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LookinUp

Jose Iglesias traded to Angels.

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think they decided adding to their stable of minor league pitchers was more important than having Iglesias.   Simple as that.   Elias is bringing in a ton of prospects and hoping that some develop well.   The more there are, the better the chances.   

I think Elias decided that.

 

But I think ownership said cut more costs somewhere.

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52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think they decided adding to their stable of minor league pitchers was more important than having Iglesias.   Simple as that.   Elias is bringing in a ton of prospects and hoping that some develop well.   The more there are, the better the chances.   

Bottom line of both Iglesias and Rule V. More pitching in hopes that some develop.

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7 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Bottom line of both Iglesias and Rule V. More pitching in hopes that some develop.

Except it’s not more pitching in terms of the rule 5.  We lost 2 and gained 2 and what we lost has higher upside than what we gained.

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Except it’s not more pitching in terms of the rule 5.  We lost 2 and gained 2 and what we lost has higher upside than what we gained.

You're really digging in on the "Pop's middle relief to potential late inning arm is higher upside than two guys who have a chance to be starters and whose stuff would most likely play up if moved to the bullpen" point aren't you?

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13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You're really digging in on the "Pop's middle relief to potential late inning arm is higher upside than two guys who have a chance to be starters and whose stuff would most likely play up if moved to the bullpen" point aren't you?

Well first of all, I don’t buy into either of these guys being able to be starters for the long term, especially Ben’s nephew.  Maybe Wells could but I think it’s unlikely.  
 

So, my evaluation of all of these guys is that they will be relievers and Pop has the best stuff and most upside of the group.  Plus, he’s a few years younger.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, I don’t buy into either of these guys being able to be starters for the long term, especially Ben’s nephew.  Maybe Wells could but I think it’s unlikely.  
 

So, my evaluation of all of these guys is that they will be relievers and Pop has the best stuff and most upside of the group.  Plus, he’s a few years younger.

Yep, and for some reason the O's disagree. We won't know until we know.

All I know is there is some reason we didn't protect Pop and some reason we picked these two guys. Those reasons might be completely unrelated.

What's kind of clear to me is they didn't have a strategy of targeting 1 guy in particular. That's important because if the O's were targeting 1 guy in particular, it's possible they would have failed (e.g., he was taken before us). In that case, you might say that they took a gamble by not protecting Pop. But they left 2 spots open and drafted 2 guys. That means they felt that there was an available profile (or just a bunch of players) that they preferred to Pop. They decided the players available in rounds 1 AND 2 of the Rule V draft are more valuable than Pop.

So they don't like Pop anywhere near as much as you do. That's the conclusion I've come to.

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Yep, and for some reason the O's disagree. We won't know until we know.

All I know is there is some reason we didn't protect Pop and some reason we picked these two guys. Those reasons might be completely unrelated.

What's kind of clear to me is they didn't have a strategy of targeting 1 guy in particular. That's important because if the O's were targeting 1 guy in particular, it's possible they would have failed (e.g., he was taken before us). In that case, you might say that they took a gamble by not protecting Pop. But they left 2 spots open and drafted 2 guys. That means they felt that there was an available profile (or just a bunch of players) that they preferred to Pop. They decided the players available in rounds 1 AND 2 of the Rule V draft are more valuable than Pop.

So they don't like Pop anywhere near as much as you do. That's the conclusion I've come to.

Glad to hear it.  I’m still allowed to have the opinion I do though.  

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Glad to hear it.  I’m still allowed to have the opinion I do though.  

Sure you are, but I actually think that thought process is important.

There's something about Pop that we didn't like, but we know at least one other team really did like him. I suspect they put him in the category of a replaceable dime a dozen middle reliever who's coming back from an injury and might not even stick on a ML roster for all of 2021. I doubt they hate him. I bet it's more like they just think it's a fair risk to take that we won't lose him for the year. If we do, not a huge loss. If we don't, we'll welcome him back with open arms.

Maybe he's not back to form yet? Seems unlikely given the timelines of his surgery, but with Covid who really knows? In any case, he's clearly not coveted by the front office for some reason. As I said in a post yesterday, I suspect it's because his advanced metrics don't fit the profile they want, and I'm fine with that.

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7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Sure you are, but I actually think that thought process is important.

There's something about Pop that we didn't like, but we know at least one other team really did like him. I suspect they put him in the category of a replaceable dime a dozen middle reliever who's coming back from an injury and might not even stick on a ML roster for all of 2021. I doubt they hate him. I bet it's more like they just think it's a fair risk to take that we won't lose him for the year. If we do, not a huge loss. If we don't, we'll welcome him back with open arms.

Maybe he's not back to form yet? Seems unlikely given the timelines of his surgery, but with Covid who really knows? In any case, he's clearly not coveted by the front office for some reason. As I said in a post yesterday, I suspect it's because his advanced metrics don't fit the profile they want, and I'm fine with that.

