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25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Under your strict guidelines, would you have promoted Trey Mancini to the majors in 2017 after he posted a .775 OPS at Norfolk?

How is this comparable? This was Mancini's service time for 2017 ....... 0.015 ,  What is that 1.5%

 

Quote
Year Age Tm Salary SrvTm Sources Notes/Other Sources
Career to date (may be incomplete) $6,418,000  
2017 25 Baltimore Orioles $536,000 0.015 contracts  
2018 26 Baltimore Orioles $556,500 1.015    
2019 27 Baltimore Orioles $575,500 2.015 contract  
2020 28 Baltimore Orioles $4,750,000 3.015 contract  
2021 Status 2nd-Year Arb Eligible, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2020, Earliest Free Agent: 2023

Also Trey had 611 at bats between AA and AAA in 2016 ..... Rutcshman and DIaz havent seen AAA. AR is only 22..... Diaz is 25 in October 2021 and hit .260 in his time at AA. AR hasn't played above Aberdeen. Why rush either to the majors in 2021 when you want to lose 100 games?

 

Its wasted service time

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

When we judge he is more worthy of playing time than someone else on the 25-man roster, they can bring him up and send someone else down.    Could be he replaces Stewart or Mullins, for example.    Or, like I said, maybe someone gets hurt and he’s the best available option.  No reason to force things one way or the other.    

I look at it more as a planned promotion for Diaz.  With someone being put on the opening day roster knowing they will likely be sent down when Diaz is ready.  Maybe either Stewart or Urias.

I think Hyde may put a rotation into effect with Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mancini and Mountcastle getting days off every 5 games.  Diaz playing LF/RF/DH.  Maddon did something similar when Hyde was with the Cubs.   It will not work exactly like that.  Mullins may sit vs lefties.

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28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Under your strict guidelines, would you have promoted Trey Mancini to the majors in 2017 after he posted a .775 OPS at Norfolk?

I do think we need to recognize that .775 OPS at Norfolk in 2016 was a lot different than .775 at Norfolk in 2019.

But, I agree with the point you are making.    Every player needs to be judged on the facts and circumstances, not some bright line statistical test.  

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11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

How is this comparable? This was Mancini's service time for 2017 ....... 0.015 ,  What is that 1.5%

Its 15 service time days.   It was...some time...before I had the A-Ha moment they weren't decimals, though before it did hit me weird the decimals never seemed to get past .170.

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20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

How is this comparable? This was Mancini's service time for 2017 ....... 0.015 ,  What is that 1.5%

 

Also Trey had 611 at bats between AA and AAA in 2016 ..... Rutcshman and DIaz havent seen AAA. AR is only 22..... Diaz is 25 in October 2021 and hit .260 in his time at AA. AR hasn't played above Aberdeen. Why rush either to the majors in 2021 when you want to lose 100 games?

 

Its wasted service time

I’m trying to figure out your argument here And I’m having trouble with it because you seem to be bouncing around from idea to idea, even within the same post.

If Diaz and Rutschman perform well at the high levels of the minors and are healthy, would you still keep them down in 2021?  If so, when would you actually bring them up? 

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18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

How is this comparable? This was Mancini's service time for 2017 ....... 0.015 ,  What is that 1.5%

You are looking at 2016, not 2017. Trey had a brief call up in September 2016.   He spent all of 2017 in the majors.    

This whole argument is kind of a waste of time.    Let’s see how Diaz does at Norfolk.   Let’s see how our other players are doing, both in Baltimore and Norfolk.   I can envision scenarios where Diaz is in Baltimore by May, and others where he’s in Norfolk all year.   
 

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Am I the only one who thinks Diaz won't amount to anything?

Not really a reach for me as I've conditioned myself to think none of our prospects will amount to anything.  But still.

He won’t if he can’t get and stay healthy.

I think he’s a solid regular if he can be healthy though.  
 

But I think we have several guys that fall into that category.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He won’t if he can’t get and stay healthy.

I think he’s a solid regular if he can be healthy though.  
 

