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AZRon

Projected Orioles 2021 Opening Day Payroll (ODP)

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On November 16, 2018, Mike Elias was hired by the Baltimore Orioles as Executive Vice-President and General Manager.

After allowing for the previous administration's 2018 player trades and the ensuing player declarations of free agency, Elias inherited a minimum 2019 opening day player payroll (ODP) of about $61 million(M). The O's ODP in 2018 had been $154.5M.

Elias's ODP for 2019 was, in fact, just over $82M. Adjusted for a 162 game season, his ODP for 2020 was just under $63M.

For those who want to play GM, I am presenting my current projected ODP for the start of the 2021 season. The O's will have pay obligations for all players on the 40 man roster, but I'm dealing only with the "active" roster (I'm assuming a 26 player limit).

To be on this list, the player must be under contract or under team control.

The players listed on the chart linked below are my current guesses based on the above requirement and transactions to date. I'll update the chart as the off-season proceeds and/or my magic 8-ball results change (all help appreciated).

Salaries are displayed as rounded to the nearest $10k, but the total is accurate to 2 decimal places.

Projections for those under contract are from authoritative media sources or the Cots Baseball Prospectus Compensation Website - https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

The 2021 MLB minimum salary is $570,500. 

I provide this information so that we can make accurate and useful comparisons to the opening day payrolls of the Orioles in previous years, other MLB teams and the totals for Major League Baseball. As with virtually all team opening day payroll tabulations on the web, my total payroll figure does not reflect any deductions for deferred salaries or additions for set-asides for deferrals from previous years (as required by Article XVI of the CBA). So, please, let's dispense with the squabbling over the "accounting" for salary deferrals. I have noted the 2021 contract deferrals in the right-most column of the below chart.

The chart is available on Google docs at:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r9rXsnRddT87SU72o4a0Jn6q_fIDbi3Dxlu_9OZiqCo/edit?usp=sharing

Edited by AZRon
1/26/2021 - Added Freddy Galvis; 2/3/2021 - Deleted Alex Cobb; 2/5/2021 - Arbitration ruling Santander
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I think Cobb's 2020 salary is no correct.   I think if I am reading it right he paid 5m and 10m is deferred.

From Cots Contracts:

  • $20M is deferred ($6.5M of 2018 salary and $4.5M annually of 2019-21 salaries), to be paid $2M on 11/30/22 and $1.8M annually each 11/30, 2023-32)
  • if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020, an additional $5.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, to be paid $1.75M annually each 11/30, 2033-35

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

Please  correct me if I am wrong.

 

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Wildcard:

Here's what I see for Alex Cobb on the COTS website:

4 years/$57M (2018-21)
signed by Baltimore as a free agent 3/21/18
18:$14M, 19:$14M 20:$14M, 21:$15M
annual performance bonus: $0.5M for 180 innings pitched
$20M is deferred ($6.5M of 2018 salary and $4.5M annually of 2019-21 salaries), to be paid $2M on 11/30/22 and $1.8M annually each 11/30, 2023-32)
if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020, an additional $5.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, to be paid $1.75M annually each 11/30, 2033-35

Cobb pitched the 162 game equivalent of 140 2/3 innings in 2020, so, I assume that the last deferral possibility does not apply.

Therefore, for 2021 his salary is $15M with $4,5M deferred.

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9 hours ago, AZRon said:

Wildcard:

Here's what I see for Alex Cobb on the COTS website:

4 years/$57M (2018-21)
signed by Baltimore as a free agent 3/21/18
18:$14M, 19:$14M 20:$14M, 21:$15M
annual performance bonus: $0.5M for 180 innings pitched
$20M is deferred ($6.5M of 2018 salary and $4.5M annually of 2019-21 salaries), to be paid $2M on 11/30/22 and $1.8M annually each 11/30, 2023-32)
if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020, an additional $5.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, to be paid $1.75M annually each 11/30, 2033-35

Cobb pitched the 162 game equivalent of 140 2/3 innings in 2020, so, I assume that the last deferral possibility does not apply.

Therefore, for 2021 his salary is $15M with $4,5M deferred.

OK, but we don't know if the equivalent  is really the measure being used.  In reality he did not pitch 130 innings n 2020.  Its your chart so I am good either way.  Nice work.

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It looks reasonable.  I tend to doubt Mattson is up on OD and I’m really hoping they do more on the left side of the IF but it wouldn’t surprise me if this is the alignment.

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The mature Machado terms crested from 2016-2018 at ballpark $150M/year.

With the broadest brush possible, if we figure "all the Orioles best players" have their club control seasons in 2021/2022/2023 (if they earn it next summer, I feel both Rodriguez and Hall should get cups of coffee--if not more--to inform their '21-'22 offseason), and arb 2024-2027, those early Rutschman teams of '22 onwards could have their Tejada character and still be very affordable in an MLB-average context.

