ZiPS O’s projections 2021

[Philip]

Why use ERA instead of FIP?

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

specifically the bit about Milone. The team was 2-4 in his starts. He largely pitched fine, but the statement is an odd one. 

Clearly he didn’t look carefully.   I’ll admit I was surprised to see that the O’s went 2-4 in Milone’s starts.  I think the main reason for the Orioles’ better performance this year was (1) a hot start with the bat by a lot of players, and (2) a decent bullpen performance.   The offense collapsed pretty badly the last 2-3 weeks or so.   

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Philip said:

Why use ERA instead of FIP?

Because ERA is what you actually did..FIP is more along the lines of a future predictive tool.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because ERA is what you actually did..FIP is more along the lines of a future predictive tool.

In theory, the difference between ERA and FIP comes down to defense and luck.   When it comes to projecting the two, nobody can project luck.   So, it seems to me that in projections, the difference between ERA and FIP should boil down to how good the defense is expected to be.   But looking at the O’s projections, in some cases ERA is expected to be a little higher than FIP, in other cases a little lower.   It’s not really far off in most cases, so I don’t really know what to make of the variances from one player to the next.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In theory, the difference between ERA and FIP comes down to defense and luck.   When it comes to projecting the two, nobody can project luck.   So, it seems to me that in projections, the difference between ERA and FIP should boil down to how good the defense is expected to be.   But looking at the O’s projections, in some cases ERA is expected to be a little higher than FIP, in other cases a little lower.   It’s not really far off in most cases, so I don’t really know what to make of the variances from one player to the next.   

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

It's pretty darn hard to have sustained success that way.

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

I think Frobbys point was more about the differences going in different directions. If all of a teams pitchers play in front of the same defenses and one assumes “luck” to be random, the expectation is that the over/underperformance of FIP would all be in the same direction and of similar-ish magnitude. 
 

im guessing that the projections allow for some demonstrated ability for an individual pitcher to diverge from FIP regarding ERA, which would explain some of the above. Not sure exactly on that front, though. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's pretty darn hard to have sustained success that way.

Right..which is why FIP is predictive.  It says you can’t be that good long term without being good in those areas.  That’s not accurate but it’s the basic premise.

But, going back to Phillips question, you wouldn’t use FIP in terms of a 1 year projection.  That’s not the use for it, at least within the context of what ZIPs is doing here.  ERA provides that for you.  

[Yardball85]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

A few of the pitchers:

Means 4.90 ERA

Akin 5.00

Cobb 5.27

Kremer 5.46

Tanner Scott is the only pitcher on the whole staff ZiPS projects at a sub-4.00 ERA, at 3.70.

 

The offensive projections seem a lot more realistic than the pitching projections, but we'll see.  Kremer and Akin looked good, but it was obviously SSS.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

The offensive projections seem a lot more realistic than the pitching projections, but we'll see.  Kremer and Akin looked good, but it was obviously SSS.

Yeah, I think the jury’s out on both Kremer and Akin.   Both finished on a rough note, so we’ll see.   

[Camden_yardbird]

If these projections are accurate I question whether the Orioles have a single player on their roster who will be a part of the next contending team.

That said, this projection system is pretty useless without the context of other projections and why they have relative differences.

[OrioleDog]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

The offense collapsed pretty badly the last 2-3 weeks or so.  

Some of why I'm so anxious to see if Adley and Yusniel can get to work figuring out how to touch Gerrit Cole's pitches is this.

Clay Davenport's pushed out his initial projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

...and only the Orioles and Tigers are under 700 runs in the AL.   Obviously its doubtful any substantially good hitter not currently in the organization is showing up anytime this offseason, whereas Detroit more likely to backup Mize, Manning, Skubal some.   We're not giving 1500 PA to Martin/Yolmer/Ruiz of course, but their replacements won't be juggernauts.

FWIW Clay's EqA forecast is higher for Stewart than Mountcastle.  I think BB for both hitters and pitchers carry a little extra weight in his system.

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, andrewochs615 said:

When was the last time they had a projection of one of our starters with under a 4.50 era? 

Since 2015 the Orioles have had five pitchers qualify for the ERA title with an ERA under 4.50.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Some of why I'm so anxious to see if Adley and Yusniel can get to work figuring out how to touch Gerrit Cole's pitches is this.

Clay Davenport's pushed out his initial projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

...and only the Orioles and Tigers are under 700 runs in the AL.   Obviously its doubtful any substantially good hitter not currently in the organization is showing up anytime this offseason, whereas Detroit more likely to backup Mize, Manning, Skubal some.   We're not giving 1500 PA to Martin/Yolmer/Ruiz of course, but their replacements won't be juggernauts.

FWIW Clay's EqA forecast is higher for Stewart than Mountcastle.  I think BB for both hitters and pitchers carry a little extra weight in his system.

Eyeballing the Davenport projections, they seem very pitcher-friendly.   Every single pitcher on our staff has an ERA under 5.00, and by the same token the OPS projections for our offense are very low.   

His projection of 68 wins is about the same as ZiPS I think, and probably in the right ballpark.