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Frobby

MLB.com: O’s farm system is the 4th-most improved

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I appreciate you conceding the point, it's a relatively rare thing in an online debate.

One more point on Cruz.  In his 20s he was tied for 741st all time in homers.  Fewer than Rafeal Furcal, or Chris Hoiles or Nate McLouth.  Well behind Ty Wigginton and Disco Dan Ford.  He had fewer homers than Hugh Duffy, who played his entire career in the 1800s when you could lead the league with 11 homers.

Since he turned 30 he has more homers than Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew.  More than Arod or any number of PED era sluggers like Steve Finley and Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi and Sammy Sosa.  More than Eddie and Yaz, Franks Thomas and Robinson.  More than all but nine players, ever.

And his top six performances in that last timeframe have come since he turned 33.  So not just his 30s, but his mid-to-late 30s.  The only players to hit more homers than Cruz from 33-39 were Bonds, Ruth, Raffy, and Aaron.

Betting on that happening is certifiably crazy.

Yes it’s really amazing. And unlike Bonds, who’s body puffed up while he was on steroids, Cruz body shape remained the same. He did caught caught, twice, I think, but if he’s still taking anything, he has something that can’t be detected.

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On 1/1/2021 at 1:09 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

It is not easy to trade the guys who you developed and became fan favorites and key members of good teams.  Everyone hates that.  Even the GM doing it hates it.  When they let Markakis go probably 75% of Orioles Hangout thought it was a terrible idea, and it just kept getting terrible-er every time someone played the outfield in Baltimore who wasn't great.  Frobby still hates it even thought it made financial and on-field sense.  Letting Nelson Cruz walk was a very Rays kind of decision, and to this day probably 90% of the board thinks that was a tragic mistake.

Yes, you have to set emotion aside when you're in the Orioles' position.  But it will always be controversial and if it doesn't work out (which it won't some of the time) the fans and the press will crucify you.

I'm saying hello to last week here, but it's a lot easier to say bye to Cruz at 34 than it is to say bye to Markakis, a lifetime Oriole, at 30.  We could have signed him to another 4 year deal and he wouldn't have really been in the danger zone in terms of dropoff, especially given his batted ball profile and his likely contract.  As it turned out, he produced ok for 3 seasons, and better than ok for 1 season, in the subsequent 4 years.  Compared to our actual outfield production that definitely would have been a major upgrade.

 

(for the record I never thought keeping Cruz was a good idea, and the idea of signing him in hindsight only looks good because he was on our team, and because the apparent alternative is Chris Davis.  IMO the only way you can justify it is if you are pretty confident that 1: he was juicing, and 2: juicing turns back the clock a few years.)

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4 hours ago, Hallas said:

I'm saying hello to last week here, but it's a lot easier to say bye to Cruz at 34 than it is to say bye to Markakis, a lifetime Oriole, at 30.  We could have signed him to another 4 year deal and he wouldn't have really been in the danger zone in terms of dropoff, especially given his batted ball profile and his likely contract.  As it turned out, he produced ok for 3 seasons, and better than ok for 1 season, in the subsequent 4 years.  Compared to our actual outfield production that definitely would have been a major upgrade.

2015 Orioles LF: .640
2015 Orioles RF:.767
2015 Markakis: .746

2016 LF: .687
2016 RF: .841
2016 Markakis: .744
(Kim and Trumbo had OPSes over .800, but the backups were so-so)

2017 LF: .702
2017 RF: .759
Markakis: .738
(Regular starters Mancini and Smith out-hit Markakis but backups like Rickard and Gentry brought averages down)

2018 LF: .692
2018 RF: .688
2018 Markakis: .806

He would have been a major upgrade in '18, and arguably a small upgrade in the other years if you shuffled around the LF/RFers.  But by midyear 2018 he probably would have been traded with the Orioles in freefall.  Nick probably would have added a small handful of wins over the life of his contract.

