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Frobby

MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

The difference in R1 isn’t significant once you get past the first few picks.  After that, it matters very little especially within the context of losing games on purpose for several years.

Eh.

The amount of money teams can spend goes down pretty sharply the deeping into the draft you go.

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5 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm more of an Adley Optimist than an Angelos Pessimist, but we're really a year away from knowing.

I mean I think for like $25M in 2021 cash we could perhaps have like 3B Franco, SS Andrelton and 2B Profar, and if you use Adley and the Best Pitchers almost immediately, I don't think the 2021 Red Sox/Blue Jays are much different than that.

All four of them might have dominated the high minors already, so if they can in April/May, I'll be restless in June wanting them to get their lumps out of the way before '22.   We might have 22 0-to-3 guys on the '22 roster in shouting distance of the Rays regular cohort where a latter day Tejada character bridges the gap.

I like the potential of the team long term...but you can still be better now and help supplement the long term team while also helping the team in the short run.

2020 really cost us knowing what we have with our young talent.  

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32 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Maybe it has always been there, but Cot's has highlighted recently a franchise list of Free Agent Signings 1991-2020

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zTdfmqV5StGaum1yFmPvsvNKdC5__QQW-7h4bPTEWUA/edit#gid=165240331

There's a worksheet sorted by $$$ and one by year - the yearly one is a blast to peruse.   Frank Wren famously bolted after one year, but he also did give a 4-year contract to Age 33 Mike Timlin.

Across the 30 years we've spent a touch over $1B on MLB free agents, 12th among all MLB clubs.

That's right in line with my assumptions.  They've almost always been willing to spend an average-ish amount on MLB player payroll and mid-tier declining free agents, but very, very little emphasis has been placed on keeping up in everything else like development, scouting, information technology, international academies, minor league and spring infrastructure, analytics, draft overslots, etc, etc.

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just saying McDonalds can open 100 stores and that taco joint down the road can open a second location and only one has 100% growth.

And yes, all of this conversation is based off this one guy's article.  You are bringing this up now why?  You knew that was going to be the case when you clicked on the thread.  You knew that was the case for all of your other comments in this thread.

You're right, I should just stay away more because I don't find it pleasurable to read thread after thread about how Angelos is ultracheap, Elias is barely able to keep up, the rebuild is probably going to fail and was ill-advised to begin with, and the whole organization is probably hopeless.

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One thing I’ll say about this “most improved” list.    Since no MiL games were played in 2020, it’s not possible to know which teams’ incumbent players made significant improvements.    And I do think that normally, this would be a significant factor in rating which teams’ systems were most improved.     

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

One thing I’ll say about this “most improved” list.    Since no MiL games were played in 2020, it’s not possible to know which teams’ incumbent players made significant improvements.    And I do think that normally, this would be a significant factor in rating which teams’ systems were most improved.     

Of course..any list like this coming off the clusterf*** of 2020 is meaningless.  We have no idea who improved. 
 

It’s really all speculation.  2020 hurt everyone but I think it hurt a team like the Os more than others.  

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19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And what has this FO done to deserve those kudos anyway?  

SG asked...

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

This org seems to be developing players better than at any point since the early 80's. They're also developing winning teams at all levels for the first time in my memory. It's why the top 30 is deeper than at any point I can remember, and hopefully some international guys start to fill that in too. 

This is all Elias and Sig. Sure, some would have done fine under a normal regime, but this is a sea change. If you can't see that, you're not looking.

I answered...

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Everything you say may be true..but it’s all based off of 1 season.  It means nothing until we see it more and consistently at higher levels.

SG dismisses...

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t get me wrong, Elias is a good GM.  I’m glad we have him. ...

This is nothing but an excuse for the Angelos family to be cheap. 

SG moves the ball.

It might be easier to just type GET OFF MY LAWN, copy, paste, repeat.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

SG asked...

I answered...

SG dismisses...

SG moves the ball.

It might be easier to just type GET OFF MY LAWN, copy, paste, repeat.

How am I moving the ball?  You are telling me that they deserve kudos because, in your words “they SEEM to be developing players better than since the early 80s”  and that happened in ONE season (which btw is inconclusive because it’s not like everyone improves)?

So, “seems” and one year are enough for you to think they deserve kudos?  I haven’t moved anything.  I have said one year isn’t enough for them to get kudos as of yet.  What happens if players take a step back in 2021?  Are you taking your kudos away?

I think they deserve a lot of kudos for starting things on the right path and getting our ownership to buy in.  Giving them kudos for minimal results in a SSS is a bit over the top to me.  
 

I mean, you guys want to point to what Elias did in Houston (not that he was the only one).  Ok, well answer me this..what young pitching was developed, through their system, over the last 5 or so years (years where in assuming he gained more and more control) of him being with the organization?

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You're arguing just to argue at this point.

He's a good GM, but doesn't deserve kudos. Ok. If that's your position, go with it.

To me, he's doing the most important thing a GM can do, which is build a sturdy foundation of drafting/ Intl signing/player development. If that is nurtured and sustained, we'll have a chance to compete perennially. For years people have talked about doing this and failed. Elias is actually doing it. 

I guess I can't give kudos until the World Series rings are put on the player's fingers, but this is just a silly conversation at this point, to me.

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6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You're arguing just to argue at this point.

He's a good GM, but doesn't deserve kudos. Ok. If that's your position, go with it.

