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What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

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Anthony Santander has a career slash line of .252/.292/.467.   He was selected in the Rule 5 draft after playing no higher than A+ and struggled during his Rule 5 period split between 2017-18 due to injuries.    He has fared much better since getting called up in 2019, and in 2020 slashed .261/.315/.575.   His season ended prematurely with an oblique injury.

Austin Hays has a career slash line of .272/.320/.424, comprised of a shaky 2017 debut after being promoted from AA, a strong 2019 performance after a less-inspiring minor league season, and then a .279/.328/.393 performance in a somewhat larger sample this year.   He’s had trouble staying healthy the last three seasons, missing time this year with a fractured rib.

So what do we get out of these two next year, either in terms of availability or performance?

I will leave the availability issue to the baseball gods.    Neither player has a single, chronic injury, and I don’t know that they have a greater chance of future injury than any other player.    Hays might, due to his aggressive style of play in the outfield.   But, I’m not going to speculate on that.   

Hays, I think, has considerably more power than he showed in 2020.    I think his BA and OBP from  2020 (.279/.328) are about what I expect from him, but add 30-50 points of SLG.   So that would put his OPS in the .755-.780 range in 2021.   For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him at .255/.303/.442.   I think those are low on BA/OBP and maybe aggressive on ISO.

Santander is sort of the opposite - his ISO of .314 last year does not seem sustainable.    Again I think his BA and OBP from last season are pretty realistic.    Put me down for .775-.800 for him, with a little lower BA/OBP than Hays but a bit more power.   Steamer has him at .262/.312/.479, which looks about right to me.    

if we could get that rate of production and 900+ PA from them, I’d be very happy.   

 

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Santander will play 2021 at 26 year old.  Still improving.  He has an 890 OPS in 2020.    He will be surrounded with good hitters with Mancini and Mountcastle.   I think he should hit 30 homers, 100 RBI and a 900 OPS in 550 at bats.

Hays will play 2021 at 25.  Still improving.  790 OPS in 2021.  420 at bats.

 

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Santander will play 2021 at 26 year old.  Still improving.  He has an 890 OPS in 2020.    He will be surrounded with good hitters with Mancini and Mountcastle.   I think he should hit 30 homers, 100 RBI and a 900 OPS in 550 at bats.

Hays will play 2021 at 25.  Still improving.  790 OPS in 2021.  420 at bats.

 

So?

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I think Santander's just holding down RF until Kjerstad is ready. Maybe he'll produce enough to have some trade value in the future. Hays at least plays a premium position, and the O's dont have a major prospect waiting to step in. I've read Vavra is getting looks in CF so that's something to keep an eye on next year. I think both are capable as everyday players,  but solid defense is probably what keeps them in the lineup. 

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56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander will play 2021 at 26 year old.  Still improving.  He has an 890 OPS in 2020.    He will be surrounded with good hitters with Mancini and Mountcastle.   I think he should hit 30 homers, 100 RBI and a 900 OPS in 550 at bats.

Hays will play 2021 at 25.  Still improving.  790 OPS in 2021.  420 at bats.

 

SHOULD?  Seriously?  Basically, you are saying he SHOULD be an MVP candidate.  

This is exact type of overrating of Santander I have said.  The idea that you think he is a definite AS and one of the top 15-20 hitters in the league is way over the top.

If you want to say I think he has another gear and the potential to do that, thats fine.  I disagree but ok.  But saying he SHOULD is just wow.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I would expect something like 260/315/475 for Santander and Hays.

Expect? Seriously?

 

I would expect an MVP candidate.

 

Expect?

 

Wow.

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5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Expect? Seriously?

 

I would expect an MVP candidate.

 

Expect?

 

Wow.

Somewhere I am assuming you have a point to this but who knows?

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Somewhere I am assuming you have a point to this but who knows?

Would have thought the ironic comparison of the quoted post, and the post before it would be obvious

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3 minutes ago, owknows said:

Would have thought the ironic comparison of the quoted post, and the post before it would be obvious

I mean I got that but saying I expect a player to be what they have been in their careers and saying the same person SHoULD be one of the best hitters in the league are completely different.

I realize it was an attempt at being witty but it wasn’t a good one.  
 

 

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean I got that but saying I expect a player to be what they have been in their careers and saying the same person SHoULD be one of the best hitters in the league are completely different.

I realize it was an attempt at being witty but it wasn’t a good one.  
 

Translation: I realize it was an attempt at being witty, but I didn't like it.

 

"should be" and "expect" are both speculative statements.

Neither really required any smarmy condemnation.

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Just now, owknows said:

Translation: I realize it was an attempt at being witty, but I didn't like it.

 

"should be" and "expect" are both speculative statements.

Neither really required any smarmy condemnation.

 

Should means that if Santander had a slash line of 280/325/500, hit 25 homers and drove in 85, Wildcard is saying he would be disappointed in that season.

If I had to guess, 90+% of Orioles fans would sign up for that season for him right now.  That would likely exceed or meet most projections and predictions of him.  Yet Wildcard would say, he should have done better.

Thats an over the top take to have on him. No one, outside of maybe Santanders family, would say he should do that and if he doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.  
 

I am expecting him to be in line with what has done in his career with some slight improvements. I think it’s fair to have those expectations.  

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Should means that if Santander had a slash line of 280/325/500, hit 25 homers and drove in 85, Wildcard is saying he would be disappointed in that season.

If I had to guess, 90+% of Orioles fans would sign up for that season for him right now.  That would likely exceed or meet most projections and predictions of him.  Yet Wildcard would say, he should have done better.

Thats an over the top take to have on him. No one, outside of maybe Santanders family, would say he should do that and if he doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.  
 

I am expecting him to be in line with what has done in his career with some slight improvements. I think it’s fair to have those expectations.  

My point has nothing to do with the relative merits of your prognostication, or of Wildcards.

It has to do with you finding it necessary to be kinda nasty in criticizing Wildcard's speculation, and then immediately speculating on the same subject.

I don't care whether you disagree with him. It just seemed a few notches over the top to me.

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2 minutes ago, owknows said:

My point has nothing to do with the relative merits of your prognostication, or of Wildcards.

It has to do with you finding it necessary to be kinda nasty in criticizing Wildcard's speculation, and then immediately speculating on the same subject.

I don't care whether you disagree with him. It just seemed a few notches over the top to me.

Fair enough..Wildcard tends to have these completely over the top takes based off of SSS that just don’t make sense.  
 

His use of the word should Deserves to be called out imo.  

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The Rule V thing is a wellspring for me of the bigger Santander enthusiasm.

We'll see what kind of dance teams dance about stuff like...Gosh, Adley and Yusniel missed development so they can't break in for a long while yet, but Rule V is a similarly big obstacle (maybe worse if you buy in to the trope too early exposure to stuff in The Show can "ruin" a guy), so he's perhaps developmentally younger, and there's a fair bit of delta on the medium-term projection if Santander's 2020 performance can count as "baseball 24" even though he was 25.

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