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3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

2015 Orioles LF: .640
2015 Orioles RF:.767
2015 Markakis: .746

2016 LF: .687
2016 RF: .841
2016 Markakis: .744
(Kim and Trumbo had OPSes over .800, but the backups were so-so)

2017 LF: .702
2017 RF: .759
Markakis: .738
(Regular starters Mancini and Smith out-hit Markakis but backups like Rickard and Gentry brought averages down)

2018 LF: .692
2018 RF: .688
2018 Markakis: .806

He would have been a major upgrade in '18, and arguably a small upgrade in the other years if you shuffled around the LF/RFers.  But by midyear 2018 he probably would have been traded with the Orioles in freefall.  Nick probably would have added a small handful of wins over the life of his contract.

For 4/44 and the possibility of an extra prospect in 2018 that seems like reasonable production.

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4 hours ago, Hallas said:

For 4/44 and the possibility of an extra prospect in 2018 that seems like reasonable production.

I'm philosophically opposed to long-term deals for 1.5 win players.  Nick looked good compared to treading water, but what if the O's had come up with a real good, young outfielder in '16 or '17 and had a 33-year-old barely average guy signed for the next few years at $11M per?  There's only so many holes you can fill every offseason, but it you can't find a corner OF who can OPS .725 you have some larger organizational issues.

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On 12/30/2020 at 4:06 PM, Frobby said:

Tampa is downright scary.   Their farm system was already considered the best in baseball, and it just got better when they traded Snell.  And, even without Snell, their major league team is way better than ours.   I’m having trouble seeing the scenario where we finish ahead of them any time in the next 5-7 years.   Of course, I do think a time will come (much sooner than that) when we’ll be adding significant free agents to complement our home grown players, while Tampa won’t be doing that.

I used to think that way, but I'm not so sure anymore. With the Orioles loss of revenue from the MASN situation along with the cut into their fanbase areas by the Nationals, I'm not so sure the Orioles will ever be at the top free agent additions again. Elias and company are going to have to start acting like Tampa because I'm not so sure we're much different anymore financially.

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The Os will be able to have a 120-150M payroll going forward.  That is plenty of money spent to field a contending team.  But you have to do things correctly.  

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That is the question we get no real info on until next offseason.

Stepping over the 6.3/6.6/6.9 seasons of Adley club control cuteness:

Machado 0-4 = $100M/team

Machado 5-7 = $150M/team

What does a decade of inflation give for the Peak Rutschman Teams?    You can sketch 2023 real sexy even on the cusp of 9 figures.   I think it can have two Lindors and stay about 90.   The upside driver is can a pitcher make it big (I won't even say two) - the rest can be Anibal Sanchezes all the way down.

The 2012 Oriole surprisers (aka Machado 1 of 7) - Cots has Year End 40-man $89M and 19th MLB-wide before $100M+ the six years thereafter.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

I am imagining the Table Stakes of building and maintaining our infrastructure is in the ballpark of $10M not $50M annually.

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23 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os will be able to have a 120-150M payroll going forward.  That is plenty of money spent to field a contending team.  But you have to do things correctly.  

??

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On 1/3/2021 at 9:55 AM, Philip said:

Yes it’s really amazing. And unlike Bonds, who’s body puffed up while he was on steroids, Cruz body shape remained the same. He did caught caught, twice, I think, but if he’s still taking anything, he has something that can’t be detected.

He was a Bio-Genesis guy. They excel at micro dosing. Close to game time. Showering for a while after. 

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

??

I think he's curious how you know what the future levels of spending would be.  Considering the change in ownership.

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Just now, weams said:

He was a Bio-Genesis guy. They excel at micro dosing. Close to game time. Showering for a while after. 

Also he was never caught by test. Only paper trail. 

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2 minutes ago, weams said:

Also he was never caught by test. Only paper trail. 

Lots of guys were not caught by test.

Could be enough to make one doubt the effectiveness of the tests.

Ever notice when someone does test positive it's for a horse steroid from the '70's?

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