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wildcard

Salary Arbitration makes O's infield uncertain

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think its probably a year early for that.  I fully expect Elias to follow the Tampa model.  They traded Archer for a couple of really good prospects because Archer was getting expensive.  Now they are floating Snell to see if they can do the same thing.

I don't think Elias offers Santander of long term deal.  I think when Kjerstad is ready in a year or two Elias trades Santander for good prospects.

The answer to the infield is in the minors most likely.   Henderson and Westburg will probably be promoted aggressively.   Not stay at levels very long if they are doing well.

We saw Elias slow round Mountcastle's promotion.  That was mainly not use his service time until the O's had more of their core in or close to the majors.  When Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall are ready for the majors, I don't see other prospects getting slow rounded.  They will be promoted more aggressively to get as many talented players in the majors while those three's window is open.  Hopefully for 5 or 6 years.

JMO

 

 

I think that’s an excellent theory and I think that’s an excellent process. Never keep an excellent player and his last two years of arbitration. You get three cheap years and one so so year, and then you trade them for prospects and start the process over again. Having said that, I’m not sure that Santandar will be THAT Good. He may end up being worth more to us to keep than to trade, but either way, I think an extension for any of our guys is unwise.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I think people fell a little too far in love with Santander’s 2020 performance over 37 games.   I seriously doubt he’s going to post a .314 ISO on a regular basis as he did in his short stint this year.    It is probably fair to suggest that he and Nunez are similar offensive players.    

Still, I think you underestimate the difference between being a solid defensive corner OF and being a DH who is a very poor defender at 1B/3B.    
 

No, I’m really not.

I understand that Santander is the better and more valuable player but offensively, they are basically the same.  Yet people act like Nunez brings nothing to the table offensively.  They say he doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for a good average and doesn’t provide a lot on the bases..that’s the same profile for Santander except he walks even less.

Sure he can field better but since DH is a position you have to fill, that really doesn’t matter.  The question isn’t which would you rather have.  You can have them both with no issues.  Just don’t sit there and tell me that Santander is some great player and Nunez is nothing.  That’s just bs.

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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m really not.

I understand that Santander is the better and more valuable player but offensively, they are basically the same.  Yet people act like Nunez brings nothing to the table offensively.  They say he doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for a good average and doesn’t provide a lot on the bases..that’s the same profile for Santander except he walks even less.

Sure he can field better but since DH is a position you have to fill, that really doesn’t matter.  The question isn’t which would you rather have.  You can have them both with no issues.  Just don’t sit there and tell me that Santander is some great player and Nunez is nothing.  That’s just bs.

I know some of these comments aren’t directed at me.    I do think Nunez has some offensive value as he hits now, and as I said before may even have some offensive upside beyond what he’s gone so far.  

I happen to think WAR does a very good job of evaluating what Nunez is worth.  fWAR has him at 0.6 for 2019, 0.3 for 37% of a full season in 2020 (so call it 0.8 over a full year).    rWAR has him at 0.4 last year, 0.4 this year (so call it 1.1 over a full season).   So overall, he’s about a .5-1.0 WAR player.    That’s not nothing.   I also agree with you that $2 mm is not too much to pay for such a player.    It just depends on the team’s situation.   If Elias feels he’s not worth that given the other alternatives for this team, I’m fine with that.   
 

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know some of these comments aren’t directed at me.    I do think Nunez has some offensive value as he hits now, and as I said before may even have some offensive upside beyond what he’s gone so far.  

I happen to think WAR does a very good job of evaluating what Nunez is worth.  fWAR has him at 0.6 for 2019, 0.3 for 37% of a full season in 2020 (so call it 0.8 over a full year).    rWAR has him at 0.4 last year, 0.4 this year (so call it 1.1 over a full season).   So overall, he’s about a .5-1.0 WAR player.    That’s not nothing.   I also agree with you that $2 mm is not too much to pay for such a player.    It just depends on the team’s situation.   If Elias feels he’s not worth that given the other alternatives for this team, I’m fine with that.   
 

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

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https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/11/now-on-the-40-man-rylan-bannon-readies-for-run-at-the-roster.html?fbclid=IwAR1sGjZZiJhTrUtoSt_ZFnr3WEmGjkrOyOxE1QU_Pv0AqQ4R9qqLuh3_y-c

FWIW, Bannon says he worked "a ton" at 2B in instructs last month.  Minor league career 3B games have about 2-to-1 edge on 2B games.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

This isn't the same argument or it isn't to me.  But I think if the Orioles throw Nunez away because they don't want or can't afford to spend 2 MILLION dollars, then I agree with you.  I just think it is much more likely that he is a fair DH but not much else and the O's have several other guys that are going to be getting those DH ab's.  

