Darvish Trade: Orioles Equivalent

[Ridgway22]

Looking at the Padres acquisition of Yu Darvish (3 years and $59 million left on contract) and a decent catcher in Caratini, curious as to the equivalent the O's would have given up. I'm looking forward to the day when we're on the cusp and making these kinds of trades to try and push us over the top.....

Padres gave up Zach Davies, who would easily have been out #1 starter last year, posting a 7-4 2.73 ERA with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9, so the closest thing we have is John Means? In addition, they gave up prospects 15, 17, 18, 20 (Preciado, Mena, Santana, Caissie)

So, for the O's to pull off same thing (yes, yes, yes, Padres system is probably stronger than ours, etc) the package would have looked something like this:

Using BA list from early 2020:

John Means
Keegan Akin
Kyle Stowers
Carter Baumler
Anthony Servideo

Using Tony's list from October:

John Means
Coby Mayo
Alex Wells
Drew Rom
Brenan Hanifee

If we're in a position where Means was our #3 starter, and we're in the hunt for a ring, would make for some fascinating discussions here at the Hangout.

[LookinUp]

But the huge caveat is what the respective teams thought of those players, not necessarily the rankings. Two young international guys were part of that deal. It's quite possible that one team or both valued those guys higher than a status of 15-20 would indicate. Also, as you said, this is the Padres system. They're not exactly chopped liver to be top 20 in that system in any circumstance.

You did pick a couple of interesting options though with Baumler and Mayo. Who knows how they'll be rated in a year or two. Both have upside.

[OrioleDog]

Eh, I think this is the Padres basically cutting Zach Davies, but I'm sure they appreciate his good performance.  He and Hendricks may not serve each other well as rotation mates, but they also might not be that before the offseason is over.

I was surprised by the anonymity of the prospect group, but am positive those guys all showed well behind the 2020 curtain, with probably an A-ball All-Star or two if those leagues played.  

The deep depth aspect of it reminded me of the Bundy trade, and I think a fun can to kick given Oriole exuberance would be is Bradish the most valuable in this basket of eight, enough so that we might not give our ex-Angels for their ex-Padres.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

But the huge caveat is what the respective teams thought of those players, not necessarily the rankings. Two young international guys were part of that deal. It's quite possible that one team or both valued those guys higher than a status of 15-20 would indicate. Also, as you said, this is the Padres system. They're not exactly chopped liver to be top 20 in that system in any circumstance.

You did pick a couple of interesting options though with Baumler and Mayo. Who knows how they'll be rated in a year or two. Both have upside.

If only the Padres valued them higher than their prospect rank they would have been loathe to give them up.

[MurphDogg]

Davies doesn't have anywhere near the value Means has. Davies is a year from free agency, and is looking at a $6+ million salary. Means has just over 2 years of service time.

Last year, in 12 starts, was the first season that Davies had a season nearly as good as Means 2019 season.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Davies doesn't have anywhere near the value Means has. Davies is a year from free agency, and is looking at a $6+ million salary. Means has just over 2 years of service time.

Last year, in 12 starts, was the first season that Davies had a season nearly as good as Means 2019 season.

Yea, Davis was as much to offset the salary the Padres were taking on as anything. 

If the Cubs go full tank this year I would expect Davies to be traded during the season.

[ThomasTomasz]

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Eh, I think this is the Padres basically cutting Zach Davies, but I'm sure they appreciate his good performance.  He and Hendricks may not serve each other well as rotation mates, but they also might not be that before the offseason is over.

I was surprised by the anonymity of the prospect group, but am positive those guys all showed well behind the 2020 curtain, with probably an A-ball All-Star or two if those leagues played.  

The deep depth aspect of it reminded me of the Bundy trade, and I think a fun can to kick given Oriole exuberance would be is Bradish the most valuable in this basket of eight, enough so that we might not give our ex-Angels for their ex-Padres.

Darvish is an oft-injured pitcher who is 34, and has $60 million left on his contract.  This is a salary dump with some lottery tickets added for the Cubs.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Davies doesn't have anywhere near the value Means has. Davies is a year from free agency, and is looking at a $6+ million salary. Means has just over 2 years of service time.

Last year, in 12 starts, was the first season that Davies had a season nearly as good as Means 2019 season.

