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Trade Bait 2021

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2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Valaika was also a team worse -6 in Outs above average playing primarily at 2B and SS, so im not sure what trade value he has with that kind of defense. My guess is very little trade value even if he has another .791 OPS season. 

How about OAA for 2B and SS  other years?  One year is not that telling.

 

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7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How about OAA for 2B and SS  other years?  One year is not that telling.

 

But his .791 OPS in one 60-game season is telling?   You can’t really have it both ways.  

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But his .791 OPS in one 60-game season is telling?   You can’t really have it both ways.  

Sure I can.   As I have said repeatedly,  whenever  Valaika gets regular at bats he  hits well.  It happened in 2017 and it happened in 2020.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Sure I can.   As I have said repeatedly,  whenever  Valaika gets regular at bats he  hits well.  It happened in 2017 and it happened in 2020.

A scientist says to a frog, “jump frog jump” and he does.   He cuts off one of the legs, says “jump frog jump” and the frog jumps a little less.   He keeps doing this and the frog jumps less far each time.   Finally he cuts off the final leg and says “jump frog jump” and the frog doesn’t jump.   The scientist writes in his journal: “I have concluded that when you cut off all four legs of a frog, he goes deaf!”

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I don’t want to discount that Valaika can be a decent hitter if given regular playing time.   I think he earned his shot with his play last year.   But he’ll have to keep proving it; I’m not ready to draw big conclusions based on the 52 games he played last year.   And I’m pretty darned sure he’s far below average at SS; more passable at 2B.

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Even in his minor league career he was 292 SS, 142 2B, 87 3B - he's an infielder but not a SS.

Someone had to go there when Iglesias' legs went, but B-Ref had him at -22 and -25 on their seasonal annualizers of his 24 games.

For the SS position I think there are more SS than musical chairs so am setting my expectation on what feels like the Freddy Galvis inevitability.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Sure I can.   As I have said repeatedly,  whenever  Valaika gets regular at bats he  hits well.  It happened in 2017 and it happened in 2020.

Except for the minors.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t want to discount that Valaika can be a decent hitter if given regular playing time.   I think he earned his shot with his play last year.   But he’ll have to keep proving it; I’m not ready to draw big conclusions based on the 52 games he played last year.   And I’m pretty darned sure he’s far below average at SS; more passable at 2B.

I agree.

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

Even in his minor league career he was 292 SS, 142 2B, 87 3B - he's an infielder but not a SS.

Someone had to go there when Iglesias' legs went, but B-Ref had him at -22 and -25 on their seasonal annualizers of his 24 games.

For the SS position I think there are more SS than musical chairs so am setting my expectation on what feels like the Freddy Galvis inevitability.

Galvis is preferable but not inevitable until his salary drops to 2.5-3m.

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52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He was not in the minors in 2020.

You said when he gets regular at bats, he has proven he can hit.  That’s not true unless you want to talk about SSS.  Throughout his pro career, that’s not accurate.

Now, could he be a late bloomer?  It’s possible. You never know...but he’s far more likely to be DFA’d or not even make the team than he is to be a solid regular player.

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12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t want to discount that Valaika can be a decent hitter if given regular playing time.   I think he earned his shot with his play last year.   But he’ll have to keep proving it; I’m not ready to draw big conclusions based on the 52 games he played last year.   And I’m pretty darned sure he’s far below average at SS; more passable at 2B.

I’d like to see Valaika get regular at bats somewhere this year to see if he can repeat his success. I just don’t want it to be SS or a move around the diamond type role. Let him focus on 2B and know he’s going to play most days.

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23 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I think Cobb and Severino should be shopped as heavily as possible at the deadline with the Orioles willing to eat as much of Cobb's salary as necessary. After all, you either keep him and pay him or you can trade him, get a prospect and pay him. If you're going to pay him anyway and the Orioles aren't going anywhere in 2021, it still makes sense to get prospect as long as the Orioles have at least someone to take the ball. If the O's can give those innings to Baumann, Lowther, Smith, Bradish, etc it's worth it.

As for Severino, if Rutschman does come up mid-season, Severino is redundant (or Sisco if you can move him easier).

Beyond that, however, I think any other move will yield little. I could see a relief arm or two go or maybe Sanchez, but I don't expect much back.

 

I don't feel like ownership has ever heard the concept of a sunk cost, but whatever.

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Most likely to get traded,

1.  Fry - Could be a dominant lefty specialist, for a team that could put him in that role. 
 

2.  Armstrong - Already in Arb. I think we’d take just about anything for him at the deadline. Potential to be a cheap reliever for a surprise team. 
 

3. Severino - already in Arb. Everyone is always looking for catching upgrades.  We could be looking at a DFA situation if we don’t trade. 
 

4. Mancini - a lot depends on how he produces. It will be very sad, but if he’s an .800 OPS guy, I think we will take whatever we can get. 
 

5. Cobb - a lot of salary. At best he’d bring a Cashner like return with us covering a portion of his salary. 
 

Overall, I don’t see us bringing in too much in the way of top 30 prospects, even if all the above players are dealt.  We can finally get the payroll down to close to no Arb players(minus Davis). We’ll continue to build SP depth while looking at MIF depth of the future. There will be no earth shattering prospects. Just more of the same top 25-50 level players coming back. 

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