What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

A thread on a baseball message board that's delved into dictionary definitions for verbs is pretty sad.  

“That depends on what your definition of “is” is...”

🙂

[Philip]

I may be incorrect, but I think having a good eye Is the most valuable part of the hitters repertoire, especially when combined with power. That forces the opposition to give you pitches in the zone, because he knows that if he throws out of the zone, you’re just gonna lay off the pitch.

Santander has a ~7% BB rate. I don’t know league average, but 7% is not great I don’t think. However, he ALSO has a ~15% K rate, which pretty good(Again, I don’t know league average, but I would imagine that 15% is quite good.)  That indicates that he’s making a lot of contact. I don’t know what his hard-hit rate is, and I think that’s probably important, but I think it’s pretty clear that he is improving and he’s growing and I can’t see any obvious impediments to him reaching some of the lofty goals that have been suggested for him. A good eye means he’s not being fooled, but a low BB rate means that pitchers are still throwing in the zone. As the pitching gets smarter, I do not know how they will react to him, but I don’t think he’s going to be an easier out as time goes on

[Sports Guy]

Well, Santander has yet to have a 7% walk rate.  His 15% K rate was last year, in a SSS.  That being said, he doesn’t K a lot in other years, so I think that’s fine.

 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

I may be incorrect, but I think having a good eye Is the most valuable part of the hitters repertoire, especially when combined with power. That forces the opposition to give you pitches in the zone, because he knows that if he throws out of the zone, you’re just gonna lay off the pitch.

Santander has a ~7% BB rate. I don’t know league average, but 7% is not great I don’t think. However, he ALSO has a ~15% K rate, which pretty good(Again, I don’t know league average, but I would imagine that 15% is quite good.)  That indicates that he’s making a lot of contact. I don’t know what his hard-hit rate is, and I think that’s probably important, but I think it’s pretty clear that he is improving and he’s growing and I can’t see any obvious impediments to him reaching some of the lofty goals that have been suggested for him. A good eye means he’s not being fooled, but a low BB rate means that pitchers are still throwing in the zone. As the pitching gets smarter, I do not know how they will react to him, but I don’t think he’s going to be an easier out as time goes on

Per Baseball Savant, Santander’s hard hit % was in the 38th percentile, so below average.   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/anthony-santander-623993?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

I think SG is fundamentally right that people should not put too much stock in stats accrued over 37 games.    At the same time, like you I see Santander as a player who is still improving.   

[linedrive]

My expectation is for Hays and Santander to remain healthy and avoid the DL (or whatever it's called). That should go a long way to having a successful season for each of them. With that said, I'd be thrilled if Santander hit .250 with 30 homers and 100 RBI, with Hays hitting .270, 25 homers and 80 RBI. But is that what I expect from them? Probably not. I think my lowest expectation would be for Santander to hit .240, 20 homers and 85 RBI, and Hays to hit .250, 15 homers and 70 RBI. Anything less than that would be disappointing to me... or if they spent a considerable amount of time injured.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..I think Hays is a better CFer than Jones and if he can be an 780-820 OPS guy out there, that’s great.

But Jammer has him at 840.  That’s kind of what I’m referring to when I say “not much more than that”.

Right now Hays is my favorite player on the team.   I like his enthusiasm and all-out style of play.    It has its downside viz. exposure to injuries, but it’s fun to watch players who play like their hair is on fire.   

In terms of what he can be offensively, I think Jones is a pretty good upper limit and aspiration, unless and until Hays is able to refine his plate discipline in a way that Jones was never able to do.   To be fair, Hays has a 6.8% walk rate compared to Jones’ career 4.5%.    But, I think to be as good or better than Jones offensively, Hays will need to get his walk rate in the 8-9% range at least, and get his outside of the zone swing percentage under 35% (he’s at 37.7% for his career, Jones was 41.5%, league average is 30.6%).

Hays should have good power but I think he’s a little short of Jones in that department.   

[Sports Guy]

Yep..really like Hays and what he can potentially bring to us.

That being said, this is pretty much his last chance if he wants to be a starter in Baltimore.

[scOtt]

Late to this thread but here's mine. Santander I don't expect any more than he gave us this year before he got hurt. But that's ok. A whole healthy year, that's a solid MLer.

