

We have plenty of MiL depth to pull off a deal or 2 for these types of players.

I doubt Elias trades away minor league prospects at this point.   My guess is that Elias' preferred trading method would be to trade players approaching free agency for younger players.  That will take a while to develop.  JMO.

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12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are plenty of blocked, ML ready prospects that could/should be available in trades.

We have plenty of MiL depth to pull off a deal or 2 for these types of players.

 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I doubt Elias trades away minor league prospects at this point.   My guess is that Elias' preferred trading method would be to trade players approaching free agency for younger players.  That will take a while to develop.  JMO.

Don’t necessarily disagree with this but the depth could become a problem.  The adage that you can’t have too much depth is factually wrong.

At some point, you do reach that point and you risk losing players for nothing.  

So, Elias better start thinking about trading some of the depth and if he can do it for cost controlled talent, it makes sense to do so.  
 

I also think they should offer Santander in a deal as well..there are enough teams looking for OF help where something likely could be worked out there as well.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t necessarily disagree with this but the depth could become a problem.  The adage that you can’t have too much depth is factually wrong.

At some point, you do reach that point and you risk losing players for nothing.  

So, Elias better start thinking about trading some of the depth and if he can do it for cost controlled talent, it makes sense to do so.  
 

I also think they should offer Santander in a deal as well..there are enough teams looking for OF help where something likely could be worked out there as well.

I agree with Mountcastle in Left, they should trade Santander if they believe Diaz and Stewart can replace his production. And if they're willing to call up Rutschman in 2021 they could look to trade Severino as well.

They definitely have options to flip some guys for positions of need.

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3 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I agree with Mountcastle in Left, they should trade Santander if they believe Diaz and Stewart can replace his production. And if they're willing to call up Rutschman in 2021 they could look to trade Severino as well.

They definitely have options to flip some guys for positions of need.

DJ Stewart isn't any good

We don't know if Diaz is any good

Santander looks like he will be a good player who is enjoyable to watch who will be around for the next 4 seasons if we want him.

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3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

DJ Stewart isn't any good

We don't know if Diaz is any good

Santander looks like he will be a good player who is enjoyable to watch who will be around for the next 4 seasons if we want him.

Yeah there's some risk involved but I think if you can get a 3B or SS as part of a package for Santander it would be worth it since they have very little depth at those positions. 

Plus they have to see what Diaz has eventually.

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