But I think we have several guys that fall into that category.

Don't get me wrong, I want to see him.  But I agree, we have a few guys that fall into that category.

Davis needs to be dealt with, IMO.  That would free up some more flexibility that could allow Diaz some time in 2021 in Baltimore.  You get Mancini/Mountcastle at 1st base/DH, frees up an outfield spot.  

 

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Don't get me wrong, I want to see him.  But I agree, we have a few guys that fall into that category.

Davis needs to be dealt with, IMO.  That would free up some more flexibility that could allow Diaz some time in 2021 in Baltimore.  You get Mancini/Mountcastle at 1st base/DH, frees up an outfield spot.  

 

I think if Davis is here or not, it doesn’t matter.

I hope that once we know when the season starts and if money will be saved, that they are cutting him at that point.

I tend to doubt it though because our ownership just isn’t that smart.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

When we judge he is more worthy of playing time than someone else on the 25-man roster, they can bring him up and send someone else down.    Could be he replaces Stewart or Mullins, for example.    Or, like I said, maybe someone gets hurt and he’s the best available option.  No reason to force things one way or the other.    

I think this is the real key. The Orioles need to find playing time for Stewart and Mullins to see what they have in them. If Mancini is able to go next year, that pushes Mountcastle back to LF with Hays in CF and Santander in RF. That leaves Stewart DHing and Mullins as the 4th outfielder. Diaz should start the year in AAA and if playing time arises through injury or poor performance, as long as he's playing ok, he should be the next up for a shot. 

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Roll Tide, I think that maybe you are discounting what the Orioles saw in players in 2020 at Bowie.  If the Orioles saw real growth and progress there, I don't think they are going to place players at their 2019 levels as if 2020 never happened.  From what I read, it seems that the Orioles were very encouraged by what went on at Bowie in 2020 for a lot of players there.

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13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Am I the only one who thinks Diaz won't amount to anything?

Not really a reach for me as I've conditioned myself to think none of our prospects will amount to anything.  But still.

He's a bit of unknown for me still, but I do think he has a much better chance of ending up a 4th outfielder or lower Division starter rather than an impact bat or even an everyday outfielder. I don't see him as a guy you make playing time for but rather a guy who forces his way up due to his production. There is some talent there, but he's never been able to tap into his raw power enough and his defense in RF is adequate, not anything spectacular though he does have a sold avg right fielder arm. 

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think if Davis is here or not, it doesn’t matter.

I hope that once we know when the season starts and if money will be saved, that they are cutting him at that point.

I tend to doubt it though because our ownership just isn’t that smart.

I'd like to see ownership as being better since they hired Elias, adopted analytics and have allowed him to work in the international markets.  It seems like Elias has been able to hire the people that he's wanted to hire, too.

The Davis thing is the only thing that holds me back from feeling that they've turned a corner and are headed in the right direction.  At the very least, it's perplexing. 

 

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think this is the real key. The Orioles need to find playing time for Stewart and Mullins to see what they have in them. If Mancini is able to go next year, that pushes Mountcastle back to LF with Hays in CF and Santander in RF. That leaves Stewart DHing and Mullins as the 4th outfielder. Diaz should start the year in AAA and if playing time arises through injury or poor performance, as long as he's playing ok, he should be the next up for a shot. 

I think we know what Mullins is, he's like Corey Patterson.  Fast, decent defender, can drop a bunt and you have to account for him on the bases once he's on.  

@Sports Guy, but this is what I'm talking about.  As surprising as Mountcastle was in LF, I want him at 1st base with Mancini DHing.  I want LF open for Diaz, Hays in CF and Santander in right.  I'm really not concerned about Stewart, either but whatever.  Davis holds all of this up and it's terrible.

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19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Am I the only one who thinks Diaz won't amount to anything?

Not really a reach for me as I've conditioned myself to think none of our prospects will amount to anything.  But still.

Yes, you are that guy.😁

You deserves a good shot.   Enough playing time to determine how good or bad he is.

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