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Frobby

What do you expect from Ryan Mountcastle in 2021?

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I feel like the Mountcastle/Castellanos profile is relatively low variance, and how happy this decade will be depends on can anyone aside from Rutschman push him down towards 3rd/4th/5th banana on offense?

You're the Tigers of recent vintage if Castellanos is on the cover of the team magazine, but he's a good piece to have.  I also feel the bat-to-ball ability is a good cornerstone for durable value as pitches get hotter in the aggregate.  The Seth Smiths of yesteryear I think will have it tougher - the analytics will ferret them out fast and four-seams of X velocity + Y spin rate will dare Uncle Seth to hit them.

OBP-wise, I confess against type I'm more curious if he's a real .315 hitter than if he can inch his walk rate up towards a more respectable AVG/OBP separation.

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On 12/1/2020 at 3:57 PM, Frobby said:

FWIW, Steamer projects Mountcastle at .276/.321/.475 with 26 homers, 84 RBI in 138 games.    That wouldn’t be too bad.   

BB-ref (which uses Marcel, I think) projects him at .283/.356/.463.   That BA/OBP spread strikes me as highly improbable.   
 

I think the Steamer projection is pretty good.  I also think that in other eras Mountcastle could have been a .320 hitter, but nobody does that any more.

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