Also, Means’s K/9, BB/9 and WHIP were all better than Davies so it’s sort of odd or backwards to list out those numbers for Davies and sort of hand wavingly say “I guess the closest thing we have is Means” 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Also, Means’s K/9, BB/9 and WHIP were all better than Davies so it’s sort of odd or backwards to list out those numbers for Davies and sort of hand wavingly say “I guess the closest thing we have is Means” 

Davies has a five year track record as a very solid 3/4 starter.    3.79 ERA, 9.7 rWAR.   Means is 2-3 months younger but has been a major leaguer for three fewer seasons than Davies.   I think it’s very fair to say Davies is the more established pitcher and has the higher floor of the two.    Means is less experienced and had his ups and downs last year, but may have more upside than Davies.    If you ignored their salaries/service time, I’d be hard pressed to say which one I’d prefer to have going forward.   But obviously the salary and service time issues loom large  here.  

[Sanfran327]

It IS possible... from ESPN of all places: 

Quote

The Padres are proof that organizations can resist this instinct. They are a middle-of-the-pack-revenue team that operates in MLB's fourth-smallest media market. They are the ones that, in theory, should be getting squashed by the leviathans of a sport without a salary cap. Instead, they are giddy to take advantage of the game's state of affairs. They have an owner, Peter Seidler, who is willing to spend, and a general manager, A.J. Preller, whose creativity and aggressiveness landed Snell and Darvish to complement a team that for the next three seasons also can run out Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Dinelson Lamet, Trent Grisham, Chris Paddack, Jake Cronenworth, Ha-seong Kim and a slew of young talent on the cusp of the major leagues.

 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

It IS possible... from ESPN of all places: 

 

What is possible?

I must say, I’m enjoying what the Padres are doing.   Their window has opened and they are going for it - no half measures here.    Their battles with the Dodgers should be epic over the next several years.    
 

In support of SG’s position, the Padres built a great farm system without picking super high in the draft.   Their top picks for the last six years: 

2015 - no 1st round pick

 2016 - 8

2017 - 3

2018 - 7

2019 - 6

2020 - 8

Their no. 3 pick appears to have been well spent - MacKenzie Gore is considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.  

[Sanfran327]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What is possible?

I must say, I’m enjoying what the Padres are doing.   Their window has opened and they are going for it - no half measures here.    Their battles with the Dodgers should be epic over the next several years.    
 

In support of SG’s position, the Padres built a great farm system without picking super high in the draft.   Their top picks for the last six years: 

2015 - no 1st round pick

 2016 - 8

2017 - 3

2018 - 7

2019 - 6

2020 - 8

Their no. 3 pick appears to have been well spent - MacKenzie Gore is considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.  

For clubs to do business this winter. And do it aggressively. 

I'm with you - I like seeing this. It's a little curious because they're up against a much bigger gun in the Dodgers in their own division, but I like it from a fan's perspective. I'd be thrilled right now if the Padres were my team. 

This has been an excruciatingly slow offseason. Not just for us, which was to be expected, but for everyone. Good for them.

[Tryptamine]

I know they're young so everyone likes to use throw away terms like "lottery tickets" but 3 of the 4 prospects the Cubs got were in the Fantrax top 250 and several have said they may put Preciado in the top 100 as he has already surpassed Robert Puasson who was the #2 prospect in the 2019 international class. So yes they're very far off,but 3 of them have big impact upside albeit risky.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I know they're young so everyone likes to use throw away terms like "lottery tickets" but 3 of the 4 prospects the Cubs got were in the Fantrax top 250 and several have said they may put Preciado in the top 100 as he has already surpassed Robert Puasson who was the #2 prospect in the 2019 international class. So yes they're very far off,but 3 of them have big impact upside albeit risky.

I feel that they got a good return as it was a salary deal.

[Tryptamine]

18 hours ago, weams said:

I feel that they got a good return as it was a salary deal.

It was certainly disappointing as a fan because this means a rebuild is coming instead of the 1 or 2 year retool we thought was coming, but value wise I thought it was pretty good. 2 if not 3 of those prospects will be top 10 in the system by the asb and when added to cristian hernandez and Ed Howard the farm is pretty loaded at the lowest levels.