Realistic Competitive Date

[Sports Guy]

I guess this thread is as good as any to discuss this.

Here is the list of FAs for next offseason:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html
 

We know that some of these guys will be signed by their current clubs.  We also know players were get nontendered and there will be guys available for trades.

But for now, let’s just discuss what we know and what we know is that these players will be available as of right now.

We obviously don’t know what the Os will need going forward but let’s just identify some potential difference making talent on this list in areas of potential need for the team:

Freeman, Rizzo,  Baez, Lindor, Correa, Story, C Seager, Bryant and Conforto.

There are also several big name pitchers that are going to be older.  Depending on the lengths of their deals, maybe they would be an option but I tend to doubt they would sign with a non contending club(or at least one that is, at best, on the periphery of contention).  Stroman is probably the most realistic option.

So, of these FAs, who are you going to pay big money to and feel comfortable with that?  How many of them are going to want to sign here?  
 

If the thought is the Os start to go all in in 2022, how do they do that?

[Can_of_corn]

Even if they decide that 2022 is a season in which wins matter I don't think they are, or should, go "all in".

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if they decide that 2022 is a season in which wins matter I don't think they are, or should, go "all in".

You can’t just keep waiting around and that class is loaded with a lot of legit talent.

Problem is, they are older...of course, that’s always the issue with free agency.

[LookinUp]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can’t just keep waiting around and that class is loaded with a lot of legit talent.

Problem is, they are older...of course, that’s always the issue with free agency.

I think Elias might have a real, but desired, conundrum to deal with.

Gunnar Henderson is 19 years old. Jordan Westburg is essentially a first round pick who has impressed. Do you invest in ss/3B with them on the farm? Do you push them extra fast so they're helping when GR, AR etc. are producing? Do you invest in bridge talent which certainly wouldn't include a Correa or Seager type? Do you essentially delay a competitive window by filling those positions with replacement level players for an extra year? Does he really love them as much as they're hyped?

The answers matter because if we put our eggs in those baskets it frees up resources for other needs. Elias has to make that assessment over this season and plan accordingly.

 

[Can_of_corn]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can’t just keep waiting around and that class is loaded with a lot of legit talent.

Problem is, they are expensive compared to players making the minimum...of course, that’s always the issue with free agency.

FTFY

[OrioleDog]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess this thread is as good as any to discuss this.

Here is the list of FAs for next offseason:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html
 

We know that some of these guys will be signed by their current clubs.  We also know players were get nontendered and there will be guys available for trades.

But for now, let’s just discuss what we know and what we know is that these players will be available as of right now.

We obviously don’t know what the Os will need going forward but let’s just identify some potential difference making talent on this list in areas of potential need for the team:

Freeman, Rizzo,  Baez, Lindor, Correa, Story, C Seager, Bryant and Conforto.

There are also several big name pitchers that are going to be older.  Depending on the lengths of their deals, maybe they would be an option but I tend to doubt they would sign with a non contending club(or at least one that is, at best, on the periphery of contention).  Stroman is probably the most realistic option.

So, of these FAs, who are you going to pay big money to and feel comfortable with that?  How many of them are going to want to sign here?  
 

If the thought is the Os start to go all in in 2022, how do they do that?

Pretty much every post I write is a Lindor '22 preamble, transferrable to Correa should the Mets succeed in their play.   2021 should bring a fair amount of Oriole joy on an individual player basis, but it'll be a bummer if what's on the front of the jersey can't leapfrog next year.

Its mostly just a proxy for when does the talent on hand earn itself augmentation....maybe never stipulated!   The 2022 payroll is $50 million.   If you Davis structure Star X's $25M AAV contract Davis Year 1 $15M, Year 2 $35M, the 2022-2023 payrolls with one star run about $65M on average.   Or in 2023 we plumb 2013 Astros $26M depths...

Then it just becomes a question of Elias/Angelos's recommendations and investments - do Peak Rutschman Teams max out at 75/100/125/150/175, etc.   Buck coaxed his late Machado teams to a 3-year average of $150M, and of course they were better when they were young, scrappy and hungry (only $100M/year for 2012-2015)

Don't forget Nolan Arenado opting-out, if say in the fall we get a CBA and he wouldn't be torching tens of millions to get out of town.

Even Stroman could be a fit next winter just so long as we can guarantee no Bluedevil alternate color fan nights     For my part I will refrain from stumping for Sean Doolittle coming off his bye year for that bullpen.

If we fail to land any of the SS, the $$$$ just flows to different positions.

I will volunteer this for waiting another year (observing, very much hoping not) - Houston never bought more than Reddick as they were ascending.   Just before they got good they took our Feldman, and one time gave Colby Rasmus a Qualifying Offer (oops).   

