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The Shortstop Market

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Making Luis Urias expendable for us to unite the Urias Brothers?   Or Arcia as Young Galvis?

Robertson never counted as a SS to me.

Off topic, I don't know what this Benintendi thing is, but should we be calling on Devers/Xander.

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On 1/12/2021 at 2:18 PM, Yardball85 said:

Yeah, I heard Robertson was going to give us a .500 OBP out of the leadoff spot and GG defense.  Oh well.  There's always 2022.

Do they even print physical playoff tickets going forward...?

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Phillies connected to Semien and Didi in today's scuttlebutt, so no great shock Segura no Plan A, but that would push Segura or Kingery into that Cronenworth super-sub role unless they have Kingery try CF again.   (Hays for Kingery?)

A's, Reds and Red Sox also called out in a Bowden tweet.  If you just Occam's Razor Didi Philly and Semien Oakland, then that leaves Andrelton teams with Red in their names having weird offseasons (Benintendi for Now Pitching I could understand) and/or requesting position changes before our path to Galvis maybe gets down to us and the Red loser.

 

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LeMahieu retention (Year 5 and 6 of that reported deal, plus Hendriks structure, say to me full NFL/NBA capology is a thing, at least to the extent of playing games to minimize penalties) gives Gleyber one more year there to start at least.   

By all means please oppose Peak Rutschman Teams with age 36-37 LeMahieu.

That Phillies have even let their name be connected to Galvis tells me Dombrowski's evaluation of Segura finished, they are in.

I wonder if Segura and a recent 1st round pick might be had for a PTBNL Cozart-style.  2/30 left so nay, two first-round picks.   Bryce probably wants a reliever, not an expensive super sub.   Dombrowski vs. better Mets, regular Braves, Marlins young pitching, Juan Soto should be a good show.

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Correa looking for an arbitration win to nip Baez.  Doing rounding for all fractional millions but exact 0.5's, last year of club control prices for the Big Five run:

Lindor 22

Story 18.5  (settled previously on a 2-year arb buyout for 2020-2021 signed 1.24.2020, perhaps before covid fully appreciated)

Seager 14

Baez 12

Correa 10  (or leaping to 12.5 with an Arb win)

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Dombrowski having gotten Realmuto to take his $$$ I guess has bowed out on Semien, and Twins beat guy reporting his team and Brewers possible  suitors.   I can get kicking Jorge Polanco, Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias all off SS island, though with Lewis coming I guess Minnesota hoping for 2B like Red Sox did before Enrique.   Brewers and Twins would even give Galvis/Villar landing spots before us assuming OAK/PHI/CIN naturally ahead of us for the main three.    Galvis back to Philly seems likelier now.

 

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Semien accepts a position change, and I am just seeing LookinUp's Orioles Galvis thread.    That might be a wrap for the 2021 Oriole.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Minor league deal, $1.5 mm if he makes the Braves.   I remember you kind of liked him as a cheap option for the O’s.    

Yes,  In case Galvis price did not drop.  But it did.  So I am fine with Galvis.

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39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yes,  In case Galvis price did not drop.  But it did.  So I am fine with Galvis.

Agreed, at that price.  

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Perhaps a good night for Didi's agent with Semien pulling a good number, and Andrelton just a small ding from a somewhat unexpected bidder.    Assuming he and his client have let go of the hope anyone Didi's age is getting many years these days.   Maaaybe he can squeeze two coming off a good year.

Jorge Polanco seems well-qualified to be a super sub, but its insurance I guess if Cruz lost, then maybe Donaldson/Sano DH/1B, and Polanco tries 3B.

Correa arb decision still to come, and now Andrelton back out there with Big Five after World Series.   I think with Semien once you slip off iceberg you are probably off forever, though could be fun I guess if Jays start messing with Bichette.

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11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Yes,  In case Galvis price did not drop.  But it did.  So I am fine with Galvis.

It was always going to drop. (Although it’s not like we truly know what that price was to begin with)

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Didi back to Philly leaves Oakland and Cincinnati at the Villar (non-SS) best remaining option.

This report of Reds-Rays discussions around Willy Adames gives me the heebie jeebies, considering Reds seeming $$$ problems with Bradley non-tender, and curious Raisel trade.   They may have been saving $$$ for a shortstop without it working out.

I nearly feel like just let them have Galvis for a PTBNL now to try and stop a Rays arbitrage opportunity, but I guess we need to develop our pitchers.  I feel better Oakland at least wouldn't do something too dumb - they may even really like their Rule 5 guy.

Once Correa arb decision comes down, there will be about 10 fresh data points of what AAV today's market says for a Last Year before FA/Free Agent good shortstop.

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Except the Reds (please don't do something dumb for Willy Adames), the Andrus Oakland trade and Villar Mets signing nearly close this year's market.

Five Year Before FA AAV's: Lindor 22, Story 18.5, Seager 14, Baez 12, Correa 11.7

Five FA AAV's: Semien 18, Didi 14, Andrelton 10.5, Villar 3.5, Galvis 1.5

I looked at the Minor Leagues games played of 2021's shortstops, and saw just three instances of the player playing more than 20% of games off position: Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Erik Gonzalez and Paul DeJong.

While we wait to see if Henderson or Westburg are 90%+ shortstops, we do know already Adam Hall has played slightly MORE than 20% of his games off position in the South Atlantic League.   Obviously Bowie and Aberdeen give just two gigs for those three.   If Hall pushes one of those thoroughbreds off SS even a day or two a week, that'll be a decent clue to me whether the club thinks they can handle the position at the Major League level.

The opening of camps is a traditional extension season, and we'll see if Cohen can repeat the Mookie trick, or Click can get Correa signed long term.

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