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ofan239

New shortstop option

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You ask about Hays' upside and then go on to mention the risk. I get the risk, but surely you see the upside in a guy who plays a plus CF and hits with plus power. His warts are OBP and health, kind of like Adam Jones when he was young. Heck, I think Hays is a better CF than Jones with a similar hit tool. Health is the big concern there.

I could be wrong on Cronenworth, but I smell something very fishy when a team imports an expensive foreign player who has never played against this level of competition when they have a guy in-house who is that good. Either they think they got a great deal on a foreign stud (which is possible), or he has real warts too.

I like Hays a lot but he’s far more likely to never be anything because he can’t stay healthy.  You can talk about all the potential you want but the best ability is availability and Hays doesn’t have that ability.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

I like Hays a lot but he’s far more likely to never be anything because he can’t stay healthy.  You can talk about all the potential you want but the best ability is availability and Hays doesn’t have that ability.

On this point, you'll either be right or wrong. I don't know the answer. I'm not ready to draw that conclusion yet though, and I'm not trading that profile from this particular organization. 

If Hays works out, it's a boon for us. If we trade him for a league-average regular, I don't see the point. I think you can find them.

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44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cronenworth is every bit as likely to be a starter as Hays is.

I am not sure what to make of Cronenworth.    He was a .769 OPS hitter as a minor leaguer.   About a week before the Rays traded him to the Padres, Fangraphs listed the Rays’ top 56 prospects and Cronenworth wasn’t even listed.   He was amazing in his first 31 games through 8/31 (1.034 OPS), then went ice cold the rest of the way (.543 in his last 23 games).    So is he another Yaz, or is he a guy who had a hot month and was fortunate that the short season ended when it did?

As to Hays, there’s lots of uncertainty there too.  His track record in 272 PA spread over 2017, 2019 and 2020 is not as good as Cronenworth’s in 192 PA, all in 2020.     But his MiL pedigree is significantly stronger, and he’s younger.    Overall, I doubt I’d trade Hays for Cronenworth even up if I were making decisions for the O’s.    But that may be the homer in me talking.   

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7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

On this point, you'll either be right or wrong. I don't know the answer. I'm not ready to draw that conclusion yet though, and I'm not trading that profile from this particular organization. 

If Hays works out, it's a boon for us. If we trade him for a league-average regular, I don't see the point. I think you can find them.

FTR, I’m not saying I would make the deal mentioned.  I certainly wouldn’t do it for Diaz.

That being said, I see zero reason to overrate Hays and have some belief that he will be out long term CFer.  Until he can get through a season healthy and performing well, he’s nothing.  Love the upside and the player but right now, he’s a 4th or 5th OFer at best.

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am not sure what to make of Cronenworth.    He was a .769 OPS hitter as a minor leaguer.   About a week before the Rays traded him to the Padres, Fangraphs listed the Rays’ top 56 prospects and Cronenworth wasn’t even listed.   He was amazing in his first 31 games through 8/31 (1.034 OPS), then went ice cold the rest of the way (.543 in his last 23 games).    So is he another Yaz, or is he a guy who had a hot month and was fortunate that the short season ended when it did?

As to Hays, there’s lots of uncertainty there too.  His track record in 272 PA spread over 2017, 2019 and 2020 is not as good as Cronenworth’s in 192 PA, all in 2020.     But his MiL pedigree is significantly stronger, and he’s younger.    Overall, I doubt I’d trade Hays for Cronenworth even up if I were making decisions for the O’s.    But that may be the homer in me talking.   

You quoted Cronenworth 767 OPS in the minors but you ignored the 375 OBP.  He is a on base guy, not a power hitter.   He's a #2 hitter in a good lineup.  He hit for a 949 OPS in 406 plate appearance in the International League at age 25.      That is more than a hot month.  He followed that with a 354 OBP in the majors at 26 as a rookie.

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37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You quoted Cronenworth 767 OPS in the minors but you ignored the 375 OBP.  He is a on base guy, not a power hitter.   He's a #2 hitter in a good lineup.  He hit for a 949 OPS in 406 plate appearance in the International League at age 25.      That is more than a hot month.  He followed that with a 354 OBP in the majors at 26 as a rookie.

