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Frobby

MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

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They had the #2 pick in the draft, traded for four top-30 prospects and only graduated Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey.

In 2021 they will almost certainly graduate Mountcastle, Akin and Kremer (all in the top 15) and could graduate Diaz, Baumann, (less likely) Rutschman, and Kevin Smith from the top 15.

I can't see them trading for any more top-30 prospects, Alex Cobb would have to be lights out to net one and there are no other obvious candidates to be traded.

Would be tough to repeat as most improved next year.

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15 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

They had the #2 pick in the draft, traded for four top-30 prospects and only graduated Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey.

In 2021 they will almost certainly graduate Mountcastle, Akin and Kremer (all in the top 15) and could graduate Diaz, Baumann, (less likely) Rutschman, and Kevin Smith from the top 15.

I can't see them trading for any more top-30 prospects, Alex Cobb would have to be lights out to net one and there are no other obvious candidates to be traded.

Would be tough to repeat as most improved next year.

They will probably trade Mancini.   There will be other beside Cobb that will go over the next year and their value will be determined by how they do in 2021.    Sanchez at the deadline.   Severino, Valaika, Armstrong and Sisco because of their arbitration costs.    Stewart and Shaw because they will probably be out of options.  

Right now we look at these players and say they will not bring a return but if any of them have good years in 2021 they could raise their trade value and bring prospects back for next year's list.

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This qualifies as acceptable right?  I certainly don't think it's laudable considering how much of the team's resources have been geared toward this goal. 

Can't say I'm happy to see a playoff team in the division rank ahead of us.

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40 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

They had the #2 pick in the draft, traded for four top-30 prospects and only graduated Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey.

In 2021 they will almost certainly graduate Mountcastle, Akin and Kremer (all in the top 15) and could graduate Diaz, Baumann, (less likely) Rutschman, and Kevin Smith from the top 15.

I can't see them trading for any more top-30 prospects, Alex Cobb would have to be lights out to net one and there are no other obvious candidates to be traded.

Would be tough to repeat as most improved next year.

To do it, some of the improvement will have to be internal, i.e. players who are considered mid-tier prospects now stepping up their game and becoming top tier prospects.    Same player, different perception.   I agree there won’t be as many opportunities to add to the farm system from external sources.   As I alluded to elsewhere, it would be nice if some of the international players we signed last year and then in January actually showed enough talent to crack the Top 30 list.   We’ll still be short of other teams right now, but anything’s an improvement on an empty cupboard.  

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This qualifies as acceptable right?  I certainly don't think it's laudable considering how much of the team's resources have been geared toward this goal. 

Can't say I'm happy to see a playoff team in the division rank ahead of us.

Tampa is downright scary.   Their farm system was already considered the best in baseball, and it just got better when they traded Snell.  And, even without Snell, their major league team is way better than ours.   I’m having trouble seeing the scenario where we finish ahead of them any time in the next 5-7 years.   Of course, I do think a time will come (much sooner than that) when we’ll be adding significant free agents to complement our home grown players, while Tampa won’t be doing that.

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33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They will probably trade Mancini.   There will be other beside Cobb that will go over the next year and their value will be determined by how they do in 2021.    Sanchez at the deadline.   Severino, Valaika, Armstrong and Sisco because of their arbitration costs.    Stewart and Shaw because they will probably be out of options.  

Right now we look at these players and say they will not bring a return but if any of them have good years in 2021 they could raise their trade value and bring prospects back for next year's list.

Nah, they aren't trading Mancini in his comeback season from cancer. He is the face of the team, like it or not, they would be excoriated.

I suppose if Yolmer Sanchez did what Iglesias did this season he could net a 25-30 level prospect at the deadline, but certainly not anything that would move the needle.

None of those other guys are getting a top-30 prospect in return. They are far more likely to be straight up released than even get a 25 year-old AA player or a 20 year-old DSL player in exchange, let alone a top-30 prospect. I would actually argue that the next most likely player to be traded for a top-30 prospect in 2021 (after Sanchez) would be Tanner Scott.

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3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, they aren't trading Mancini in his comeback season from cancer. He is the face of the team, like it or not, they would be excoriated.

I suppose if Yolmer Sanchez did what Iglesias did this season he could net a 25-30 level prospect at the deadline, but certainly not anything that would move the needle.

None of those other guys are getting a top-30 prospect in return. They are far more likely to be straight up released than even get a 25 year-old AA player or a 20 year-old DSL player in exchange, let alone a top-30 prospect. I would actually argue that the next most likely player to be traded for a top-30 prospect in 2021 (after Sanchez) would be Tanner Scott.

I don't think Elias cares, so if you are right, I think it would be coming from ownership.

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To do it, some of the improvement will have to be internal, i.e. players who are considered mid-tier prospects now stepping up their game and becoming top tier prospects.    Same player, different perception.   I agree there won’t be as many opportunities to add to the farm system from external sources.   As I alluded to elsewhere, it would be nice if some of the international players we signed last year and then in January actually showed enough talent to crack the Top 30 list.   We’ll still be short of other teams right now, but anything’s an improvement on an empty cupboard.  

Yup, obviously that is the only way but it seems unlikely that enough players will improve dramatically enough to overcome the loss of however many players graduate. 

With the exception of the Tigers (who picked first), all the teams listed graduated relatively few players AND made either several trades (like the Orioles) or significant trades to bolster their farm system. The 2021 Orioles are unlikely to do either.

Not to say that the O's farm system can't still be above average in a year, just that it is unlikely to be markedly improved from this year due to graduations and lack of trade candidates.

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8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, they aren't trading Mancini in his comeback season from cancer. He is the face of the team, like it or not, they would be excoriated.

I suppose if Yolmer Sanchez did what Iglesias did this season he could net a 25-30 level prospect at the deadline, but certainly not anything that would move the needle.

None of those other guys are getting a top-30 prospect in return. They are far more likely to be straight up released than even get a 25 year-old AA player or a 20 year-old DSL player in exchange, let alone a top-30 prospect. I would actually argue that the next most likely player to be traded for a top-30 prospect in 2021 (after Sanchez) would be Tanner Scott.

Means and Scott might get a good return. Maybe even Santander.

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17 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Nah, they aren't trading Mancini in his comeback season from cancer. He is the face of the team, like it or not, they would be excoriated.

I suppose if Yolmer Sanchez did what Iglesias did this season he could net a 25-30 level prospect at the deadline, but certainly not anything that would move the needle.

None of those other guys are getting a top-30 prospect in return. They are far more likely to be straight up released than even get a 25 year-old AA player or a 20 year-old DSL player in exchange, let alone a top-30 prospect. I would actually argue that the next most likely player to be traded for a top-30 prospect in 2021 (after Sanchez) would be Tanner Scott.

Mountcastle, Santander and Means are the face of the team.  Elias is adopting the Tampa model.  Mancini will be traded before the O's commit to his 2022 arbitration salary if he stays healthy.

I didn't say any of those guys would bring a good return now.  But if they have a good 2021 season.......

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

This qualifies as acceptable right?  I certainly don't think it's laudable considering how much of the team's resources have been geared toward this goal. 

Can't say I'm happy to see a playoff team in the division rank ahead of us.

Not to mention, most of these guys where here before Elias got here and Rutschman was put in his lap.

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