I worry more about him taking a step forward to another level.  I also believe that if Elias shared my view he would be on the team because 2 mil would be cheap.  The team dropped 3.5 mil on Iglesias.  

I think they will spend, but I think they will also look for ways to eliminate redundancy.  

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The last sentence is the argument for me.

I don’t believe Elias feels that way.  I think if the team wasn’t being cheap, he keeps Nunez.  His salary is nothing.  I think he was directed to cut costs and that he figured he could cut costs with Nunez since we have other guys we can use.

Elias can play it up publicly with the roster management angle because it sounds good..the reality is the team is being cheap.

Gee whiz!  So much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth over DFA'ing of a journeyman (at best) DH.  

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If they keep the expanded roster size then that really de-values position players. You can platoon your way through a season like the Dodgers and Rays did. 
 

I think Alberto is gone. The Sanchez situation is a tough one to predict. I think we keep Valaika, and he could get lots of ABs at 3B and 2B. 

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It will be a very interesting  day this week on how many guys get non tendered and not just the Orioles.  Lots of reports about how much teams lost and they expect many players to hit free agency after their arbitration is declined.  This class is rather weak in terms of top talent but the market could get flooded with players  and then add in the uncertainty of the start of the season could make off season fun to watch.  

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On 11/26/2020 at 9:37 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

If they keep the expanded roster size then that really de-values position players. You can platoon your way through a season like the Dodgers and Rays did. 
 

I think Alberto is gone. The Sanchez situation is a tough one to predict. I think we keep Valaika, and he could get lots of ABs at 3B and 2B. 

Doesn’t Alberto become more valuable in a world of platooning all over the field?

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Lets look at both Santander and Nunez offensively at 26 years old

Season WOBA WOBACON Barrel % Hard Hit % Exit Velo XBA XSLG XWOBA XWOBACON
Renato Nunez .341 .453 12.1 36.4 86.3 .228 .433 .301 .388
Anthony Santander .358 .404 10.2 36.7 88.6 .286 .510 .338 .378
MLB AVG .317 .370 6.4 34.9 88.3 .250 .414 .321 .376

They are not significantly different though Santander is ahead in the most important OBA and especially XWOBA categories. 

The key here is defensively value and cost. Santander is a switch hitting plus defensive RFer while Nunez is a DH. If Nunez played any position effectively, he'd be offered arbitration. Santander's issues have been staying healthy and he doesn't walk much, but then again, he doesn't strike out all that much either.

Overall, Santander is a more valuable player than Nunez and this is coming from a guy who think Nunez is worth more than obviously the rest of baseball does.

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8 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Then what makes you think another team would give us value for him?

Because he’s a good player on a cheap contract for a while.

On OH however, there are some that think he should be in the elite category in 2021.  That’s pretty crazy to me.

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8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Lets look at both Santander and Nunez offensively at 26 years old

Season WOBA WOBACON Barrel % Hard Hit % Exit Velo XBA XSLG XWOBA XWOBACON
Renato Nunez .341 .453 12.1 36.4 86.3 .228 .433 .301 .388
Anthony Santander .358 .404 10.2 36.7 88.6 .286 .510 .338 .378
MLB AVG .317 .370 6.4 34.9 88.3 .250 .414 .321 .376

They are not significantly different though Santander is ahead in the most important OBA and especially XWOBA categories. 

The key here is defensively value and cost. Santander is a switch hitting plus defensive RFer while Nunez is a DH. If Nunez played any position effectively, he'd be offered arbitration. Santander's issues have been staying healthy and he doesn't walk much, but then again, he doesn't strike out all that much either.

Overall, Santander is a more valuable player than Nunez and this is coming from a guy who think Nunez is worth more than obviously the rest of baseball does.

Yes, Santander is definitely the more valuable all around player.

The issue I have, which you pointed out here, is that there is very little offensive difference between the 2.  However, when reading posts on here, you have people who basically think Santander is an AS with the bat and that Nunez is a nothing with the bat.  That’s where I have an issue.

Obviously you wouldn’t trade Nunez for Santander..but that isn’t and never has been the discussion.

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So I don’t pretend to know the Orioles plan. But, they have exposed some interesting players to the rule 5 draft. If they were going to nontender any combination of Alberto, Sanchez, Valaika, and or Armstrong it seems like they hold each protected another guy or two from the rule 5 by doing it for the protection date last week.

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