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Orioles Lose Zach Pop and Grey Fenter in Rule Five

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Listened to an interview with Scott McGregor today.   He said that the O's Analytic department did not like Zach Pop throwing the power sinker.  He called it a Jim Johnson power sinker.  So they told him to not throw the sinker and instead throw the four steamer.

So I am thinking that this had to be before the arm troubles.   And when he is recovering they don't protect him from the Rule 5 because they do not think his arm will not hold up throwing his best pitch the power sinker.    Is that a good guess?  The sinker can be very effective but also pretty hard of the arm.  Johnson did well with it for a while then he had trouble.

https://pressboxonline.com/2021/03/16/talking-baseball-with-former-orioles-lhp-scott-mcgregor/

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I think it has more to do with the O's not valuing someone who relies on a 2 seam fastball as much as someone who uses the 4 seamer.

I've don't recall seeing any evidence that the 2 seam fastball is harder on the arm.

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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it has more to do with the O's not valuing someone who relies on a 2 seam fastball as much as someone who uses the 4 seamer.

I've don't recall seeing any evidence that the 2 seam fastball is harder on the arm.

Grip doesn't matter but he may pronate his arm differently.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Listened to an interview with Scott McGregor today.   He said that the O's Analytic department did not like Zach Pop throwing the power sinker.  He called it a Jim Johnson power sinker.  So they told him to not throw the sinker and instead throw the four steamer.

So I am thinking that this had to be before the arm troubles.   And when he is recovering they don't protect him from the Rule 5 because they do not think his arm will not hold up throwing his best pitch the power sinker.    Is that a good guess?  The sinker can be very effective but also pretty hard of the arm.  Johnson did well with it for a while then he had trouble.

https://pressboxonline.com/2021/03/16/talking-baseball-with-former-orioles-lhp-scott-mcgregor/

Scroll to 33.20

Yes, that was a very interesting comment. They did something similar to Brenan Hanifee and we saw the terrible year he had 2019 after looking like a breakout guy in 2018. 

They certainly seems to be looking for a very particular type of pitchers with the high spin 4-seam fastballs, but I still think guys with good sinkers that get ground balls can be good as well. 

It seems like they basically were willing to risk losing Pop because he doesn't fit the mold they are looking for and it will be very interesting to follow this line of thinking and see how successful these guys are in the big leagues and who go to other teams and find success.

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20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you trade him at 25 or do you extend him?  Franco at 28 is probably more valuable than what you got back.

I think it would depend on the money which assuming he's elite (or the conversation we're having is pointless) would be 300 million or higher then I think you have to trade him. I would look at it a little differently if I could afford one guy at elite $ and the majority of my team is cheap. But, they will begin to be expensive as they go through arbitration. If he's elite and two years away from FA, I don't see him signing below market. I think it also depends on what you have as a replacement. In this scenario I am assuming since my system is cray loaded due to previous trades and smart PD that I have a replacement that gets me within 2-3 wins or the pieces to get one. Then obviously the return. If you can get 4 prospects, 1 top 25 another top 100, then I think I would trade him. Paying one player that much money rarely works out for small to mid-market teams. 

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8 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Janis and Valdez say hello.

I think you know that they are one trick-pitch pitchers that would not even be pitching in A-Ball if they took those pitches away. Apples and oranges.

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My only point is that Elias is open to having other types of pitchers.  You’re right though, they’re pitches are much more different from a four seam fastball than a two seamer.

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Kim Ng is pretty savvy - we might not be seeing Pop returned. If we were able to carry that one terrible pitcher for a year (can't even remember his name now) during the Buck years, Miami can certainly find a way to keep Pop. 

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Pop was 96-98 last night though he did give up three hard hits (two were actual hits) in his one inning of work. Statcast classified his fastball as a 2-seamer with an average of 2427 spin.

I doubt an arm like that is returned.

If someone asked me who would I rather have, Pop or Tyler Wells. I'd take Pop today and twice on Sunday. 

It appears Elias made a mistake here in leaving Pop unprotected while protecting Goudeau (who he already DFA'd and lost), Lakins and a 31-year old Sulser.

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Pop was 96-98 last night though he did give up three hard hits (two were actual hits) in his one inning of work. Statcast classified his fastball as a 2-seamer with an average of 2427 spin.

I doubt an arm like that is returned.

If someone asked me who would I rather have, Pop or Tyler Wells. I'd take Pop today and twice on Sunday. 

It appears Elias made a mistake here in leaving Pop unprotected while protecting Goudeau (who he already DFA'd and lost), Lakins and a 31-year old Sulser.

Have to agree.    I didn’t scream about it at the time because I didn’t know how Pop’s rehab was going or much about the Rule 5 crop available, but I wasn’t comfortable with the decision then and now it looks pretty foolish.   

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Pop was 96-98 last night though he did give up three hard hits (two were actual hits) in his one inning of work. Statcast classified his fastball as a 2-seamer with an average of 2427 spin.

I doubt an arm like that is returned.

If someone asked me who would I rather have, Pop or Tyler Wells. I'd take Pop today and twice on Sunday. 

It appears Elias made a mistake here in leaving Pop unprotected while protecting Goudeau (who he already DFA'd and lost), Lakins and a 31-year old Sulser.

Your last paragraph is the key.  The stupidity to keep those guys over Pop is amazing to me.  Elias hasn’t made many mistakes but that one was just flat out dumb.

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