Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
wildcard

Mayo: “I would be surprised if (Adley) is not in the big leagues in 2021."

Recommended Posts

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have not seen or heard the team say anything.   Its others projecting.

Sure..but Elias isn’t going to come out and say that either.  
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yup.    I’ve still got PWSD (post-Wieters stress disorder).   Hoping for great things but no amount of hype will convince me that (1) he’s a sure-fire above average major leaguer, or (2) that he’s already ready for the majors.    He will have to prove it.   

That said, I do dream about it....
 

So you are an Elvis Presley kind of guy:   A little less conversation and a lot more action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im obviously in the minority here but i liked Wieters.  Did he live up to the hype? No.  How many truly do?  Was he a damned good catcher?  Yes, i value switch-hitting good defensive catchers with some pop.  Could he run?  I could run about the same but you can't have everything, that position wears a body down. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Chuck A said:

Im obviously in the minority here but i liked Wieters.  Did he live up to the hype? No.  How many truly do?  Was he a damned good catcher?  Yes, i value switch-hitting good defensive catchers with some pop.  Could he run?  I could run about the same but you can't have everything, that position wears a body down. 

You are not in the minority.   Most of us liked Wieters.    He was an above average major leaguer there for several years.    He just wasn’t the demi-god he was built up to be.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they’ll give him a full year in the minors with stops in AA/AAA. Maybe a taste of the MLB for 5-10 games. Severino is here till the deadline or next offseason, unless someone offers us a good trade. Hopefully, Severino and Sisco, make the most of these 2021 ABs and fetch us some trade value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think they’ll give him a full year in the minors with stops in AA/AAA. Maybe a taste of the MLB for 5-10 games. Severino is here till the deadline or next offseason, unless someone offers us a good trade. Hopefully, Severino and Sisco, make the most of these 2021 ABs and fetch us some trade value. 

I dunno.  In holidays/daydream mode, I'm still navel gazing for a Severino non-tender as a leading indicator of Week 2 Adley.

Clubs are a couple weeks away from having to show their non-tender cards as the revenue ripples start floating out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I dunno.  In holidays/daydream mode, I'm still navel gazing for a Severino non-tender as a leading indicator of Week 2 Adley.

Clubs are a couple weeks away from having to show their non-tender cards as the revenue ripples start floating out.

Dec 2nd is a week away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think they’ll give him a full year in the minors with stops in AA/AAA. Maybe a taste of the MLB for 5-10 games.

I’d be totally against this approach.   It’s the worst of all worlds: get his service clock running in 2021 but get very little major league experience out of it.    For me, I’d like him up by July or not at all.    

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think they’ll give him a full year in the minors with stops in AA/AAA. Maybe a taste of the MLB for 5-10 games. Severino is here till the deadline or next offseason, unless someone offers us a good trade. Hopefully, Severino and Sisco, make the most of these 2021 ABs and fetch us some trade value. 

It’s not even the ABs, in my mind. If severino holds serve with his bat and shows that he’s cleaned up his defense, someone will be interested at the deadline. There’s pretty much always a playoff contender willing to give value for a quality second catcher it seems. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Dec 2nd is a week away.

Thanks for the detail - I guess we'll see by Wednesday if turkeys or MLB payrolls are picked more bare.

Happy Thanksgiving to all here at OH!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/25/2020 at 1:18 PM, Chuck A said:

Im obviously in the minority here but i liked Wieters.  Did he live up to the hype? No.  How many truly do?  Was he a damned good catcher?  Yes, i value switch-hitting good defensive catchers with some pop.  Could he run?  I could run about the same but you can't have everything, that position wears a body down. 

Wieters was fine.  I was hard on him at times but from a defensive perspective he was great.  It would seem like he'd have to have a hot September to reach the stats that he would each year, but whatever.  His cold spells were abysmal but when he was hot he was a joy to watch. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/25/2020 at 8:05 AM, Moose Milligan said:

you'd think we'd have learned after the whole Switch Hitting Jesus thing

Pffffft, everybody knows that Adley is the REAL Switch-Hitting Jesus! 😉

(Also, shame on you for reminding me of Anita Marks' existence)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wieters was fine.  I was hard on him at times but from a defensive perspective he was great.  It would seem like he'd have to have a hot September to reach the stats that he would each year, but whatever.  His cold spells were abysmal but when he was hot he was a joy to watch. 

Getting tagged as “Mauer with Power” made an impossible standard for Wieters to live up to before his first game. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Getting tagged as “Mauer with Power” made an impossible standard for Wieters to live up to before his first game. 

