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DJ Stewart vs Chris Shaw

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1 hour ago, SteveA said:

You probably didn't laugh in The Naked Gun where the tiger mauled the outfielder either.  And Mel Allen said "How About That!"

Was anyone actually injured?

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12 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Thanks for confirming what I suspected that Shaw did time in the PCL. Meanwhile Stewart played games in Norfolk, where it’s a very hitter unfriendly. 

Harbor Park was not hitter unfriendly in 2019.   Prior to that it was.  The change to the major league ball made an enormous difference.

International League: .709 OPS in 2018, .787 in 2019.

Norfolk Tides: .701 OPS in 2018, .769 in 2019

DJ Stewart: .716 OPS at Norfolk in 2018, .944 in 2019

Needless to say, the PCL remains the more hitter friendly AAA environment.   

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I guess I'm okay giving Stewart some MLB reps at Yusniel's expense - the very cold and very hot runs a little spicier than regular meh.

I think I think its mostly Traber, and that the 0-for-30 or whatever it was was enough for MLB pitchers to nakedly challenge ala Spring Training Chris Davis for awhile.   To his credit, it got to a point where he started punishing those fools, as any cromulent AAAA slugger ought to once pitchers get to that point of, "This guy's batting average is literally .000".   He earned some respect.

The playing time allocation decision matrix could change if MLB slows to Memorial Day, but minors start and Yusniel is like Player of the Month or something.

Because baseball, and because the guys who really have to try their best in ST scrounging for jobs can momentarily outplay established guys warming up, I fully expect the Jake Fox things to happen, and for Shaw and Stewart to outhit Santander and Mountcastle in Florida.

Official rooting post for them to be the next generation of Muncy's - everybody's working their MVP Machine.

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21 hours ago, Frobby said:

Harbor Park was not hitter unfriendly in 2019.   Prior to that it was.  The change to the major league ball made an enormous difference.

International League: .709 OPS in 2018, .787 in 2019.

Norfolk Tides: .701 OPS in 2018, .769 in 2019

DJ Stewart: .716 OPS at Norfolk in 2018, .944 in 2019

Needless to say, the PCL remains the more hitter friendly AAA environment.   

I don't think there's much question that the PCL is more hitter friendly than the International League.

But the original premise of all of this discussion was relative comparison of Shaw and Stewart. Particularly as hitters.

And while the difference in leagues makes that a little tricky... it doesn't make it impossible. The best way to do that is to look at the each player's performance relative to the other players IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE.

We know that Shaw and Stewart are products of the same draft, and were at a comparable state of development in 2018. And in fact this is the year in which they have a significant enough number of AAA at bats to make a direct comparison meaningful.

If we look at HR's in 2018....

Shaw had 24 (tied for 7th in the PCL)...

Stewart had 12 (tied to 25th in the IL)

If we look at HR's per AB in 2018....

Shaw had a HR every 16 AB's (4th in the PCL)...

Stewart had a HR every 35 AB's (outside of the top 40 in the IL)

If we look at OPS in 2018

Shaw had a .813 (28th in the PCL)...

Stewart had a .716 (28th in the IL)

I think it's fair to say that both of these players are being compared as hitters.. as neither is a flash with the glove.

My point isn't to suggest that Stewart is a bad hitter, or that he doesn't have potential. It is simply to suggest that there is enough information available to suggest that Shaw may be an even better hitter. And that attempts to dismiss this possibility with a wave of the hand because "Pacific Coast League" is simply an appeal to traditional lore... and does not consider that Shaw and Stewart's differences can be normalized by comparing them to players in their own respective leagues.

And if we compare them each to players in their own league in 2018 (the most useful comparable data available) Shaw is significantly better.

Stewart has arguably had some modest success in the MLs. (and it is honestly pretty modest). Shaw has had none. (although I don't think it's reasonable to draw any real conclusions from a total of 76 ML AB's.

I'd like to see what he can do.

 

 

Edited by owknows
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30 minutes ago, owknows said:

I don't think there's much question that the PCL is more hitter friendly than the International League.

But the original premise of all of this discussion was relative comparison of Shaw and Stewart. Particularly as hitters.

And while the difference in leagues makes that a little tricky... it doesn't make it impossible. The best way to do that is to look at the each player's performance relative to the other players IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE.

We know that Shaw and Stewart are products of the same draft, and were at a comparable state of development in 2018. And in fact this is the year in which they have a significant enough number of AAA at bats to make a direct comparison meaningful.

If we look at HR's in 2018....

Shaw had 24 (tied for 7th in the PCL)...

Stewart had 12 (tied to 25th in the IL)

If we look at HR's per AB in 2018....

Shaw had a HR every 16 AB's (4th in the PCL)...

Stewart had a HR every 35 AB's (outside of the top 40 in the IL)

If we look at OPS in 2018

Shaw had a .813 (28th in the PCL)...

Stewart had a .716 (28th in the IL)

I think it's fair to say that both of these players are being compared as hitters.. as neither is a flash with the glove.

My point isn't to suggest that Stewart is a bad hitter, or that he doesn't have potential. It is simply to suggest that there is enough information available to suggest that Shaw may be an even better hitter. And that attempts to dismiss this possibility with a wave of the hand because "Pacific Coast League" is simply an appeal to traditional lore... and does not consider that Shaw and Stewart's differences can be normalized by comparing them to players in their own respective leagues.

