Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Frobby

ZiPS O’s projections 2021

Recommended Posts

58 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

specifically the bit about Milone. The team was 2-4 in his starts. He largely pitched fine, but the statement is an odd one. 

Clearly he didn’t look carefully.   I’ll admit I was surprised to see that the O’s went 2-4 in Milone’s starts.  I think the main reason for the Orioles’ better performance this year was (1) a hot start with the bat by a lot of players, and (2) a decent bullpen performance.   The offense collapsed pretty badly the last 2-3 weeks or so.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because ERA is what you actually did..FIP is more along the lines of a future predictive tool.

In theory, the difference between ERA and FIP comes down to defense and luck.   When it comes to projecting the two, nobody can project luck.   So, it seems to me that in projections, the difference between ERA and FIP should boil down to how good the defense is expected to be.   But looking at the O’s projections, in some cases ERA is expected to be a little higher than FIP, in other cases a little lower.   It’s not really far off in most cases, so I don’t really know what to make of the variances from one player to the next.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In theory, the difference between ERA and FIP comes down to defense and luck.   When it comes to projecting the two, nobody can project luck.   So, it seems to me that in projections, the difference between ERA and FIP should boil down to how good the defense is expected to be.   But looking at the O’s projections, in some cases ERA is expected to be a little higher than FIP, in other cases a little lower.   It’s not really far off in most cases, so I don’t really know what to make of the variances from one player to the next.   

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

It's pretty darn hard to have sustained success that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s more than just luck.  FIP measures the things you can control..BB, K and HR.  You can be successful without K’ing a lot of hitters.  You can get the job done if you give up a lot of homers.

Your ERA can still be good if you do one or 2 of those things at a mediocre level.

I think Frobbys point was more about the differences going in different directions. If all of a teams pitchers play in front of the same defenses and one assumes “luck” to be random, the expectation is that the over/underperformance of FIP would all be in the same direction and of similar-ish magnitude. 
 

im guessing that the projections allow for some demonstrated ability for an individual pitcher to diverge from FIP regarding ERA, which would explain some of the above. Not sure exactly on that front, though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's pretty darn hard to have sustained success that way.

Right..which is why FIP is predictive.  It says you can’t be that good long term without being good in those areas.  That’s not accurate but it’s the basic premise.

But, going back to Phillips question, you wouldn’t use FIP in terms of a 1 year projection.  That’s not the use for it, at least within the context of what ZIPs is doing here.  ERA provides that for you.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Frobby said:

A few of the pitchers:

Means 4.90 ERA

Akin 5.00

Cobb 5.27

Kremer 5.46

Tanner Scott is the only pitcher on the whole staff ZiPS projects at a sub-4.00 ERA, at 3.70.

 

The offensive projections seem a lot more realistic than the pitching projections, but we'll see.  Kremer and Akin looked good, but it was obviously SSS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

The offensive projections seem a lot more realistic than the pitching projections, but we'll see.  Kremer and Akin looked good, but it was obviously SSS.

Yeah, I think the jury’s out on both Kremer and Akin.   Both finished on a rough note, so we’ll see.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If these projections are accurate I question whether the Orioles have a single player on their roster who will be a part of the next contending team.

That said, this projection system is pretty useless without the context of other projections and why they have relative differences.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Frobby said:

The offense collapsed pretty badly the last 2-3 weeks or so.  

Some of why I'm so anxious to see if Adley and Yusniel can get to work figuring out how to touch Gerrit Cole's pitches is this.

Clay Davenport's pushed out his initial projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

...and only the Orioles and Tigers are under 700 runs in the AL.   Obviously its doubtful any substantially good hitter not currently in the organization is showing up anytime this offseason, whereas Detroit more likely to backup Mize, Manning, Skubal some.   We're not giving 1500 PA to Martin/Yolmer/Ruiz of course, but their replacements won't be juggernauts.

FWIW Clay's EqA forecast is higher for Stewart than Mountcastle.  I think BB for both hitters and pitchers carry a little extra weight in his system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, andrewochs615 said:

When was the last time they had a projection of one of our starters with under a 4.50 era? 

Since 2015 the Orioles have had five pitchers qualify for the ERA title with an ERA under 4.50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Some of why I'm so anxious to see if Adley and Yusniel can get to work figuring out how to touch Gerrit Cole's pitches is this.

Clay Davenport's pushed out his initial projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

...and only the Orioles and Tigers are under 700 runs in the AL.   Obviously its doubtful any substantially good hitter not currently in the organization is showing up anytime this offseason, whereas Detroit more likely to backup Mize, Manning, Skubal some.   We're not giving 1500 PA to Martin/Yolmer/Ruiz of course, but their replacements won't be juggernauts.

FWIW Clay's EqA forecast is higher for Stewart than Mountcastle.  I think BB for both hitters and pitchers carry a little extra weight in his system.

Eyeballing the Davenport projections, they seem very pitcher-friendly.   Every single pitcher on our staff has an ERA under 5.00, and by the same token the OPS projections for our offense are very low.   

His projection of 68 wins is about the same as ZiPS I think, and probably in the right ballpark.   
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Minor League Depth Chart

2021 Prospect Power Rankings

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Uggh, I just found out my orioleshangout.com email is not working which is EXACTLY why we're in need of a regular system admin. If interested, please email me your resume at tonypente@gmail.com  Thanks  
    • Sam Haggerty will forever be the answer to a trivia question. I bet he’s so proud.
    • I will say after strikeout filled spring training, it's not a good sign to see him strike out in 5 of his first 10 AA PAs. I'll be honest, he has huge holes in that upper cut swing and I'm not sure why this hasn't been addressed at this point. They had all spring and alt camp to watch this swing and it appears to be a one plane upper cut swing with lots of holes.  He swings through a lot of pitches both fastball and curveballs. Maybe it's a timing issue, but his timing must have been off all spring so far because he was underwhelming in spring training and now has started off with a lot of miss. I've watched his PAs and they have mainly been against guys throwing 93 mph and above. Just something to watch as he continues.
    • Who knows, maybe the team picking second will go underslot! 
    • He turned a nice 3-6-3 DP in yesterday's game. Looked natural over there so its good to see he should have a place to play when they want to give him time off from catcher.
    • No, but he is literally paving his way every outing.  What he did yesterday was outstanding. This is pretty amazing.  The wild pitch not withstanding, it seems that the only thing missing was perhaps doing it in fewer pitches. I will say this, yesterday is a perfect example of why I am enjoying this year.  No there will be no WS for the Orioles this year.  But we have crossed through the channel of the horribleness that comes with a true rebuild.  From here we will get glimpses of better days as we see a foundation built.  I care not whether Severino continues and see no reason to bemoan him at all.  He is but a place holder as many of the current Orioles are.  I appreciate their efforts while we wait and I savor the days like yesterday.   John Means may not be extended or even kept for 4 years.  But he is a piece and he is going to either help us as a cornerstone or he is going to cost someone an a kings ransom.  That decision is not for me and not for today.  But TommyPickles asks a valid question.  John Means is not an "Ace" because he threw a No-Hitter yesterday.  But with every outing this year he is doing the work to earn the title.  Its fun.  I am loving it!!!
    • I doubt it will seem like that four years from now. Though the top 4 picks does seem to be coalescing around those 4. Still two months to go, a lot can change.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...