I think the process is pretty simple..the Os gambled that Pop wouldn’t be selected after not pitching for a long time and coming off TJ surgery and they ended up being proved wrong.

And we should all have a problem if they feel every pitcher has to fit into a certain mold, so I hate that thought.

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Here's another way to look at this. Luke wrote this prospect report in 2019. 
https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/19/orioles-23-prospect-zach-pop-rhp/

It reads like everything you (and I) like. 

But look at the actual thread OP. His grades are 30 (present value), 40 (future value, middle relief), 45 (ceiling, setup). Even with a nice, bullish write-up, he was a 40-45 guy. 

Now I like those guys. I want a lot of them too and I'm sure I would prefer to have that profile to someone else on our 40 man roster. But that write-up was before surgery, so you have to throw in that unknown. 

 

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7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Here's another way to look at this. Luke wrote this prospect report in 2019. 
https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/19/orioles-23-prospect-zach-pop-rhp/

It reads like everything you (and I) like. 

But look at the actual thread OP. His grades are 30 (present value), 40 (future value, middle relief), 45 (ceiling, setup). Even with a nice, bullish write-up, he was a 40-45 guy. 

Now I like those guys. I want a lot of them too and I'm sure I would prefer to have that profile to someone else on our 40 man roster. But that write-up was before surgery, so you have to throw in that unknown. 

 

Yea, this has zero impact on me.  First of all, it’s the opinion of one person.   No one person has infallible positions on anything.  That’s nothing against Luke whatsoever, I enjoyed his stuff a lot and had a lot of Twitter exchanges with him.  Just simply saying that pointing to one scouting report doesn’t carry a ton of weight. Now, that being said, I always got the impression that Pop was a guy that wasn’t likely to be one of your top 3 BP arms. But if he could be your 4th or 5th arm making no money, that’s valuable.  I also think his upside is to be one of those top 3 arms but he’s not near that upside yet.  In that regards, I probably agree with Luke’s assessment of him.  But I like the ceiling of him as well. (Not sure what Luke thought of his ceiling)

Secondly, we have several guys on the roster that just aren’t good or aren’t any part of a future contending team that we could easily drop before Pop.

Lastly, the guys we acquired aren’t anything special.  Ben’s nephew didn’t even pitch that great in A ball, when he was old for the league.  That matters..A LOT.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, this has zero impact on me.  First of all, it’s the opinion of one person.   No one person has infallible positions on anything.  That’s nothing against Luke whatsoever, I enjoyed his stuff a lot and had a lot of Twitter exchanges with him.  Just simply saying that pointing to one scouting report doesn’t carry a ton of weight. Now, that being said, I always got the impression that Pop was a guy that wasn’t likely to be one of your top 3 BP arms. But if he could be your 4th or 5th arm making no money, that’s valuable.  I also think his upside is to be one of those top 3 arms but he’s not near that upside yet.  In that regards, I probably agree with Luke’s assessment of him.  But I like the ceiling of him as well. (Not sure what Luke thought of his ceiling)

Secondly, we have several guys on the roster that just aren’t good or aren’t any part of a future contending team that we could easily drop before Pop.

Lastly, the guys we acquired aren’t anything special.  Ben’s nephew didn’t even pitch that great in A ball, when he was old for the league.  That matters..A LOT.  

Well I agree that I doubt the guys we picked up fit a profile as special. If they did, they wouldn't likely be available in the Rule V draft.

I really agree with your whole post, so it brings me back to the idea that the O's took that risk on Pop for a reason. 

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4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well I agree that I doubt the guys we picked up fit a profile as special. If they did, they wouldn't likely be available in the Rule V draft.

I really agree with your whole post, so it brings me back to the idea that the O's took that risk on Pop for a reason. 

Like most prospects, Pop is unlikely to amount to anything in the majors.  These moves, whether you like them or hate them, will likely have very little future impact on anything. 
 

The issue is if Pop ends up being an above average or better reliever in the majors and none of the rule 5 guys amount to anything.  
 

But to be honest, my bigger issue with this is that you kept the guys like Sulser, Valdez and Lakins on the 40 man over Pop.  Those guys are nothing.  You can literally pick them up for free whenever you want (which is what they did).  
 

There is no argument to keep them over Pop.  Even if you hate Pop as a prospect, you still take his age and stuff over those guys.

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7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the process is pretty simple..the Os gambled that Pop wouldn’t be selected after not pitching for a long time and coming off TJ surgery and they ended up being proved wrong.

And we should all have a problem if they feel every pitcher has to fit into a certain mold, so I hate that thought.

Something like 5 of the top 7 guys picked were pitchers coming off TJ surgery.    That was interesting.

As to preferring pitchers of a certain type, I don’t mind it, so long as you can find enough quality candidates of that type.   

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