Jump to content
Just Regular

Ryan Mountcastle and some 24-year olds

Recommended Posts

With apologies to Means and Santander, Mountcastle's debut was something of a tipping point to me as the first Guy I look to as a durably good contributor to the Next Good Team.   Like me, Hank Aaron and Adley Rutschman, he's a February birthday, and RMC will play his Age 24 season in 2021.   How well he holds up against his fellow 24's these next 6 years (5 if we don't tender final Arb) will somewhat drive how good the team is.

A few very likely superior 24's in 2021 and forever and ever: Devers, Albies, Gleyber, Hiura, Eloy

A group of 9 others: Kyle Tucker, Trent Grisham, Willi Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Victor Robles, Alec Bohm, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Nick Madrigal

With Mountcastle himself as the 10th guy, where do you peg him in that group?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good topic.    I have to say, that’s a pretty talented crop of position players.    I’d put Alvarez and Bohm at the top of your list of ten.    I’d probably put Tucker next.  Beyond that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot but I think they’ll all be productive major leaguers.    

The draft pedigree is interesting 

Bohm 1:3

Madrigal 1:4

Tucker 1:5

Grisham 1:15

Hayes 1:32

Mountcastle 1:36

Riley 1:41

Alvarez IFA $2 mm bonus

Castro IFA $825 k bonus 

Robles IFA $225 k bonus

FWIW, a typical age cohort will produce 15-20 position players who produce 10+ WAR in their careers.   15 players were listed in the OP.    It would be interesting to look back in 10 years and see how many of these players made that cut, and who made it who’s not on your list.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/24/2020 at 11:41 AM, Just Regular said:

A few very likely superior 24's in 2021 and forever and ever: Devers, Albies, Gleyber, Hiura, Eloy

A group of 9 others: Kyle Tucker, Trent Grisham, Willi Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Victor Robles, Alec Bohm, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Austin Riley, Nick Madrigal

With Mountcastle himself as the 10th guy, where do you peg him in that group?

By simple B-Ref WAR, Mountcastle 0.9 was 7th in the group of 10 where I guessed maybe it was a fair fight.

He also beat 3 out of 5 of his "betters" in counting stats, with an Eloy injury assist.    Austin Riley and Kyle Tucker were >2 wins better than anyone else in the group with 6-win seasons.

Alec Bohm's -1.3 WAR group worst.   He was a college slugger I bet our models would have considered, and Dombrowski is going to keep bedazzling that Bryce roster until something gives.    In Fantasyland I'm earmarking Mullins for that Gleyber/Jasson acquisition (perhaps 2021's pleasantest development Elias could place that call just to troll), and Bohm was so bad even Means feels like a lot.   Sports Guy already had it they want to upgrade middle infield, and they have $15M apiece on somewhat stale Segura and Didi.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d like to see Mountcastle work on his defense since know he knows 1B is his home. Heck, maybe even had some more muscle since he doesn’t have to run around LF. 
 

Mountcastle’s defense will improve as the rest of the infield settles in. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d like to see Mountcastle work on his defense since know he knows 1B is his home. Heck, maybe even had some more muscle since he doesn’t have to run around LF. 
 

Mountcastle’s defense will improve as the rest of the infield settles in. 

RMC's defense improved significantly over the course of season.  Hopefully the upward trend continues, especially with a full offseason and spring training.  He'll never be a gold glover, but he could someday be considered average at least.

Regarding bulking up, I don't think it would help Ryan much at all anyways.  He's in very good shape, very explosive, and seems very durable with very little injury history.  No need to mess that up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, yark14 said:

RMC's defense improved significantly over the course of season.  Hopefully the upward trend continues, especially with a full offseason and spring training.  He'll never be a gold glover, but he could someday be considered average at least.

Who’s to say he’ll never be a gold glover?   The bar’s not that high.   Both Rtot and Rdrs had him at -1 this year, barely below average.   No reason he can’t improve from there.    

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who’s to say he’ll never be a gold glover?   The bar’s not that high.   Both Rtot and Rdrs had him at -1 this year, barely below average.   No reason he can’t improve from there.    

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

I’m with you.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

Agree. I really think he started to get comfy and confident over there. He made some nice plays, he's going to settle in just fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm really excited about Mountcastle's raw power. I think his peak home run numbers could be really impressive. I think a 45 homer year (or two or three) is a realistic possibility. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I like the idea of having a former left-side-of-the-infield glove at 1st base. I think he'll get better as the position becomes more second-nature to him. Yes, he was a failed prospect defensively at SS and 3b, but he played at a high enough level there in lower levels to guess that he's got good footwork, mechanics, and athletic ability to do well at 1st. I think his early experience as a 3bman really helped Davis grow into being a good 1bman at his peak, and I have similar hopes for Mountcastle. 

Yep, and that is another reason not to have him unnecessarily bulk up.  Keep him agile for the shifts against righties.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, yark14 said:

Yep, and that is another reason not to have him unnecessarily bulk up.  Keep him agile for the shifts against righties.

He's got plenty of power already, but I think you'll see him naturally get bigger and stronger as he enters his physical prime. Just being around a professional sports team and the exercise and nutrition regimens available to him should result in additional muscle. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Minor League Depth Chart

2021 Prospect Power Rankings

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • He only pitched 31 innings. How impressive could he be. I’d say this was another lost season for Hall. 
    • I think it’s the right move. He excelled in this role until late in the season. They tried to force Lopez into being a SP for so long until they finally realized what he does best. But, that may have been more out of necessity. 
    • All good points.  I guess we will see.
    • I think he starts at Aberdeen as well but that's a poor move.  He has no business being in A ball at his age if he is as advanced as they have let us to believe.  He's going to go to Aberdeen and struggle to hit for power and have a good BA and OBP.  He will basically be the same player we saw in Delmarva playing against similar competition (i.e., the guys he faced in low A will not be in high A).  Just put him in Bowie and let him go.  Keep him there for the first half of the season and see what happens next.
    • The O's have Henderson, Westburg, Norby, Ortiz and Hernaiz in the middle infield. Vavra in theory too. Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, Neustrom, Cowser, Kjerstad and some of the recent draftees in the OF.  You can see where the trades are going to come from. Some real talent here. As to your point, yes, Norby can hit. He's a hell of a prospect who shouldn't fall far down Tony's list. Notice that in the last power rankings he's above Westburg. People are sleeping on this kid a bit. They shouldn't.
    • I think they know right now that Baumann is likely to be a reliever but that they will try him as a starter. You are ignoring too many things though: 1) They cut back on Wells' innings.  He was pitching multiple innings early on but they made him a 1 inning guy.  That isn't really an indication that they are going to extend him the next year. 2) He hasn't pitched starter innings since 2018.  That's a long time ago.   3) Baumann, coming off an elbow injury, was still kept as a starter and was Brought up to the majors to start.  They didn't put him in the pen.  They didn't reduce his innings as the year went on.   These are all signs that point to Wells as a reliever being close to set in stone.  I agree that he should be given a chance to start but the obviously the Os feel differently.  I mean, there is literally not one shred of evidence out there that says the O's believe in him as a starter.
    • If he develops into a guy who can play a good LF, hit lots of line drives in the gaps, get on base and run well then he doesn’t really need to hit a lot of home runs to be a success. Sounds like a future 1/2 hitter to me. Let Mayo drive him in 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...