The core talent should make an obvious contender by 2023 when the Davis thing at last goes away, and hopefully 2022 won't get sandbagged with that built-in excuse.   Especially if Means and Santander continue playing their way toward building block status, that Winning Switch setting ought to be on its last 10 months.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

OK, but we don't know if the equivalent  is really the measure being used.  In reality he did not pitch 130 innings n 2020.  Its your chart so I am good either way.  Nice work.

Wildcard:

I think it's fair to "assume" that, if the contract terms for annual salary were adjusted proportionately for the shortened season, then, all other contract terms were adjusted in the same manner (with the possible exception of the deferred accrual for 2020).

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27 minutes ago, AZRon said:

 

Wildcard:

I think it's fair to "assume" that, if the contract terms for annual salary were adjusted proportionately for the shortened season, then, all other contract terms were adjusted in the same manner (with the possible exception of the deferred accrual for 2020).

I agree, AZ.  I have posted multiple times this off-season that Cobb's $ is unlikely to be deferred because he likely will be considered to have met the threshold.  IMO, the Os are better off this way - paying Cobb in full this year and not having his contract impact future years.

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This is a great exercise, AZRon.

Elias continues to be hamstrung by the Davis and Cobb contracts - master of the obvious.  These older, veteran contracts not only prevent the payroll from being lower, but prevent Elias from making multiple investments in $3M-$6M free agents that might be worthwhile investments into our next competitive team or to flip for prospects.  $38M in 2021 that generated 0 WAR in 2020 and negative WAR in 2019.  In the third year of a re-build, that is a lot of wasted $.

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8 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

This is a great exercise, AZRon.

Elias continues to be hamstrung by the Davis and Cobb contracts - master of the obvious.  These older, veteran contracts not only prevent the payroll from being lower, but prevent Elias from making multiple investments in $3M-$6M free agents that might be worthwhile investments into our next competitive team or to flip for prospects.  $38M in 2021 that generated 0 WAR in 2020 and negative WAR in 2019.  In the third year of a re-build, that is a lot of wasted $.

He’s not hamstrung by those contracts.  He is hamstrung by ownership.  

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not hamstrung by those contracts.  He is hamstrung by ownership.  

If you were worth replying to, I would have posted many more times in the past week. 

You can post your opinion as many times as you want on the same subject.  It doesn't make your opinion right.

Anyone with the baseball interest you have should know the difference in rating (and risk) between 17 and 18 year old high schoolers taken in the draft and pending 16 year old international signings (who were scouted and agreed to deals as 14 and 15 year olds) - as a for instance.

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29 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

If you were worth replying to, I would have posted many more times in the past week. 

You can post your opinion as many times as you want on the same subject.  It doesn't make your opinion right.

Anyone with the baseball interest you have should know the difference in rating (and risk) between 17 and 18 year old high schoolers taken in the draft and pending 16 year old international signings (who were scouted and agreed to deals as 14 and 15 year olds) - as a for instance.

Somewhere in there, I suppose I’m supposed to be insulted but your ramblings don’t really do that for me.(I don’t even know what the last paragraph is supposed to mean)

And you are sorely mistaken if you think those players are hamstringing Elias.  The Orioles can clearly and obviously spend more money than 60M.  So, if you want to say within the framework of only having a 60M payroll sure Elias is hamstrung by them.  However, the 60M payroll threshold is obviously set by ownership and that is truly what Elias is hamstrung by.

Also, Cobb is a productive player when he is healthy.  He may not be worth 10-13M but has not far off from that.  When a player is producing for you and the salary isn’t that exorbitant, he’s not really hamstringing you.

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1 hour ago, AZRon said:

 

Wildcard:

I think it's fair to "assume" that, if the contract terms for annual salary were adjusted proportionately for the shortened season, then, all other contract terms were adjusted in the same manner (with the possible exception of the deferred accrual for 2020).

I will not argue the point because I don't know.

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Eddie Cicotte : You said if I won 30 games this year there'd be a $10,000 bonus.

Charles Comiskey : So?

Eddie Cicotte : I think you owe it to me.

Charles Comiskey : Harry, how many games did Mr. Cicotte win for us this year?

Harry : 29, sir.

Eddie Cicotte : You had Kid bench me for two whole weeks in August. I missed five starts.

Charles Comiskey : We had to rest your arm for the series.

Eddie Cicotte : I would have won at least two of those games. You knew that.

Charles Comiskey : I have to keep the best interests of the club in mind, Eddie.

Eddie Cicotte : I think you owe me that bonus.

Charles Comiskey : 29 is not 30, Eddie. You will get only the money you deserve.

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