I think I first read the “Mauer with Power” line in Sports Illustrated’s Spring 2010 baseball issue, the year after Wieters debuted.  But the article said he’d been called that in the past, before Mauer hit 28 homers in 2009.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault.si.com/.amp/vault/2010/03/15/the-total-package-rare-bird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Just for a little context here, the Orioles' team OPS was .725 in 2019 and .750 last year.   So, these systems are projecting a step back.
    • Bringing back a tradition I've skipped the last few years.    I've collected the Orioles players' OPS projections from various projection systems and put them on the spreadsheet below.    Then I made my own assumptions about how the plate appearances will be allocated, using an assumption of 6200 PA total, and used those to come up with a team projected OPS.   As you'll see, the projected team OPS ranges from a low of .705 (THE BAT) to a high of .726 (ZiPS).     A few of these projection systems are new to me: ATC, THE BAT, and THE BAT X.   They are all published on Fangraphs, along with ZiPS and Steamer.   Marcel is published on BB-Ref, and PECOTA is only available to BP members but I was able to get it from an anonymous source (he knows who he is!).   I may try to add a few others later. If anyone wants to post his/her own OPS projections for these 18 players, I'll be happy to plug them in and let everyone know what team OPS results, based on my PA assumptions.    There are several players who I expect will get more PA than I listed if they are healthy all year, but I've hedged a little for injury risk.  If anyone thinks I'm wildly off in how I allocated the playing time, please feel free to comment! Name PA PECOTA ZiPS Steamer ATC THE BAT THEBATX Marcel Severino 350 0.704 0.694 0.708 0.701 0.703 0.705 0.699 Sisco 200 0.714 0.725 0.696 0.717 0.711 0.713 0.707 Rutschman 150 0.603 0.664 0.674 0.691 0.705 0.705 0.674 Mancini 550 0.793 0.823 0.791 0.801 0.798 0.813 0.806 Davis 150 0.632 0.565 0.603 0.594 0.611 0.608 0.576 Sanchez 425 0.661 0.694 0.667 0.683 0.645 0.672 0.672 Valaika 325 0.706 0.783 0.677 0.681 0.658 0.663 0.686 Jones 100 0.639 0.597 0.645 0.642 0.646 0.645 0.758 Ruiz 500 0.704 0.704 0.727 0.701 0.685 0.672 0.706 Bannon 175 0.673 0.681 0.694 0.693 0.692 0.691 0.687 Galvis 600 0.713 0.682 0.672 0.692 0.684 0.677 0.708 Mountcastle 550 0.741 0.798 0.788 0.782 0.759 0.755 0.802 Hays 450 0.755 0.747 0.741 0.731 0.713 0.711 0.771 Mullins 300 0.637 0.686 0.689 0.666 0.651 0.659 0.681 Santander 550 0.769 0.796 0.784 0.804 0.781 0.791 0.769 Stewart 175 0.719 0.748 0.764 0.762 0.729 0.735 0.753 Diaz 150 0.698 0.731 0.721 0.716 0.701 0.699 0.711 Others 500 0.649 0.649 0.649 0.649 0.649 0.649 0.649 TOTAL 6200 0.709 0.726 0.716 0.718 0.705 0.708 0.722  
    • Yeah but outside of one good season starting he spent the bulk of his career as a lefty specialist. He was seen as close to MLB ready when he was drafted too. Just kind of hoping for more when your picked #4. 
    • We do get to see about half the Next Good Team's lineup while waiting for the Baysox.   Last year with Hanser the Orioles truly lapped the field at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; 29 teams were between 27% and 34%, the Orioles were 37%.   I looked at August/September individually, and also the last 10 years team-wise, through AJ and Buck's Contact to Damage ratio years.   All numbers from FG. August 2020 - 164 qualified batters (O-Swing% Rank): Severino 74th, Ruiz 111th, Nunez 153rd, Santander 155th, Alberto 164th September 2020 - 161 qualified Stewart 74th, Ruiz 87th, Mullins 111th, Mountcastle 150th (filling Santander's shoes rather precisely in the Bottom 10%), Alberto 161st In 2020, the Best 3 Teams at this were LAD/NYY/SDP, the Worst BOS/DET/BAL Team-wise for 2011-2020, the Orioles annual rank among the 30 clubs: 23rd, 23rd, 23rd, 27th, 29th, 25th, 28th, 27th, 24th, 30th.    Somewhat astonishingly, for the combined 2011-2020 period, one other team did out-hack the Orioles.    The Best 5 for the last decade were OAK/CLE/LAD/NYY/TB, the Worst 5 were COL/DET/KCR/BAL/CHW.   We do at least have a ballpark where a Walk isn't as valuable as in the Oakland Coliseum. Which pitches to swing at, and how well you can hit them, there's a lot of nuance, but for the most part not swinging at balls is plainer.   I think I've only heard Jim Palmer say, "You throw enough strikes to make them swing at balls" about 833 times.
    • I was thinking that Sanchez could backup SS according what Elias hinted when Sanchez was signed.  But Hyde just said in the last few days that he will play 2B and may get some time at 3B.  No mention of SS. As long as Martin is projected to begin the season at AAA, I guess the only other alternative to Valaika in camp is Mejias-Brean.  Of course, Elias could bring in someone else.  
    • Shorter answer, who doesn't have something to prove?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...