To me, he's doing the most important thing a GM can do, which is build a sturdy foundation of drafting/ Intl signing/player development. If that is nurtured and sustained, we'll have a chance to compete perennially. For years people have talked about doing this and failed. Elias is actually doing it. 

I guess I can't give kudos until the World Series rings are put on the player's fingers, but this is just a silly conversation at this point, to me.

The topic of this discussion is does Elias deserve kudos for us having the 4th most improved system.

Im not arguing just to argue.  In discussing that question.  I’m sorry that not everything is orange colored glasses for me and that I don’t fall at the feet of Elias.  
I think he’s doing a good job and I’m glad he’s here.  He’s the best thing to happen to our organization in several decades.  However, 2020 told us nothing about our prospects, so labeling a system “4th most improved” in a year where you got very little info is pretty meaningless.  On top of that, Elias only had 1 MiL season prior to 2020 to show “improvement”. That 1 year was certainly trending in the right direction but 1 year is an Incredibly SSS when it comes to this topic.

I have belief in Elias and the FO and I like the young talent we have.  I expected the team to be better in 2020 than most because of those players.  I expect them to be more competitive in 2021 than most for the same reason.

But at the end of the day, the jury is still out on Elias and if what he is doing will produce the results we are looking for.

Kudos for the process and doing the obvious things this organization needed.  But in terms of does he deserve kudos for actual performance and development of these guys?  That’s up in the air right now.

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On 12/30/2020 at 4:42 PM, hoosiers said:

I think we will graduate Mountcastle and AR among our top 100 crop.  It is entirely conceivable that our #5 overall pick in 2021 could make a top 100 list and that GHenderson improves to the point of being a top 100 player.  Remember, our 2020 draft consisted of passing on a reputed top talent for Kjerstad and a bundle of other talent.  Hoping/expecting that the other talent develops into quality prospects is the plan.  So hopefully, that comes to fruition. Also, remember that the 2020 draft was somewhat of a crapshoot considering the lack of reduced scouting exposure - one has to hope that our front office excelled in that draft - a hope all fans have for their teams, but there will be winners and losers from that draft in that some teams will look at the first rounders and realize they really have a third round talent on their hands and some will end up with strong, strong drafts.

We do have tradeable talent in Santander, Mancini and others - perhaps Means.  Last year, our front office turned Milone, Iggy and Bleier into prospects.  There is every reason to hope this can be repeated in 2021.

The Rays have set themselves up in an unbelievable - almost unprecedented position.  Consistent top farm team, consistent contender.  They will trade anyone, but one has to pay a premium and other teams consistently pay it.  I am not sure if our front office intends to operate this way or whether we would keep higher end talent.  When I proposed dealing Wieters, Davis and others around 2012-2014, it was widely ridiculed, but that is how the better run franchises operate, but they operate in that fashion because they HAVE TO, the Orioles would have to mimic that behavior and re-cycle top players for a larger pool of younger, prospect talent as a matter of choice - and very few teams have been able to do that.  Most teams have a "window" to compete and act accordingly.

It is such a simple process and so easy to implement I don’t understand why teams don’t do it. Trade your guy at peak value. Don’t sign extensions, don’t sign expensive free agents: trade your present value For future value. Repeat as necessary.

 

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12 minutes ago, Philip said:

It is such a simple process and so easy to implement I don’t understand why teams don’t do it. Trade your guy at peak value. Don’t sign extensions, don’t sign expensive free agents: trade your present value For future value. Repeat as necessary.

 

He's joking right?  He doesn't actually think it's a simple process?

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7 minutes ago, Philip said:

It is such a simple process and so easy to implement I don’t understand why teams don’t do it. Trade your guy at peak value. Don’t sign extensions, don’t sign expensive free agents: trade your present value For future value. Repeat as necessary.

I admire how Tampa does this, but it’s not as simple as you make it out to be.    You have to be a very good judge of when your player has reached his peak value, and which young players from other organizations will pan out to be good major league players.    And, if you have a contending team, trading a top player is likely to make your team worse in the short run.   Fans don’t like getting the rug pulled out from them when they have a contending team, nor do they like losing players who have produced for their team.   So, if you do this, you’d better be right in your player judgments more often than you’re wrong.   Tampa has certainly done that for the most part.   

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I admire how Tampa does this, but it’s not as simple as you make it out to be.    You have to be a very good judge of when your player has reached his peak value, and which young players from other organizations will pan out to be good major league players.    And, if you have a contending team, trading a top player is likely to make your team worse in the short run.   Fans don’t like getting the rug pulled out from them when they have a contending team, nor do they like losing players who have produced for their team.   So, if you do this, you’d better be right in your player judgments more often than you’re wrong.   Tampa has certainly done that for the most part.   

Just don’t keep players past 30 years old.  There will be exceptions to that rule but for the most part, that’s a pretty simple way to look at it. More often than not, you won’t regret the decision.

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I admire how Tampa does this, but it’s not as simple as you make it out to be.    You have to be a very good judge of when your player has reached his peak value, and which young players from other organizations will pan out to be good major league players.    And, if you have a contending team, trading a top player is likely to make your team worse in the short run.   Fans don’t like getting the rug pulled out from them when they have a contending team, nor do they like losing players who have produced for their team.   So, if you do this, you’d better be right in your player judgments more often than you’re wrong.   Tampa has certainly done that for the most part.   

You also need to find trading partners who are willing to give up prospects to acquire your getting expensive assets.  You can't be a seller without a buyer.  Of course a big part of that is developing players that have a high enough perceived value.

 

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