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What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Should means that if Santander had a slash line of 280/325/500, hit 25 homers and drove in 85, Wildcard is saying he would be disappointed in that season.

If I had to guess, 90+% of Orioles fans would sign up for that season for him right now.  That would likely exceed or meet most projections and predictions of him.  Yet Wildcard would say, he should have done better.

Thats an over the top take to have on him. No one, outside of maybe Santanders family, would say he should do that and if he doesn’t, it’s a disappointment.  
 

I am expecting him to be in line with what has done in his career with some slight improvements. I think it’s fair to have those expectations.  

I also think .900 OPS is very optimistic for Santander, when you consider that his .890 last year was built on a .315 ISO.    That’s Chris Davis in his best seasons-type power.   There were only six major league qualifiers last year with a .315+ ISO, and five in 2019.   I think Santander has nice power but not at that level.   Anything over .200-.225 would be gravy.    

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Santander played well, and his defense earned a GG finalist spot, though Gallo clearly beat him. Defense is important. As he learns the intimate details of RF at OPACY, his D can be expected to improve. I don’t think offense improves linearly: as he addresses his flaws-or doesn’t- he will either dramatically improve, or stay about the same. His BABIP was .248, which is below league average(?) and his K rate was only 15.6%. His walk rate is pretty low, which indicates he has a good eye and makes contact, so even if nothing changes, I’d expect better production when the hits stop finding so many gloves. He was worth.9 WAR in 60 games. I’d expect 2 or above if he plays 150 games.

Hays’ bat is a bit more suspect, but it’s logical for him to come into his own as he faces more MLB-level pitching. But his defense is wonderful, and even if he isn’t hitting as well as he should, he’s likely better on offense than Mullins( unless Mullins himself has come into his own, and his 2020 is his new normal.)

Either way, I’m not worried about OF production, so long as Mc and Mancini aren’t out there.

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I can speak for myself.  You are pretty bad at it.

Well if speaking for yourself means placing irrational expectations on a player, you aren’t too good at it either.

I mean seriously..you really think those SHoULD be his numbers?  And if so, you would be disappointed with a 260/325/500 slash line?  I mean, you would have to be disappointed in that if you think his OPS should be 75 points higher.

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37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well if speaking for yourself means placing irrational expectations on a player, you aren’t too good at it either.

I mean seriously..you really think those SHoULD be his numbers?  And if so, you would be disappointed with a 260/325/500 slash line?  I mean, you would have to be disappointed in that if you think his OPS should be 75 points higher.

Who are you trying to convince?  Me.......or yourself.

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5 hours ago, jabba72 said:

I think Santander's just holding down RF until Kjerstad is ready. Maybe he'll produce enough to have some trade value in the future. Hays at least plays a premium position, and the O's dont have a major prospect waiting to step in. I've read Vavra is getting looks in CF so that's something to keep an eye on next year. I think both are capable as everyday players,  but solid defense is probably what keeps them in the lineup. 

31 HR/91 RBI and a GG finalist in his last 130 games isn't considered producing enough? 

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It’s difficult to calculate, because they were all taken at different times, but if you think about the best rule five guys of the last seven or eight years, the best has to be Joe Biagini. He was a great choice, and the Blue Jays got a lot out of him, and then I think they traded him to the Astros. Matt Bowman did well for the Cardinals, but I think he’s out of baseball now.

But which recent R5 picks have done as well as Santander in as little time? He is not just a valuable part of our team, he has considerable trade value, And depending on what Mike thinks of the teams upward trajectory this season, he may find himself being traded at the deadline, and if so, he will be bringing back a meaningful return.

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9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Santander  .850 OPS.   .

BA .280

HR 32

RBI 105

 

Hays

OPS .800

BA  .260

HR    25

RBI   80

So you are saying that my projection of 30 HR and 100 RBI for Santander is actually low.  

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So you are saying that my projection of 30 HR and 100 RBI for Santander is actually low.  

Expectations and projections aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  He could do what we say or he could play in 20 games and miss the season with injury or hit .240 with 18 homers and 60 RBI.  IF he stays healthy, I think our numbers are realistic.  Expect and hope are two different things but I wouldn't be surprised if he did 32/105.

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Santander:  .265 batting average, .325 on base percentage, 25-30 homers, 90-110 RBI.

Hays:  .270 batting average, .340 on base percentage, 18-22 homers, good defense.  

Hays staying healthy is the most important thing, though.  

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I expect them both to continue improving their swing decisions. As they do that, their OBP and slugging will increase. I also believe Hays was miscast as a lead off hitter out of necessity. I think it took away some of his aggression, but perhaps it was good for his growth in plate discipline. 

I expect Hays to settle on his set up and the mechanics of his swing. He constantly changes things. In 2019 Spring training, before his hand injury, he was swinging the bat at an elite level with his hands a little higher and back near his load position. In 2020, he changed his hands set up to lower and hands more in front, causing him to be late often and without as much power.  

I expect Hays to play LF as much as he plays CF, with an occasional DH, which hopefully helps him stay healthy. I expect Santander to play primarily in RF, with some DH. 

Numbers wise, I think both will improve. Santander should be in the .280/.350/.550/.900 range. Hays .270/.340/.500/.840. Hays has every tool and can be a star, but his all out nature as an OF is a blessing and a curse. He has to understand situations and the importance of saving that for when it really matters. 

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