Where will Tony place Garrett Stallings on the Top 30?

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Off topic, but kinda on topic...

Anyone have any idea on how many of Tony's top 30 over the years have made the majors?  Wondering the percentage.  Probably would be a bit of an undertaking to figure it out but I'm curious.  

I saw Tony said he could put him on the back end of the list, IMO that means anywhere from 25 or later.  Would be curious to see how many of the players over the years from 20-30 have made the majors.

I would assume guys who make it to the majors eventually move up the list first, at least typically. A guy like Mancini for example, would have been off the list entirely when he was first drafted, then the back end, then the top-10.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I guess it's at least good that we got to "scout" him a bit on video and through instructional camp. At least we have a sense that he likely didn't really let himself go during all of this down time. So that's good.

But is this a type that Elias targeted for a reason, or is it a live arm that Elias took as a way to dump salary? His comments indicate the former, but we really won't know until they get to playing for real in 2021.

Seems like Elias likes to trade for guys without a ton of MiL track record, particularly pitchers (or at least isn't shy about it). I wonder if the idea is that these are guys he liked in the rule 4 draft and he thinks there is excess value to be had. That is, his or the team's internal valuation is significantly above market perception. 

[owknows]

22 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Seems like Elias likes to trade for guys without a ton of MiL track record, particularly pitchers (or at least isn't shy about it). I wonder if the idea is that these are guys he liked in the rule 4 draft and he thinks there is excess value to be had. That is, his or the team's internal valuation is significantly above market perception. 

I would think in general that pitchers with a considerable POSITIVE MiL resume aren't going to be had for the kind of dumpster dive flips that Elias applied here... or even for our mid level talent

That would leave pitchers with a considerable MiL resume that is "just OK"..

Or pitchers without a ton of MiL experience who Elias likes.

And I would think those would be preferable...Get 'em before anyone knows that they might be very good... at the risk that they're not very good.

In other words.. if you're going to gamble...you'd probably choose an unknown poker hand over a pair of 4's

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Ask @Frobby. If he doesn’t already know, he will ten seconds after you pose the question to him.

Well, I don’t know offhand, but I can tell you this — it probably varies a lot depending on when the list was made.  I don’t know if Tony did top 30 lists right after he started the site, but he’s been doing them for 20ish years at least, including periods where the farm was incredibly bare.  I’ve eyeballed several of Tony’s list and I’d say roughly half of those listed reach the majors.   Here’s some links:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/04/05/top-30-prospects-heading-2017/

 

[weams]

Roch

Quote

The Angels selected Stallings in the fifth round in 2019 after he made 16 starts for the University of Tennessee and went 8-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.227 WHIP and averaged 1.4 walks and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The Orioles liked him heading into the draft. They scouted and liked him at the Angels’ alternate camp and fall instructional camp. He’s known to have a legitimate four-pitch mix with excellent command of a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Baseball Savant’s report noted how Stallings throws it with “a ton of sink.” The changeup appears to be his second-best pitch, but Stallings also is armed with a curveball and slider-cutter. He averaged only 1.3 walks and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings in three seasons at Tennessee. The Orioles think he could slot in the middle or backend of their rotation. But first, he needs to join an affiliate for the first time.

 

[Number5]

10 hours ago, owknows said:

I would think in general that pitchers with a considerable POSITIVE MiL resume aren't going to be had for the kind of dumpster dive flips that Elias applied here... or even for our mid level talent

That would leave pitchers with a considerable MiL resume that is "just OK"..

Or pitchers without a ton of MiL experience who Elias likes.

And I would think those would be preferable...Get 'em before anyone knows that they might be very good... at the risk that they're not very good.

In other words.. if you're going to gamble...you'd probably choose an unknown poker hand over a pair of 4's

 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t know offhand, but I can tell you this — it probably varies a lot depending on when the list was made.  I don’t know if Tony did top 30 lists right after he started the site, but he’s been doing them for 20ish years at least, including periods where the farm was incredibly bare.  I’ve eyeballed several of Tony’s list and I’d say roughly half of those listed reach the majors.   Here’s some links:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/04/05/top-30-prospects-heading-2017/

 

Some blasts from the past. thanks Frobby. I'll have to see if I can find some stuff on old hard drives and maybe post some others.