I don't know what Elias will recommend, but the Angelos Orioles intermittent splashes are usually bigger than Josh Reddick.    As Adley is an old catcher, the Mountcastle debate is more will we tender Arb3, and them there potentially worthless high school pitchers, does cash have anywhere to go except the bottom line, or Sig Mejdal's bank account?  And Rhapsodos, lots of Rhapsodos.

I'm not clamoring to buy John Means FA years yet - maybe Kjerstad or Gunnar becomes that first Altuve/Bregman outlay.

[Sports Guy]

So Correa would be the obvious choice.  Elias knows him, he represents a potential position of need, etc...he also is more likely to leave his team vs say Corey Seager or Lindor.  I actually think I would prefer Seager but he will be a third baseman soon.

But how much do you have to give these guys?  8/240 or more?  That’s not very interesting to me.  Would rather go 6/200 or 5/190.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So Correa would be the obvious choice.  Elias knows him, he represents a potential position of need, etc...he also is more likely to leave his team vs say Corey Seager or Lindor.  I actually think I would prefer Seager but he will be a third baseman soon.

But how much do you have to give these guys?  8/240 or more?  That’s not very interesting to me.  Would rather go 6/200 or 5/190.

I just don't see the point of even speculating about guys that are going to get contracts like that.  We might as well talk about the Padres trading us Tatis.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just don't see the point of even speculating about guys that are going to get contracts like that.  We might as well talk about the Padres trading us Tatis.

And this is an extremely fair point.  I find it hard to believe this organization will pay out a contract like that, at least with this ownership.

Saying that, I would guess this is the type of thing Elias has always talked to them about.  I mean, this is why you drop the price of the team and try to have a deep organization.  It’s why the Padres can afford to sign the guys they did.  They will have star level, elite talent making very little money.  That makes it easier to sign these types of deals.

That has to have been part of that elias pitched and still pitches to them.

Of course, that doesn’t mean anything.  They may still say GFY to those types of deals and I would suspect they would.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And this is an extremely fair point.  I find it hard to believe this organization will pay out a contract like that, at least with this ownership.

Saying that, I would guess this is the type of thing Elias has always talked to them about.  I mean, this is why you drop the price of the team and try to have a deep organization.  It’s why the Padres can afford to sign the guys they did.  They will have star level, elite talent making very little money.  That makes it easier to sign these types of deals.

That has to have been part of that elias pitched and still pitches to them.

Of course, that doesn’t mean anything.  They may still say GFY to those types of deals and I would suspect they would.

I'd say most folks here think Elias was bargaining from a position of strength when it came to getting the top job here.  I'm not sure he was.  Even the Orioles job is a coveted position and just because someone is a hot name today doesn't mean they will be in demand next season.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say most folks here think Elias was bargaining from a position of strength when it came to getting the top job here.  I'm not sure he was.  Even the Orioles job is a coveted position and just because someone is a hot name today doesn't mean they will be in demand next season.

Well, he’s bargaining from a position of strength if he was the clear cut guy they wanted.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, he’s bargaining from a position of strength if he was the clear cut guy they wanted.

And we don't know that he was.  He wouldn't have know if he was.  The O's were not the only team with a position open that year and I don't recall a bidding war over his services.

We also don't know if he wanted to get out of Houston before things came crumbling down.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And we don't know that he was.  He wouldn't have know if he was.  The O's were not the only team with a position open that year and I don't recall a bidding war over his services.

We also don't know if he wanted to get out of Houston before things came crumbling down.

Well considering they paid him what they did, I think it’s pretty obvious he was in a position of power and it’s pretty obvious that they coveted him.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well considering they paid him what they did, I think it’s pretty obvious he was in a position of power and it’s pretty obvious that they coveted him.

"Highest paid first year GM in history".

I don't see an actual figure there.  He's also an Executive Vice President so his duties go beyond what a normal GM would be responsible for.  You have to figure he's making less than Dan did right?

[OrioleDog]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even the Orioles job is a coveted position

Andrelton Simmons...

Seriously though, I take some comfort from the Angelos, Tejada, Jones, Davis history that we get ONE.   The Machado Davis blunder colossal, though maybe no Adley there, and its a fun pajama wearer to have.  We probably don't need to worry about buying Adley's old knees from here.

I'll be salty by '23 if we aren't back to the $75-ish range, and Rutschman will probably be joining me wondering WTF is going on.  Obviously maybe we spread the wealth instead of one bauble, but same difference.   Its more fun to speculate about Francisco Lindor.

I don't expect us to be Rays/Indians until the extra MASN cash Peter negotiated is all gone (might be already, that's where I tap out), or ever really.   I don't look for Elias/Sig to do that either culturally - the Astros played hard all the way to the whistle, perhaps enough so to be shunned by all good players for awhile (Kevin Kiermaier getting traded there any minute).

If Madison Bumgarner weren't toast, I'd say one day Kyle Bradish or his equivalent leads the platter again, but that's another couple chapters away.   I agree generally with picking your aces in 2-3 year chunks.