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Frobby

What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

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17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Wow.   I’d hate to see what you’d predict if you did mean to be a downer.  

I guess I just see them both guys that get hurt pretty regularly and I've seen enough of those guys who continue to be guys who get hurt pretty regularly. I hope that I am wrong because they both could be solid players who can be used in a trade or make other prospects/players available to be used. 

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

By SG II do you mean when he rejoined the community after being banned with his original account or just when he came back after being away?

I just know that he was gone for years.  The SG II was just referencing him since he returned. 

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33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im unclear to what this post is supposed to mean in relation to the post you quoted.

I’m saying that even if they had started to rebuild process sooner, they would not have accomplished anything, because of the fundamental problems within the organization. If you don’t upgrade your analysis, for instance, you’re going to be making bad decisions about player acquisition. 
In order for any rebuild to be affective, the organization has to be improved, and that is the focal point of Elias’s work at this time.

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6 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m saying that even if they had started to rebuild process sooner, they would not have accomplished anything, because of the fundamental problems within the organization. If you don’t upgrade your analysis, for instance, you’re going to be making bad decisions about player acquisition. 
In order for any rebuild to be affective, the organization has to be improved, and that is the focal point of Elias’s work at this time.

Ok..there is truth in this but had they traded Brach, Britton and Manny earlier (like after 2016), the talent they would have gotten back would have been immense.  Now, that doesn’t mean the develop, stay healthy, etc...but had they done that, the team would be back to contending or, at the very least, on the cusp of it.

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41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok..there is truth in this but had they traded Brach, Britton and Manny earlier (like after 2016), the talent they would have gotten back would have been immense.  Now, that doesn’t mean the develop, stay healthy, etc...but had they done that, the team would be back to contending or, at the very least, on the cusp of it.

Oh I certainly agree that they should’ve traded them sooner, one of the problems of the organization is blindness. But if they had traded them sooner, there’s no guarantee, because of the problem in the organization with analysis, that the return would’ve been any good.

also, even a good return would not address the problems in the organization. We need to establish the conveyor belt. Guys come in they produce, they are traded in a timely manner and then the next guy comes up the belt. In order to do that you have to have a lot of things that did not exist in the previous organization. They could not exist in the previous organization because the mechanisms that produced them did not exist, so long term success would be impossible.

The Rays do much with very little, but they aren’t sacrificing chickens to Baal to accomplish it. They have a system and that’s what we need.

It is too soon to trade Means or Santander, But I fully expect both of them to be on the move in two years.

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2 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

I guess I just see them both guys that get hurt pretty regularly and I've seen enough of those guys who continue to be guys who get hurt pretty regularly. I hope that I am wrong because they both could be solid players who can be used in a trade or make other prospects/players available to be used. 

Mostly, I was just making a joke.  But I do think the slash lines were pessimistic.  The injury part pretty much reflects their history until proven otherwise.   

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On 11/28/2020 at 10:24 AM, Frobby said:

Hays, I think, has considerably more power than he showed in 2020.    I think his BA and OBP from  2020 (.279/.328) are about what I expect from him, but add 30-50 points of SLG.   So that would put his OPS in the .755-.780 range in 2021.   For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him at .255/.303/.442.   I think those are low on BA/OBP and maybe aggressive on ISO.

Santander is sort of the opposite - his ISO of .314 last year does not seem sustainable.    Again I think his BA and OBP from last season are pretty realistic.    Put me down for .775-.800 for him, with a little lower BA/OBP than Hays but a bit more power.   Steamer has him at .262/.312/.479, which looks about right to me.  

BB-ref, which uses Marcel (I think) has Hays at .269/.339/.445 and Santander at .253/.310/.470.

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

BB-ref, which uses Marcel (I think) has Hays at .269/.339/.445 and Santander at .253/.310/.470.

I’d be pretty happy with that season from Hays, especially if he plays more than 130 games or so.

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On 11/29/2020 at 10:06 AM, foxfield said:

An awful lot of name calling in a thread literally titled "What are your expectations...."

The issue with rosy expectations based on small sample sizes is the fact that pretty much every player not named Ruth, Bonds or Trout has real slumps that take real number that real people post and bring them back to a lower level (opposite also). You have to look at track record. .900 just isn't a reasonable expectation even though we can hope for that over a single magical year.

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the better question to ask for these guys is what is your expectation for games played.  

This is the real issue here. Availability is the most important availability. Both guys could turn out to be Steve Pearce for the Red Sox (e.g., a really talented guy who didn't have long term sustained success but who has that magical year in another uniform, but cannot be relied upon to hand a starting role to in our own org.)

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Every Os fan should have an issue with the Angelos family.  They ran this organization into the ground for 15 years and until recently, showed no regard for the Intl market, player development, scouting, etc...

And now that they are doing that, they are cheaping out in a big way only under the disguise of rebuilding because the fans buy into it.

Disclaimer: if they're truly preparing to sell, this is 100% acceptable cost-based activity.

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6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Disclaimer: if they're truly preparing to sell, this is 100% acceptable cost-based activity.

I don't know that 10M in liabilities is going to make much difference when you are talking about a billion dollar price tag.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know that 10M in liabilities is going to make much difference when you are talking about a billion dollar price tag.

No, but if you are buying an expensive house you’d probably rather furnish it yourself than decorate around some lousy furniture that the old owner left behind.    

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, but if you are buying an expensive house you’d probably rather furnish it yourself than decorate around some lousy furniture that the old owner left behind.    

Can just pay a crew to come in and throw out the junk while keeping any interesting pieces.

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25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can just pay a crew to come in and throw out the junk while keeping any interesting pieces.

Some of the coolest things I own were things purchased with the house.

Owners were Vaudeville Performers. Tons of late Vaudeville and early silent movie ephemera

A photo album with original photos (and negatives) of the Japanese Surrender to US Forces on the Battleship Missouri

A massive brass ship's compass from the 1800's along with it's Gimble Mount

A pair of huge oak National Beer kegs from pre-prohibition

 

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1 hour ago, owknows said:

Some of the coolest things I own were things purchased with the house.

Owners were Vaudeville Performers. Tons of late Vaudeville and early silent movie ephemera

A photo album with original photos (and negatives) of the Japanese Surrender to US Forces on the Battleship Missouri

A massive brass ship's compass from the 1800's along with it's Gimble Mount

A pair of huge oak National Beer kegs from pre-prohibition

 

And when I bought house all I got was a shed filled with useless crap. And because I didn't move into the house for several months following purchase by the time I realized the shed wasn't cleaned out, I was stuck with all the stuff. 

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15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mostly, I was just making a joke.  But I do think the slash lines were pessimistic.  The injury part pretty much reflects their history until proven otherwise.   

You are probably correct in saying that the slash lines are pessimistic but call it the "Crush Davis" or "true outcome" effect but I have the sinking feeling that these guys will sacrifice contact for power. I think we saw that this past year in a SSS. I hope I am wrong because both have the potential to be exciting players. If everything clicks for them they could be 5 tool guys to some degree. I just feel like the hit tool isn't going to develop as the defense, arm and speed tools have. 

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