As for me, I've been doing the top prospects lists since that end off 1996, but the very early lists were done completely off stats and with me knowing very little at the time about age vs level vs league dynamics (If i remember right, I have Mike Berry pretty high based off his High Desert year haha).

It's interesting to look over these lists and know how I've learned and improved as an evaluator. I will say in between 2000 and 2003, I was seeing 50-70 games a year between Bowie, Frederick, Delmarva and Bluefield a few years. I was one of the few people doing player evaluations outside of BA and maybe John Sickels back then. 

That was when I knew every manager and coach had direct access to many scouts in the system and some out of the system. It's too bad there wasn't much talent back then, Maybe I should go back and do a revised top ten with some thoughts on guys and what happened tp those that didn't make it to the majors and even some that did? 

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

 

Literally my favorite movie... (and kinda my life story)

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Roch

 

This Roch report is much more positive than the other stuff I saw. Sits low 90's, change up went from below average in one write-up to his second best offering. Tremendous sink. They're describing an actual legit 4 pitch mix, as opposed to a guy who just throws 4 types of pitches.

We'll see how it goes relatively soon, I hope.

[Number5]

17 minutes ago, owknows said:

Literally my favorite movie... (and kinda my life story)

I'm shakin' it, Boss.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This Roch report is much more positive than the other stuff I saw. Sits low 90's, change up went from below average in one write-up to his second best offering. Tremendous sink. They're describing an actual legit 4 pitch mix, as opposed to a guy who just throws 4 types of pitches.

We'll see how it goes relatively soon, I hope.

Most of the scouting reports I've read is that his change is actually his 4th pitch vice 2nd pitch. But then again, what do you expect to get from a MASN report? Of course it's going to be glowing.

Either way, we'll know more after hopefully seeing him next year in the minors. I'm hoping MLB will have a much better plan for the minors like complex leagues in Florida and Arizona even if this COVID restriction crap is still going on so we get some minor league action to watch and evaluate. 

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Most of the scouting reports I've read is that his change is actually his 4th pitch vice 2nd pitch. But then again, what do you expect to get from a MASN report? Of course it's going to be glowing.

I agree. I don't really trust Elias or MASN to give us a sober assessment of the players we acquire. However, I think we can assume that Elias does like this guy, so there's reason for hope.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Most of the scouting reports I've read is that his change is actually his 4th pitch vice 2nd pitch. But then again, what do you expect to get from a MASN report? Of course it's going to be glowing.

Either way, we'll know more after hopefully seeing him next year in the minors. I'm hoping MLB will have a much better plan for the minors like complex leagues in Florida and Arizona even if this COVID restriction crap is still going on so we get some minor league action to watch and evaluate. 

They need to have a MiL season.

I was thinking today how much this is really effecting teams.  Take the Os.   They have a lot of 2nd, SS and 3rd base prospects (some guys who will be moved) but no idea how good any of them really are.  How do you plan for the future when you don’t see these guys but you also don’t want to block them?  It’s really tough.  MLB had to figure this out and have these kids out there ASAP.

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree. I don't really trust Elias or MASN to give us a sober assessment of the players we acquire. However, I think we can assume that Elias does like this guy, so there's reason for hope.

I think Elias is going to give a good report of the guy, but he's certainly not going to talk about things the player needs to improve. Of course he's going to be a little rosey on the guy since he just acquired him.

[jerios55]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Elias is going to give a good report of the guy, but he's certainly not going to talk about things the player needs to improve. Of course he's going to be a little rosey on the guy since he just acquired him.

In fairness, all GMs will do this, so there really is not much to it.  ME might be more blunt/direct, but rosy talk on new guys is normal.

If he ever trades for a guy and says it was better than a bag of balls, then we can be worried about the decision.