Hays... health is the biggest question. Total wrench in the gears. In a full year I would expect BIG things from him. He's not going to hit 30 HRs, but he might hit 30+ doubles and steal 30 bases. Play a stellar CF. I like Austin a lot! For a CFer he's what you want, a take charge guy. If there's a Bermuda Triangle pop up, and he can get to it, he will scream out and call everyone off. I noticed that from his first few games up. Not intimidated when he hit the bigs.

[scOtt]

https://www.mlb.com/video/hays-great-dive-in-9th

[MCO'sFan]

I don't mean to be a downer but I expect Hayes to play good defense, hit .250/.310 OBP with 9 HR's before getting hurt and missing a large part of the season.

 

I expect Santander to play good defense, hit .225/.275 OBP with 25 HR and miss about 4-6 weeks with various injuries.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

I don't mean to be a downer but I expect Hayes to play good defense, hit .250/.310 OBP with 9 HR's before getting hurt and missing a large part of the season.

 

I expect Santander to play good defense, hit .225/.275 OBP with 25 HR and miss about 4-6 weeks with various injuries.

Wow.   I’d hate to see what you’d predict if you did mean to be a downer.  

[Sports Guy]

I think the better question to ask for these guys is what is your expectation for games played.  
 

I think we all agree that if they both play enough, that they will hit enough to play everyday.  
 

But will they play enough games?

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the better question to ask foe these guys is what is your expectation for games played.  
 

I think we all agree that if they both play enough, that they will hit enough to play everyday.  
 

But will they play enough games?

I'm kind of using them (among other things) as a barometer of the progression of the rebuild.

In the early phases of the rebuild, the O's were trying to reclaim scrap heap players and hoping for early market-outperform resources they could trade at the deadline (in addition to trading what was left of the previous team's actual talent). But they are slowly migrating away from journeymen pitchers and position players toward pieces they might have future plans for.

This tells me we've rounded the bottom and will now start looking to build the major league team instead of just the farm. It will still be a slow process. Money, winning pct, where we are in the plan will determine if (and at what tier) free agents can be added. I'm hoping they resist that urge and see what they have for a year.

You'll know the plan is accelerating when Rutschman and the next crop of pitchers arrive. I think the bolus of pitching talent throttling through the minors is what will make a contender by 2022.. and Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mountcastle, Mancini and and if we're lucky Iglesias make a pretty good starting point.

Things are looking up... and I think the intent is to create sustainable progress by doing it on the cheap... play 'em as long as you can and then trading the top tier resources with time enough left under team control that they bring a healthy return... play north of 500 all the time.. and constantly re-stuffing the pipeline.

 

It's the only way to sustain a mid market team

 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, owknows said:

It's the only way to sustain a mid market team

 

I don't think it's the only way for a mid-market team.  They can lock up key players early to affordable contracts.  A mid-market team can afford a couple sizeable contracts.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm kind of using them (among other things) as a barometer of the progression of the rebuild.

In the early phases of the rebuild, the O's were trying to reclaim scrap heap players and hoping for early market-outperform resources they could trade at the deadline (in addition to trading what was left of the previous team's actual talent). But they are slowly migrating away from journeymen pitchers and position players toward pieces they might have future plans for.

This tells me we've rounded the bottom and will now start looking to build the major league team instead of just the farm. It will still be a slow process. Money, winning pct, where we are in the plan will determine if (and at what tier) free agents can be added. I'm hoping they resist that urge and see what they have for a year.

You'll know the plan is accelerating when Rutschman and the next crop of pitchers arrive. I think the bolus of pitching talent throttling through the minors is what will make a contender by 2022.. and Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mountcastle, Mancini and and if we're lucky Iglesias make a pretty good starting point.

Things are looking up... and I think the intent is to create sustainable progress by doing it on the cheap... play 'em as long as you can and then trading the top tier resources with time enough left under team control that they bring a healthy return... play north of 500 all the time.. and constantly re-stuffing the pipeline.

 

It's the only way to sustain a mid market team

 

I don’t think Hays or Santander are keys to anything.  They are role players.  They aren’t the guys you want to make up your core.