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wildcard

How the vaccine effects the baseball season(updated on 1/3)

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I will say this for all us baseball crazies - when you take in the game as a pastime with the filter some of us have, everything being probabilities and law of large numbers becomes second nature.

Then you roll the dice - defensive reserves take Aroldis deep in October and its magic.

Baseball wise the industry gave us 60 and a postseason sans vaccine last year - we'll see how the golden goose gets treated.  I think I think the institution of 162 may be an underdog to outlive the next CBA and 32-team expansion someday.   I just hope the Regular Season/Post Season ratio doesn't get too badly distorted.

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47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I personally hope they get away from 162 games.

We got one experiment with an Eastern League, Central League and Western League and interleague postseason play.

154, 162 or whatever big number - its just about the Regular/Playoff ratio.  I can't think of any examples of smaller playoffs since they are revenue drivers, so if a post-COVID walkback happens that'll feel new.

Say Grayson Rodriguez is LeBron (sorry Adley, too old already).  I'd like to see him have to try his best at baseball all the time.  Walker Buehler might be Jim Palmer or Mike Mussina but I don't know that we'll ever know for sure.   But my man taking down some Whitey Ford postseason records (if they even still stand)

If 14 or 16 playoff teams are an inevitability, I think I think I want them starting on Labor Day and Best of 11/13/15/17.   The Dodgers can't complain too much if the 8th best team in the league beats them 6 times (try that Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin!).  Most definitely the last 3 games of any tied series are 7-inning, nay 5-inning, tripleheaders on the same day.   A baseball team can play 56 games in two months.   Most definitely the Bottom 16 teams play a 50% scale of the same tournament for the #1 pick.

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Hard to believe OP leaves out the J&J vaccine that should be approved in about a month.  J&J has been producing its vaccine out of two mid-west plants since July and has said it will distribute 1B vaccines in 2021.

Given the elderly and those in nursing homes are getting the vaccine early, there should be a rapid decline in the death rate starting in Feb.

There are other factors like improved therapeutics and increased testing that should have the US moving rapidly to the other side of this virus in March/April.  I think MLB could delay ST and OD around 4-6 weeks.

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1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Hard to believe OP leaves out the J&J vaccine that should be approved in about a month.  J&J has been producing its vaccine out of two mid-west plants since July and has said it will distribute 1B vaccines in 2021.

Given the elderly and those in nursing homes are getting the vaccine early, there should be a rapid decline in the death rate starting in Feb.

There are other factors like improved therapeutics and increased testing that should have the US moving rapidly to the other side of this virus in March/April.  I think MLB could delay ST and OD around 4-6 weeks.

Sorry, this is an oversight on my part.   Thanks for bringing it to my attention and to those that are reading this thread.   The J and J vaccine is an important one.

J&J reported on Jan 1st that they are in the process of getting Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA.  Early reports say it is 97% effective.   But that has not been confirmed yet.   This is the only one dose vaccine do far.

The US government reported in August that it had bought 100m doses and reserved the right to buy 200m more.

I have not found any information on when the distribution will occur.

I will update the OP.

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This article says that the MLBPA could force the MLB to start the season on time and play a full schedule.   Because the NFL is playing during Covid without fans in many cases, the MLB would be in violation of the CBA not to play.  To not play would give the basis for a lawsuit.

This is just another reason for the O's to keep their payroll low.  They may have to play without fans and lose that revenue stream until its save for fans to attend later in the season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/no-delays-expected-for-start-of-spring-training-2021-season.html

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Your statement "because the NFL is playing...the MLB would be in violation of the CBA not to play" is not true and is not reflected in the article at all.  There is no relation between what the NFL does and what is or isn't allowed by the CBA.

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9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Your statement "because the NFL is playing...the MLB would be in violation of the CBA not to play" is not true and is not reflected in the article at all.  There is no relation between what the NFL does and what is or isn't allowed by the CBA.

“With the CBA in place, however, MLB has little recourse but to start the season on time. Considering the success of the NFL and NBA to operate under the present circumstances, it would likely take a significant degradation of our present circumstances to seriously derail the season.”

I’m not sure what the CBA has to do with it, but it does sound like a requirement.

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I'm sure with the long term adversarial relationship between the MLBPA and owners, its hard to expect anything but strife.  Baseball had a golden opportunity to work together last summer and put baseball in the spotlight before other sports restarted.  Predictably, baseball screwed this opportunity.  I predict the owners and the players arguing about minutia of testing protocols, game length, schedules, playoffs, etc until about mid April and then spring training in May and the season starts in June.  Expecting baseball to do anything right takes a giant leap of faith. 

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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm sure with the long term adversarial relationship between the MLBPA and owners, its hard to expect anything but strife.  Baseball had a golden opportunity to work together last summer and put baseball in the spotlight before other sports restarted.  Predictably, baseball screwed this opportunity.  I predict the owners and the players arguing about minutia of testing protocols, game length, schedules, playoffs, etc until about mid April and then spring training in May and the season starts in June.  Expecting baseball to do anything right takes a giant leap of faith. 

It’s been 25 years since games were missed due to labor strife.   Last year’s delay was because the owners wanted it that way.   

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I am guessing if the players show up for work the owners don't have a choice but to pay the players in full for the season.  I am sure there was nothing in the CBA that the owners would have the right to cut the number of games in a season because no one is allowed to attend the games.  

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On 1/4/2021 at 12:12 PM, Frobby said:

It’s been 25 years since games were missed due to labor strife.   Last year’s delay was because the owners wanted it that way.   

I respect you and agree with you way more than not.

I do differ with you on your statement about the owners wanted it that way.

Seams to me, there was enough blame to be shamed along both sides. The players were not innocent poster children

I do believe one statement about the vaccine that I came across, we will see be dealing with covid until the end of 2021 before we see real improvement.

 

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The OP information on amounts of vaccine is fantastic but there is a major problem with administration of the vaccine.  There are just not enough people to administer the shots right now.

Some pretty reliable sources I know have said that without a concerted effort to train more people have large scale mass vaccination events the general public should not expect to be inoculated until late 3Q, maybe.

Baseball won't be able to delay unless they jump the line.  They will have to figure out how to play.

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1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

The OP information on amounts of vaccine is fantastic but there is a major problem with administration of the vaccine.  There are just not enough people to administer the shots right now.

Some pretty reliable sources I know have said that without a concerted effort to train more people have large scale mass vaccination events the general public should not expect to be inoculated until late 3Q, maybe.

Baseball won't be able to delay unless they jump the line.  They will have to figure out how to play.

Military healthcare has not been mobilize to vaccinate the public yet.  I look for that to happen after Jan 20th.  Military production act will be imposed to make sure the supplies will be available.

The OP says vaccinations by Sept.  That is late 3rd quarter.   Children are probably last before they go to school but the majority of Americans that want the vaccine are likely to get earlier than that.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Military healthcare has not been mobilize to vaccinate the public yet.  I look for that to happen after Jan 20th.  Military production act will be imposed to make sure the supplies will be available.

The OP says vaccinations by Sept.  That is late 3rd quarter.   Children are probably last before they go to school but the majority of Americans that want the vaccine are likely to get earlier than that.

I talked with my aunt who lives in Israel the other day.    They’ve already vaccinated 10% of their population.   My aunt and uncle are in their 80’s and had priority.   They just drove to a soccer stadium on the edge of town, pulled up to one of multiple booths in the parking lot, got their shots, waited fifteen minutes to ensure no adverse reaction, and left.   Boom, over and done.    

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