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Just Regular

Ryan Mountcastle and some 24-year olds

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With apologies to Means and Santander, Mountcastle's debut was something of a tipping point to me as the first Guy I look to as a durably good contributor to the Next Good Team.   Like me, Hank Aaron and Adley Rutschman, he's a February birthday, and RMC will play his Age 24 season in 2021.   How well he holds up against his fellow 24's these next 6 years (5 if we don't tender final Arb) will somewhat drive how good the team is.

A few very likely superior 24's in 2021 and forever and ever: Devers, Albies, Gleyber, Hiura, Eloy

A group of 9 others: Kyle Tucker, Trent Grisham, Willi Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Victor Robles, Alec Bohm, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Nick Madrigal

With Mountcastle himself as the 10th guy, where do you peg him in that group?

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Good topic.    I have to say, that’s a pretty talented crop of position players.    I’d put Alvarez and Bohm at the top of your list of ten.    I’d probably put Tucker next.  Beyond that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot but I think they’ll all be productive major leaguers.    

The draft pedigree is interesting 

Bohm 1:3

Madrigal 1:4

Tucker 1:5

Grisham 1:15

Hayes 1:32

Mountcastle 1:36

Riley 1:41

Alvarez IFA $2 mm bonus

Castro IFA $825 k bonus 

Robles IFA $225 k bonus

FWIW, a typical age cohort will produce 15-20 position players who produce 10+ WAR in their careers.   15 players were listed in the OP.    It would be interesting to look back in 10 years and see how many of these players made that cut, and who made it who’s not on your list.  

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On 12/24/2020 at 11:41 AM, Just Regular said:

A few very likely superior 24's in 2021 and forever and ever: Devers, Albies, Gleyber, Hiura, Eloy

A group of 9 others: Kyle Tucker, Trent Grisham, Willi Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Victor Robles, Alec Bohm, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Nick Madrigal

With Mountcastle himself as the 10th guy, where do you peg him in that group?

By simple B-Ref WAR, Mountcastle 0.9 was 7th in the group of 10 where I guessed maybe it was a fair fight.

He also beat 3 out of 5 of his "betters" in counting stats, with an Eloy injury assist.    Austin Riley and Kyle Tucker were >2 wins better than anyone else in the group with 6-win seasons.

Alec Bohm's -1.3 WAR group worst.   He was a college slugger I bet our models would have considered, and Dombrowski is going to keep bedazzling that Bryce roster until something gives.    In Fantasyland I'm earmarking Mullins for that Gleyber/Jasson acquisition (perhaps 2021's pleasantest development Elias could place that call just to troll), and Bohm was so bad even Means feels like a lot.   Sports Guy already had it they want to upgrade middle infield, and they have $15M apiece on somewhat stale Segura and Didi.

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I’d like to see Mountcastle work on his defense since know he knows 1B is his home. Heck, maybe even had some more muscle since he doesn’t have to run around LF. 
 

Mountcastle’s defense will improve as the rest of the infield settles in. 

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5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d like to see Mountcastle work on his defense since know he knows 1B is his home. Heck, maybe even had some more muscle since he doesn’t have to run around LF. 
 

Mountcastle’s defense will improve as the rest of the infield settles in. 

RMC's defense improved significantly over the course of season.  Hopefully the upward trend continues, especially with a full offseason and spring training.  He'll never be a gold glover, but he could someday be considered average at least.

Regarding bulking up, I don't think it would help Ryan much at all anyways.  He's in very good shape, very explosive, and seems very durable with very little injury history.  No need to mess that up. 

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3 hours ago, yark14 said:

RMC's defense improved significantly over the course of season.  Hopefully the upward trend continues, especially with a full offseason and spring training.  He'll never be a gold glover, but he could someday be considered average at least.

Who’s to say he’ll never be a gold glover?   The bar’s not that high.   Both Rtot and Rdrs had him at -1 this year, barely below average.   No reason he can’t improve from there.    

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16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who’s to say he’ll never be a gold glover?   The bar’s not that high.   Both Rtot and Rdrs had him at -1 this year, barely below average.   No reason he can’t improve from there.    

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

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27 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

I’m with you.   

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2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

Agree. I really think he started to get comfy and confident over there. He made some nice plays, he's going to settle in just fine. 

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8 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

Yep, and that is another reason not to have him unnecessarily bulk up.  Keep him agile for the shifts against righties.

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12 hours ago, yark14 said:

Yep, and that is another reason not to have him unnecessarily bulk up.  Keep him agile for the shifts against righties.

He's got plenty of power already, but I think you'll see him naturally get bigger and stronger as he enters his physical prime. Just being around a professional sports team and the exercise and nutrition regimens available to him should result in additional muscle. 

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