If I’m only going to use one statistic, OPS is far more revelatory than OBP.    I take your point that Cronenworth has been a good OBP guy throughout his career, and that he had a very nice AAA season in 2019.    It doesn’t necessarily change my view that his first month may have been just a momentary hot spell.   Since you like OBP, his OBP in Sept. was .275.    I’ve never seen the guy play, and I don’t have a definitive opinion on whether he just had a hot month or whether he’s a late bloomer.     

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Cronenworth was a house on fire for a chunk of last season.  I am not sure of the defensive profile - though it seems he may carve out a role as a 300-400 AB super-utility guy on that team.  It is a crazy amount of talent amassed in San Diego after what seemed like a failed run just a few years ago. 

It is an interesting question whether to trade one of Diaz/Hays for him - I think both Os prospects are more likely to be regulars.  Hays has a stronger minor league resume, but jury is still out on his ability to hit major league pitching.

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55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I’m only going to use one statistic, OPS is far more revelatory than OBP.    I take your point that Cronenworth has been a good OBP guy throughout his career, and that he had a very nice AAA season in 2019.    It doesn’t necessarily change my view that his first month may have been just a momentary hot spell.   Since you like OBP, his OBP in Sept. was .275.    I’ve never seen the guy play, and I don’t have a definitive opinion on whether he just had a hot month or whether he’s a late bloomer.     

Yes OPS reveals more than OBP. But you also have to take into account the needs of your team . We have so many players who fit the Adam jones mold of a baseball player . Good player can slug with the best of anyone on any given night but have a  career obp of about .320. Do you know how much better  our offense would be if we had just 2 or three guys that could get on base ahead of Mountcastle , Mancini , Santander and later Rutschman ? Think Markakis , roberts types and not jones Trumbo . I believe Cronenworth could bring some of that . And if not we have dealt from surplus , we have a guy that could be a super utility player all over the field and could help us some in the near term . I really don’t see the downside here . This is all based on mutual interest of the padres of course .

Edited by ofan239
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57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I’m only going to use one statistic, OPS is far more revelatory than OBP.    I take your point that Cronenworth has been a good OBP guy throughout his career, and that he had a very nice AAA season in 2019.    It doesn’t necessarily change my view that his first month may have been just a momentary hot spell.   Since you like OBP, his OBP in Sept. was .275.    I’ve never seen the guy play, and I don’t have a definitive opinion on whether he just had a hot month or whether he’s a late bloomer.     

wOBA for me.

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44 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

Yes OPS reveals more than OBP. But you also have to take into account the needs of your team . We have so many players who fit the Adam jones mold of a baseball player . Good player can slug with the best of anyone on any given night but have a  career obp of about .320. Do you know how much better  our offense would be if we had just 2 or three guys that could get on base ahead of Mountcastle , Mancini , Santander and later Rutschman ? Think Markakis , roberts types and not jones Trumbo . I believe Cronenworth could bring some of that . And if not we have dealt from surplus , we have a guy that could be a super utility player all over the field and could help us some in the near term . I really don’t see the downside here . This is all based on mutual interest of the padres of course .

To quote my beloved father, “you make a cogent point.”

A team needs assets to complement those that it already has. Having Nate McLouth leading off was a great thing even though I think he only had 12 home runs in 2013. For him a single was as good as a double, and he got lots of singles, not so many homers. somebody like him would be a great thing.

 

edit: Well, I looked up McLouth, and his OBP actually was not all that great. I guess that everybody else on the team had percentages that made him look great, ha ha.

Edited by Philip

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Post-Darvish reports Cubs aggressively shopping Contreras, so will be interesting to see if they just move Baez too off a bad year, or hope he starts good on the zombie remains of the last good Cubs team.  

I didn't expect the Cubs would be one of the other 29 we'd become better than imminently, but could be quick.   The fact that they and the Astros were the original deepest tankers, got their flag, and are now about to do it again - I could imagine that gives more process political cover than say the Rangers or Rockies might have.

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I’m wondering what it means that the Cubs are blowing up a very solid team for basically salary relief? The NL Central is weak and all the teams are weaker. Does this mean something about back room discussion about the season?

if so, what would that mean for the Os?

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Maybe the Padres are the right team, but the OP asks for the wrong shortstop - not Cronenworth, but former elite prospect (somewhat similar to the Felix Pie trade) Jorge Mateo.  Mateo still has some prospect upside, should be at least a decent defensive shortstop but struggled with major league pitching in a sss in 2020.  Perhaps Mateo is ideal and cheap for the bench role the Padres have in store for him, but maybe he could produce a nice return if given a full time major league shortstop opportunity.

 

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