And if we compare them each to players in their own league in 2018 (the most useful comparable data available) Shaw is significantly better.

Stewart has arguably had some modest success in the MLs. (and it is honestly pretty modest). Shaw has had none. (although I don't think it's reasonable to draw any real conclusions from a total of 76 ML AB's.

I'd like to see what he can do.

 

 

Why is 2018 more relevant than 2019, I’m not sure I understand the logic here?

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1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Why is 2018 more relevant than 2019, I’m not sure I understand the logic here?

In short, D J Stewart lacked the requisite 2019 AAA plate appearances to qualify to be considered in the Offical International League Metrics.

And I was comparing their performance in their own leagues, so I used 2018. (pre ML baseball)

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?y=2019&t=l_bat&lid=117&sid=l117

 

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7 hours ago, owknows said:

In short, D J Stewart lacked the requisite 2019 AAA plate appearances to qualify to be considered in the Offical International League Metrics.

And I was comparing their performance in their own leagues, so I used 2018. (pre ML baseball)

 

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?y=2019&t=l_bat&lid=117&sid=l117

 

Let’s use wOBA, which is adjusted for league context.

2016 Stewart .340 low A, .384 hi A; Shaw .389 hi A, .325 AA

2017 Stewart .383 AA; Shaw .396 AA, .364 AAA

2018 Stewart .321 AAA, Shaw .350 AAA

2019 Stewart .401 AAA; Shaw .385 AAA

Shaw generally advanced more quickly through the minors and performed better, after adjusting for league context.   But Stewart caught up in 2019 and had the slightly better performance.    

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s use wOBA, which is adjusted for league context.

2016 Stewart .340 low A, .384 hi A; Shaw .389 hi A, .325 AA

2017 Stewart .383 AA; Shaw .396 AA, .364 AAA

2018 Stewart .321 AAA, Shaw .350 AAA

2019 Stewart .401 AAA; Shaw .385 AAA

Shaw generally advanced more quickly through the minors and performed better, after adjusting for league context.   But Stewart caught up in 2019 and had the slightly better performance.    

That Stewart plays a passable corner OF is a huge advantage to him in this comparison though, at least IMO. Baseball reference seems to have him as a little below average while Fangraphs/DRS has him at slightly below average as well (-2 runs in ~600 MLB OF innings; ~5-6 runs over a full season). 

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s use wOBA, which is adjusted for league context.

2016 Stewart .340 low A, .384 hi A; Shaw .389 hi A, .325 AA

2017 Stewart .383 AA; Shaw .396 AA, .364 AAA

2018 Stewart .321 AAA, Shaw .350 AAA

2019 Stewart .401 AAA; Shaw .385 AAA

Shaw generally advanced more quickly through the minors and performed better, after adjusting for league context.   But Stewart caught up in 2019 and had the slightly better performance.    

Maybe... or maybe Stewart had a better MiL 2019 in the 200-some at bats he had there.

The full body of work of the two shows an edge for Shaw.

A fragment of a Minor League season shows an edge for Stewart.

The minimal ML time both have had shows a significant edge for Stewart... but I would once again hesitate to draw conclusions from Shaw's 70-some ML AB's

I guess my point in all of this is that I don't understand the dismissal of Shaw.

He has been arguably at least Stewart's equal

 

 

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47 minutes ago, owknows said:

Maybe... or maybe Stewart had a better MiL 2019 in the 200-some at bats he had there.

The full body of work of the two shows an edge for Shaw.

A fragment of a Minor League season shows an edge for Stewart.

The minimal ML time both have had shows a significant edge for Stewart... but I would once again hesitate to draw conclusions from Shaw's 70-some ML AB's

I guess my point in all of this is that I don't understand the dismissal of Shaw.

He has been arguably at least Stewart's equal

I think it’s a completely open question which one will be the better major league hitter.    There’s plenty of evidence that it could be Shaw.    Let them both battle for a spot.   

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9 hours ago, owknows said:

Maybe... or maybe Stewart had a better MiL 2019 in the 200-some at bats he had there.

The full body of work of the two shows an edge for Shaw.

A fragment of a Minor League season shows an edge for Stewart.

The minimal ML time both have had shows a significant edge for Stewart... but I would once again hesitate to draw conclusions from Shaw's 70-some ML AB's

I guess my point in all of this is that I don't understand the dismissal of Shaw.

He has been arguably at least Stewart's equal

 

 

If you mean by dismissal the fact that he was DFA'd,  both players best position is DH.   Shaw was in the NL which may not have the DH this coming season.  That is my guess.

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8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s a completely open question which one will be the better major league hitter.    There’s plenty of evidence that it could be Shaw.    Let them both battle for a spot.   

That is the same conclusion I came to in the OP.

However there is another player in the battle.  Ramon Urias.    If Hyde wants an all right-handed lineup vs lefties, Urias could get the nod at DH.    This is prior to Diaz being promoted.  And Urias can also play 2B.   Whoever wins the battle better hit well because they are the likely player to be sent down when Diaz is promoted.

If Mancini is traded mid season, that would open a spot for one of these players at DH.  Injuries also open playing time.  All three have options.

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Even if Stewart never meaningfully contributes to the Orioles in the future, he can always say he hit two homers in a win against the Yanks, and homered in four straight MLB game. That’s pretty cool. 

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